We've spent weeks debating bubble teams, conference champions, and Bracketology, but now that the 2022 Women's NCAA Tournament field has been revealed, it's time to enjoy your brackets.
Picking the right Final Four is a difficult task, especially with the depth of quality national championship contenders like UConn, Stanford and South Carolina. Who are the most popular teams chosen as the public fills out their first brackets? Who are the trends underdogs and upsets so far?
Follow along as we provide daily updates on bracket trends during the 2022 Women's Tournament Challenge.
Friday recap
No. 1 South Carolina beats No. 5 North Carolina, and No. 2 Texas knocks off No. 6 Ohio State
Chalk held in the first wave of games with South Carolina and Texas advancing
44.9% of brackets have both of these teams in the Elite 8
9.1% of brackets have both of these teams in the Final 4
2.6% of brackets have these teams meeting in the Finals
No. 1 Stanford continues to roll, this time over No. 4 Maryland
74% of brackets had Stanford in the Elite 8, 57.3% in the Final Four, 32.7% in the Championship Game and 12.6% to win it all
Stanford has played six games this postseason and have outscored their opponents by 137 points
No. 10 Creighton's secret not so secret bench weapon keeps their run going
Creighton was picked to lose in the first round in 59.9% of brackets and picked to advance to the Elite 8 in just 3% of brackets
Through three games, Creighton's super sub Morgan Maly has 49 points and 25 rebounds
On Sunday, Creighton will have a chance to earn a third win in eight days over a team that finished top-10 in the final AP Poll
They played 1 game this regular season against a team that was Top-10 at the time of tip ... a 76-56 loss vs. UConn on Feb. 2
Iowa state of mind... 77.9% of brackets had either Iowa or Iowa State in the Elite 8. #BracketBustingBlueJays Can they keep it rolling? 81.3% of brackets had Iowa, Iowa State or South Carolina emerging from this region.
Monday recap
No. 1 NC State cruises past No. 9 Kansas State
The Wolfpack are 5-0 this postseason, winning their games by an average of 23.6 points per game
Plenty of brackets have them meeting Stanford in the Final 4 (24.5%), but of those brackets, only 34.5% decided to write "NC State" into the title game
No. 3 Michigan starts slow before dominating No. 11 Villanova
66.9% of brackets had the Wolverines in the Sweet 16
2.6% of brackets nailed the upcoming Michigan/South Dakota Sweet 16 matchup
65.1% of brackets that had this matchup occurring advanced Michigan
No. 5 Notre Dame (1.5-point underdog) dominates No. 4 Oklahoma
Notre Dame has out-scored opponents 67-29 in first quarters in this tournament
40.9% of brackets had the Fighting Irish in the Sweet 16
35.8% of brackets nailed the upcoming NC State/Notre Dame Sweet 16 matchup
78.9% of brackets that had this matchup occurring advanced NC State
No. 6 Ohio State downs No. 3 LSU
25.6% of brackets had the Buckeyes in the Sweet 16
But only 8.9% of brackets put OSU in the Elite 8
Sunday recap
No. 1 South Carolina continues to cruise, but the beauty of this time of year is that it only takes one poor performance to render all of that useless. We have 75.7% of brackets advancing them into the Elite 8, so despite the strong start to this weekend, a loss in their next game would be very impactful with Iowa out of the way.
3.9% of brackets have Arizona in the Final Four
3.4% of brackets have North Carolina in the Final Four
No. 2 Baylor fell to No. 10 South Dakota, now leaving us without a 2-seed on the left-hand side of the bracket
That's great news for the 28.8% of brackets that have both 1-seeds advancing from that portion (Louisville and South Carolina)
This loss opens up a path for Michigan to make a run to the Elite 8 (22.6% of brackets have that happening)
South Dakota is making its first trip to the Sweet 16 and were picked to advance this far in only 6.4% of brackets
A tough week for the Baylor and Iowa programs
There were four programs that saw both their men's and women's teams among the 13 most popular champion picks this season -- Baylor and Iowa were two of them, and together they have zero representation in the Sweet 16
Arizona and Tennessee were the other two schools on this list. The Tennessee men have already lost (the women play No. 12 Belmont on Monday)
Arizona's men's team survived (barely in the win over TCU) and the women go Monday against No. 5 North Carolina
A closer look at Maryland
No. 4 Maryland has yet to lose a quarter in this tournament and has scored 191 points through two games (136 points allowed)
14 teams were picked to win the title more often than the Terrapins in ESPN brackets
Maryland was picked as a Final Four team in just 4.3% of brackets
Iowa knocked off
No. 2 Iowa was upset by No. 10 Creighton in the second round. The Bluejays scored the final six points to earn the 64-62 victory in a game they led throughout despite being a 12.5-point underdog!
