ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the New York Mets.
New York Mets
Reason for optimism: For the first time since 2006, the Mets are much better than the division-rival Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
Reason for pessimism: When you have to go back to 1990 to add the New York Yankees to the above statement, you're dealing with a franchise not known for good decision-making.
Because of the huge variations in park effects -- especially in the National League, wherein the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants toil in heavy coast air while the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks frolic in launching pads -- you can often get a better read on the comparative rank of a team's offense by only looking at away run production. (Gambling digression: This was a huge factor in the 2012 World Series, in which the Detroit Tigers were big favorites over the Giants. Ignored by all was the fact that San Francisco led the NL in road run scoring -- by 46 runs -- and were second in the majors. That World Series might have been the largest underdog mispricing since the Americans in the Revolutionary War.)
Guess which team was second in the NL in road run production last season? It was the Mets, who play their home games in a stadium that crushes offensive production (though the dimensions will be slightly more hitter-friendly this season).
Although the raw counting stats don't show it, you can see the overall strength of the Mets lineup by consulting the 2014 position-by-position wins above replacement (WAR) heat map prepared by Baseball Prospectus and refer to the Washington Nationals capsule. Just like the Nationals, the Mets' weakest point of production last year, incredibly David Wright at third base, was only mildly below league average. (There are some terrific third basemen in the NL.)
Unlike the Nationals, this across-the-team balance does not equate to a juggernaut-in-waiting because the Mets don't have MVP-caliber upside at a couple of positions like Washington does, but the Mets have assembled a formidable lineup that can complement a team that receives excellent pitching to the playoffs.
The only notable change to the 2015 edition is Michael Cuddyer taking over the left-field duties from the woeful combination of Eric Young and Chris Young. While their departures do not create holes, at first glance, it's hard to get excited by the addition of the 36-year-old Cuddyer. He's coming of a couple of excellent years with Colorado, where he hit over .330 in consecutive seasons with considerable power. But just as the Mets are better than their counting numbers suggest due to park effects, how can anyone get fooled anymore by career-year production in Coors Field?
For instance, Cuddyer's .331/.385/.543 batting line the past two seasons reduces to .303/.352/.466 when you just look at his road hitting. Even though those are excellent numbers, It still pays to be very skeptical of players with career years in their 30s, and $21 million over two years isn't exactly a free call, but the Cuddyer signing might not be as foolish as it initially looked this winter. Of course, the real strength of the Mets is the pitching staff, although Zack Wheeler's season-ending elbow injury reduced a lot of optimism. In truth, the hit to the Mets' outlook isn't quite as bad as it appears.
With the careful approach to Matt Harvey's return, the Mets project to have something resembling a six-man rotation in terms of number of starts. They can handle spreading Wheeler's 28 starts among the remaining five starters, but the rotation loses the advantage of depth. Still, this is not a death blow to wild-card contention.
The bullpen might actually be a bigger concern because it's ripe for regression. Simply stated, Mets relievers walk too many batters (9.9 percent, third worst of all bullpens in 2014) to justify the 3.14 ERA they posted last season. The return of Bobby Parnell, who lost 2014 to elbow surgery, might help. Currently at 82.5 games, up one from the opening market of 81.5, it feels like there is a lot less value than just one more game. At the 81.5 price, a bet that the Mets would finish above .500 appeared to have some real value. They're still probably your best high-return pick for playoff futures since there's certainly a scenario in which they could compete for the second wild-card spot. But with the loss of Wheeler and a rising win total, the value on an over bet doesn't appear to be there anymore.
2015 projection: 84-78, (second, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass