Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most entertaining games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Last week was another difficult week in Eliminator Challenge, led by the Pittsburgh Steelers pulling off the largest upset so far this season, upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 9.5-point underdogs. Teams favored by at least four points were just 3-3 last week and are now 29-17-1 this season. That is tracking to be the worst winning percentage by four-point favorites in a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
According to FPI, three teams have an 81% chance to win this week: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots. However, only one of those teams is being picked by less than 10% of entrants so far this week, and they are my top choice this week.
Top pick
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
The Patriots appear to be hitting their stride after back-to-back blowout wins over the Lions and Browns. The betting market has taken notice, as New England is in its largest favorite role this season and the line has already moved through the key number of seven. However, as of Tuesday evening, only 4% of entrants have picked New England. They don't have many other usable weeks after this, with only one more week where FPI makes them even a 60% favorite to win. The Bears rank in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and it's hard to see Justin Fields and the Bears going on the road and beating Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
Line: Patriots -7.5
FPI chance to win: 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 4% selected
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Other options
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans
The Raiders are in a very similar situation to the Patriots. Both are 81% favorites to win according to FPI. Both face two of the worst teams in the NFL at home. Both are in their largest favorite roles all season. Both have their second-easiest remaining games coming in home games against the Colts. However, the Raiders have been a much more popular pick so far this week than Houston, dropping them to my second choice. This is the Raiders' largest home favorite role since moving to Las Vegas, so this isn't a role they are overly familiar with, but they still should be able to get by the Texans at home.
Line: Raiders -7
FPI chance to win: 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 28% selected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers let down 15% of Eliminator entries last week with their loss in Pittsburgh. However, Tom Brady's teams have bounced back from upset losses in his career. Brady is 12-2 outright and 13-1 against the spread following a loss as at least a touchdown favorite. Tampa Bay is the biggest betting favorite this week and the largest road favorite all season. Double-digit road favorites went just 9-6 outright last season, tied for the most such losses in a season in the Super Bowl era. However, the Panthers have lost and failed to cover 17 of their last 20 games, and with coach Matt Rhule fired Oct. 10, it seems like the Panthers have little to play for.
Line: Buccaneers -11
FPI chance to win: 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 19% selected
Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are coming off a big upset win, while the Dolphins have lost three straight. However, the Dolphins did not have their starting quarterback play full games in any of those losses. This week, it appears Tua Tagovailoa will return with Teddy Bridgewater backing up. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in Total QBR this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers have quarterback issues of their own with Kenny Pickett's status unclear. Even though the Dolphins lost last week, they outgained the Vikings by 224 yards. The Dolphins still have a home game against the Texans in Week 12 (75% chance to win) and a road game in Chicago (70%), so they have other usable weeks, but FPI considers this their largest remaining favorite role this season.
Line: Dolphins -7
FPI chance to win: 76%
Eliminator Challenge: 1% selected