This knocked out a Final Four team for both of the brackets that were perfect through Round 1.
Iowa was the 6th most popular team picked to make the finals and the 6th most popular team to win the tournament
Creighton was picked as a Sweet 16 team in just 7.4% of brackets, an Elite 8 team in 3% of brackets, and a Final Four team in 1% of brackets
This clears the path for No. 3 Iowa State to make a run. The Cyclones were picked to the Elite 8 in 19.9% of brackets and to win the region in 4.4% of brackets
What if?
If Georgia upsets Iowa State tonight, that would give us a 6-seed/10-seed meeting in the Sweet 16 for a trip to the Elite 8. Just 2.2% of brackets had Creighton and Georgia meeting up in that game, so if you're part of that, you've got a serious leverage spot tonight!
Saturday recaps
Perfection
A pair of brackets nailed all 32 games in the first round. Wow. Why even play the rest of the games? These two have clearly cracked the code... and they think the tournament will play out the EXACT SAME WAY! Iowa, Louisville, Maryland and NC State in the Final Four. NC State over Louisville in the championship game.
No. 6 Ohio State prevails against Missouri State
It certainly didn't come easy... down 9 points after the first quarter and a one possession game while playing defense with under two minutes to go. But they got there and it's a good thing they did, as no 6-seed was picked to reach the Elite Eight (8.9%) or Final Four (2.5%) more than the Buckeyes.
No. 11 Princeton downs Kentucky
Tough week to be a Wildcat. Princeton was picked in just 25.2% of brackets (Kentucky was picked to advance to the Sweet 16 in a higher percentage of brackets: 28.8%)
No. 11 Villanova upends BYU
33% of brackets projected this upset, but the optimism doesn't extend much past the one win. Only 9.6% of brackets advanced 'Nova into the Sweet 16
No. 12 Belmont outlasts Oregon in OT
18,9% of brackets had this 12-5 upset nailed
3.7% of brackets had Oregon in the Final Four, making them the most popular 3-seed in that regard
The Belmont win gave us three double-digit seeds advancing in that region (along with Villanova and South Dakota)... 3.9% of brackets saw that coming
No. 1 NC State and No. 2 UConn both roll to easy victories
A sweat free day is a good day. These two teams were picked to square off in the Elite 8 in the majority of brackets (51.4%).
Friday recap
With 16 games in the books, 1,305 perfect brackets remain.
How did we get there?
No. 1 South Carolina led 44-4 at halftime and scored more points in the first quarter than they allowed Howard to score for the entire game
No. 2 seeds Baylor and Iowa both won by 40. It's early but the 49.7% of brackets that have South Carolina and Iowa playing one another for a trip to the Final Four have to like what they saw Friday
No. 3 Iowa State survived a scare, a great thing for the 63.2% of brackets that had them winning not only Friday, but also on Sunday to reach the Sweet 16
No. 12 FGCU beat No. 5 Virginia Tech: 24.1% of brackets got it right. This was the most impactful result of the day, as 30.1% of brackets had Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 (2.5% bought all the way in and had them in the Final Four)
No. 10 South Dakota beat No. 7 Ole Miss: 30.9% of brackets got it right
No. 10 Creighton beat No. 7 Colorado: 40.1% of brackets got it right
None of those percentages are overwhelming, but only 5.8% of brackets were able to nail all three of those seeding upsets
Friday noon EST update, the ball is tipped
Most popular champions:
South Carolina: 30.1% (They've been the clear cut choice with every update. All other one-seeds combined are picked to win a total 25.4% of the time.)
Stanford: 12.5%
UConn: 11.4%
NC State: 7.1%
Louisville: 5.8%
Do you want to make a unique bracket? You can try pining the tale on the off-the-wall upset, or you can simply fade South Carolina or Stanford (or both!) winning their region. At the moment, 61.3% of brackets have South Carolina getting to the Final Four and 57.2% have Stanford. Furthermore, a whopping 41.9% of brackets have BOTH getting there! Have a unique winner in either of their regions and you've separated yourself from the field. Have a unique winner in BOTH of those regions and you probably don't need to pick much chaos early on, understanding that if you're right and the favorites falter at all, you're sitting pretty.
