"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 9 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. Take a look and see who the fellas like in the big Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions game.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 4-1. Season: 29-14-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-2. Season: 18-16-1)
The plays
Ohio State Buckeyes (-15.5, 62) at Penn State Nittany Lions
The Bear: Much has been made about the ATS success James Franklin has had in the series with Ohio State and the thought that Penn State got right last week vs. Minnesota. But that was a one-dimensional Minnesota offense. There was zero threat of a passing attack with freshman Athan Kaliakmanis making his first start. Now the Nittany Lions have to deal with all of the challenges Ohio State brings. If the Buckeyes don't turn it over, they should win handily.
Pick: Ohio State -15.5
East Carolina at BYU (-3, 62)
Stanford Steve: This one is all about the situation. BYU is fresh off a cross-country flight back from an embarrassing 41-14 loss at Liberty. ECU is coming off what might be its biggest win under head coach Mike Houston, throttling a favored UCF team by 21 points. BYU has gone through a gauntlet of opponents recently, playing the likes of Liberty, Arkansas, Notre Dame and Oregon. A night game in Provo is just what Kalani Sitake needs now. We'll lay the points with the home team.
Pick: BYU -3 (BYU 27, East Carolina 20)
Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-4, 46.5)
The Bear: I had South Carolina last week and was very happy to get the win, but there was good fortune, as the Gamecocks had just 286 yards, scored on a KO return and another TD on a 19-yard drive. A lot went their way. That ranking number is now to the left of their name, and Missouri has just enough on offense and has been good against the run. This appears like an obvious spot to back the 'dog in what could be a letdown spot for South Carolina.
Pick: Missouri +4
Toledo (-6.5, 55) at Eastern Michigan
Stanford Steve: I'm sorry. I can't wait another week for MACtion. I need it now. The Rockets are fresh off a high-scoring loss at Buffalo and look a little beaten up. Now they play Chris Creighton and his boys on the "granite" turf in ole Ipsilanti. Eastern has some nice wins under its belt and has been tested already this season. It doesn't play a pretty brand of ball, but we'll take the home underdog plus the points here.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5 (Eastern Michigan 24, Toledo 23)
Ole Miss (-2, 55) at Texas A&M
The Bear: The Aggies are a dumpster fire right now, but I like them here. I don't think Ole Miss will have much success running against the A&M front, and despite all of the issues A&M has had this season, its defense has played well. Obviously the Aggies' QB situation is a question, but I think the defense and Devon Achane should be enough to pull the small upset.
Pick: Texas A&M +2
Pittsburgh at No. 21 North Carolina (-3, 64.5)
Stanford Steve: If you haven't watched UNC QB Drake Maye, you need to. He's been simply sensational: ranking second in the country in TD passes with 24, and leading an offense that is sixth in the FBS in yards per play and eighth in FBS in points per game. Pitt, on the other hand, could not have looked worse, coming off a bye at Louisville last week. The Panthers lost 24-10 while committing four turnovers. So, shouldn't the ranked team at home be giving more than three points? Smells fishy. We'll take the boys from the Burgh plus the points and hold our butts against Maye and the Tar Heels' offense.
Pick: Pitt +3 (North Carolina 31, Pitt 30)
Oklahoma (-1, 56.0) at Iowa State
The Bear: Oklahoma's defense has been a liability all season, but the Cyclones haven't scored more than 24 points against any Power 5 team this year. With Dillon Gabriel back, the entire OU squad, not just the offense seemed to play with a little more urgency vs Kansas. Despite everything, 9-3 is still on the table for OU and while that will likely have them on the outside looking in of the Big 12 title game, the possibility of a 10-win season if things break right would be a massive turnaround for them. Iowa State has given the Sooners problems in the past, but I just don't think their offense can keep up with OU and Gabriel here.
Pick: Oklahoma (-1)
Middle Tennessee at UTEP (-2.5, 41)
The Bear: Since blowing out Miami in a stunning upset, the Blue Raiders have been blown out by UTSA, UAB and Western Kentucky. Now they face a team back in their weight class one coming off an upset win of its own against FAU. I don't expect either offense to go crazy here, so I'll grab the points - and maybe even buy this thing to three late just for a little bit of insurance on a key number.
Pick: Middle Tennessee (+2.5)
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-2.5, 55.5)
The Bear: Another hidden situational plan with the Chanticleers coming in off a home loss as a double-digit favorite in a game where the defense was a no-show, allowing 528 yards, 6 20+ yard TD and and two 50+ yard TD. That probably won't happen again. On the flip side, Marshall just handed James Madison a loss as a 12.5-point favorite in a game the Dukes committed five TO and the Herd has just 326 yards. I like Grayson McCall and the Chants to get back to their winning ways this week.
Pick: Coastal Carolina (+2.5)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.
$100 returns $113.97
Last Week: -100
Season: -228
Houston Cougars -900
Florida State Seminoles -2500
Ohio State Buckeyes -630
Georgia Bulldogs -2100
Oregon Ducks -950
USC Trojans -650
Michigan Wolverines -3000
San Jose State Spartans -2800
UCLA Bruins -850
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-4, -2.65 units
Season: 7-24, -12.5 units
Washington State Cougars +225
Missouri Tigers +165
West Virginia Mountaineers +240
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +120
Pittsburgh Panthers +130
Bear bytes
Entering this week, 36 games have involved a top-five team. Thirty-one have featured a spread of 14 points or more. Three of the four top-five teams in action this week have a spread of 14 or more, meaning of the 40 games involving top-five teams, 34 have seen a spread of 14 or more.
Unranked UCF is favored over No. 20 Cincinnati. Dating back to last year, there have been 13 unranked teams favored over ranked teams; those 13 teams have gone 3-10 ATS.
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5, 62) at No. 13 Penn State
Under James Franklin, Penn State is 2-14 vs. top-10 teams. Since upsetting Wisconsin to win the 2016 Big Ten championship, the Nittany Lions are 0-10 vs. top-10 teams, but five of the losses have come by four points or fewer.
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5, 56.0)
Since 2016, Mike Gundy has excelled in these types of games. Oklahoma State is 14-3 in games where the spread is within +3.5/-3.5. Even more impressive is that since 2010, Gundy's teams are 13-2 away from home in situations like this.
Oklahoma (-1, 56.0) at Iowa State
Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State has been involved in 20 games in which the spread was within -3.5/+3.5. Iowa State is 5-15 (.250) in those 20 games. In that span -- since 2016 -- only one coach has a worse winning percentage in "close spread" games (min. 10 games): Kliff Kingsbury (1-9, .100).
Miami (-2.0, 48.0) at Virginia
The Canes have been favored five times this season over FBS opponents. They have failed to cover any of the five and lost outright to North Carolina as a four-point favorite, to Duke as a 10-point favorite and to Middle Tennessee as a 25.5-point favorite.
Dating back to 2019, Tulsa has been an underdog 16 times; it's covered 13 and won four outright. The only three the Golden Hurricane didn't cover was a 2020 bowl loss to Miss State (one-point 'dog, lost by two), a 2019 loss to Tulane (10-point 'dog, lost by 12) and a push vs. Cincinnati in September (10-point 'dog, lost by 10).
Florida at No. 1 Georgia (-22.5, 56.5)
Favorites have won and covered six of the past seven meetings. This is the third-biggest spread in the rivalry behind Florida -34 in 1996 and Florida -23.5 in 1995 (the Gators won and covered both).
No. 8 Oregon (-17, 58) at California
Justin Wilcox-coached teams are 25-10 ATS as an underdog with 13 outright wins (2-1 ATS this year).