Most popular National Championship matchups:
South Carolina vs Stanford: 20.3%
South Carolina vs UConn: 11.1%
Louisville vs Stanford: 3.6%
Louisville vs NC State: 2.6%
Iowa vs Stanford: 2.5%
Iowa and Kentucky were popular picks on the men's side and lost before the tournament was 12 hours old. So, should we expect the women's teams to pick them up? If so, you'd have a very unique bracket: 0.5% of brackets have Kentucky and Iowa squaring off in the Final Four
Kentucky is a six-seed, which means the committee labeled them as the 21st-24th best team in the field. Our users, however, are much more confident, as they are the 15th most common pick to cut down the nets (ahead of a three-seed in Iowa State)
Most popular upset picks by seed to make the Sweet 16
10-seed: Arkansas, 8.3%
11-seed: Princeton, 9.6% - They are the most popular double digit seed picked to reach both the Sweet 16 and the Final Four (1.2%)
12-seed: FGCU, 9.0%
13-seed: Buffalo, 7.2%
14-seed: Jackson State. 5.1%
15-seed: Illinois State, 4.3%
16-seed:Montana State, 3.4%
First round upsets
The 5-12 and 6-11 games have been sweet spots for upsets. Here are the four most picked 11 and 12 seeds to advance through the first round
Villanova: 32.9%
Princeton: 25.1%
FGCU: 24.0%
Dayton: 22.2%
Friday, 10:30 a.m. EST update
Champion
1. South Carolina: 30.2% -- They've been the clear cut choice with every update. All other 1-seeds combined are picked to win a total 25.4% of the time
2. Stanford: 12.5%
3. UConn: 11.5%
4. NC State: 7.1%
5. Louisville: 5.8%
Final Four
Do you want to make a unique bracket? You can try an off-the-wall upset, or you can simply fade South Carolina or Stanford (or both!) winning their region. At the moment, 61.5% of brackets have South Carolina getting to the Final 4 and 57.6% have Stanford. Furthermore, a whopping 42.1% of brackets have both getting there!
Have a different winner in either of their regions and you've separated yourself from the field. Have a different winner in both of those regions and you probably don't need to pick much chaos early on, understanding that if you're right and the favorites falter at all, you're sitting pretty.
Upset special
Kentucky is a 6-seed, which means the committee labeled them as the 21st-24th best team in the field. ESPN users, however, are much more confident, as they are the 14th most common pick to cut down the nets (ahead of a 3-seed in Iowa State).
How sweet it is
The most popular upset picks by seed to make the Sweet 16:
10-seed: Arkansas, 8.2%
11-seed: Villanova, 9.5% -- They are the most popular double digit seed picked to reach both the Sweet 16 and the Final Four (1.2%)
12-seed: FGCU, 8.8%
13-seed: Buffalo, 7.1%
14-seed: Jackson State. 5.1%
15-seed: Illinois State, 4.2%
16-seed:Montana State, 3.7%
Wednesday 8 p.m. EST update
Here's are the most popular championship picks by the public
South Carolina: 30.3%
Stanford: 11.8%
UConn: 11.8%
NC State: 6.8%
Louisville: 5.7%
Final Four picks from outside the No. 1 seeds:
UConn: 37.8%
Baylor: 26.1%
Iowa: 16.3% (The Iowa men are at 12.2% to reach the Final Four ... a little friendly competition among strong teams at the same school?)
Texas: 14.7%
Michigan: 9.7%
Popular first-round upsets:
9-seed Kansas State: 49.6%
9-seed Gonzaga: 49.2%
9-seed Georgia Tech: 43%
10-seed Arkansas: 42.5%
10-seed Florida: 39.8%
Double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16:
11-seed Villanova: 9.2%
11-seed Princeton: 8.5%
12-seed FGCU: 8.2%
10-seed Arkansas: 7.8%
10-seed Creighton: 6.8%
Tuesday, 9 p.m. EST update
After two days of bracket-building, here's how your picks are looking.
Most popular champion picks:
South Carolina (1-seed): 30.9%
UConn (2-seed): 12% - All other two-seeds combined: 11.1%
Stanford (1-seed): 11.2% - Just over 54% of all brackets currently have one of the three teams above to win it all ... so if you want to create a different bracket, starting with any other winner is one avenue
NC State (1-seed): 6.5%
Most common upset by double-digit seeds
Most common 10-seed: Arkansas (41.5%) - The most popular of all double digit seeds ·
Most common 11-seed: Villanova (31.5%) - Picked to make the Sweet 16 in 8.8% of brackets, the highest rate among double digit seeds ·
Most common 12-seed: FGCU (20.9%)
Most common 13-seed: Buffalo (13.8%)
Most common 14-seed: Charlotte (10.7%)
Most common 15-seed: Illinois State (8.3%)
Most common 16-seed: Montana State (6.5%)
Odds and ends
The top 16 teams in terms of champion pick percentage feature 15 of the top 16 seeds.
The top four-seed generating the least confidence: Oklahoma (picked to win just 0.6% of brackets).
The non-top four seed generating title buzz: Kentucky (six-seed, picked to win it all in 0.9% of brackets, making them the 13th most common selection).
Every eight-seed is being picked to advance in the majority of brackets.
Three of the four 10-seeds have been in advanced in over 38% of brackets.
Despite being a four-seed, Oklahoma is NOT being advanced to the Sweet 16 in the majority of brackets
Monday, 10 p.m. EST update:
After 24 hours, 55.3% of brackets have a 1-seed winning it all South Carolina has established themselves as the clear front-runner, as they've been picked to win it all in 33.4% of brackets
The most popular non-1-seeds to cut down the nets:
No. 2-seed UConn: 12.6%
No. 2-seed Iowa: 5.5%
No. 2-seed Baylor: 3.3%
No. 2-seed Texas: 2.1%
No. 3-seed Michigan: 1.7%
Overall, 8-9 games are always tough, but at the moment, all 4 8-seeds hold the edge in pick percentage.
South Carolina (63.5%) and Stanford (60.6%) have distanced themselves from the field in terms of pick percentage to make the Final Four. No other team is picked to win their region even 44% of the time
Upset special?
Here are the most popular picks at each of the double digit seed lines to win their first round game:
No. 16-seed: Montana State (6.2%)
No. 15-seed: Hawai'i (7.7%)
No. 14-seed: Jackson State (9.8%)
No. 13-seed: Buffalo (12.6%)
No. 12-seed: Belmont (15.2%)
No. 11-seed: Villanova (30.8%)
No. 10-seed: Arkansas (40.5%)
Whose program is most likely to win BOTH the men's and women's tournaments?
Here are the top 5 in terms of cumulative title pick percentage (among schools represented in both tournaments
Gonzaga
Arizona
UConn
Kansas
Baylor
Monday, 3 p.m. EDT update:
Popular Tournament Champions
South Carolina: 40.4% Picked in a higher percentage of brackets than the next 10 most popular winners COMBINED
UConn: 10.6%
Stanford: 8.4%
Iowa: 4.7%
Popular First Round Upsets (double digit seeds)
10-seed Florida: 33.4%
10-seed Arkansas: 32.7%
10-seed Creighton: 31.3%
11-seed Villanova: 25.3%
Is the 8-9 game no longer a coin toss?
Every eight-seed is currently leading the charge, all being clicked through on over 54% of brackets
Miami: 64.8%
Kansas: 62.2%
Nebraska: 56.5%
Washington State: 54.7%
2021 Recap
Last season, 17.7% of brackets correctly picked Stanford to win it all. They were the second most popular pick, trailing only UConn's 30%. When all was said and done last season, 63.4% of brackets had a one-seed cutting down the nets.
While the final result was "chalky", it almost wasn't. Arizona lost the title game in a result that would have swung many a pool. The Wildcats were picked to win it all in less than 1% of brackets (0.96% to be exact, making them the 12th most popular pick).
Picking a unique champion is one way to gain on the field, but not the only way. Texas made a surprise run to the Elite Eight as a 6-seed last season, something 91.6% of brackets did NOT see coming. Pick and choose your spots, but one right call and you're gaining on the majority of the field!
In the first round last season, there were four double digit seeds (all 10-seeds) picked to advance in over 30% of brackets. Those four teams all lost in the first round.