Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most entertaining games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Last week was another tough one for Eliminator Challenge entrants. My top pick (the Jaguars) lost at home to the Texans. Jacksonville ended up as the most popular selection in Circa Sportsbook's large tournament. Meanwhile, the most popular pick on ESPN.com was the Green Bay Packers at 24 percent. The Packers also lost in London against the Giants. Overall, 36 percent of remaining ESPN players saw their picks lose last week.
This week seems like a straightforward week on paper with three teams favored by at least a touchdown. Those three teams are my top picks this week.
Top pick
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
The Rams are the only double-digit betting favorites this week. While ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) isn't as high on the Rams as the betting market (FPI favors LA by 6.8 points), this is still the only game all season FPI gives them at least a 70% chance to win. The Panthers are in an epic string of futility, losing and failing to cover in 16 of their last 19 games. Baker Mayfield had the worst Total QBR in the NFL, but PJ Walker might even be worse. While it's a small sample, Walker's career 15.1 Total QBR ranks second-worst among any quarterback in the last decade with at least 100 pass attempts, only ahead of Nathan Peterman. The Rams have not lived up to expectations either, but they check every box this week as a big favorite without heavy ownership or a lot of future schedule value.
Line: Rams -10.5
FPI chance to win: 72%
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
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Other options
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field, Green Bay
The Packers have been a staple of this column recently with an easy early schedule. This may be the best remaining time to use them. They are the largest FPI favorites this week, ahead of the Rams and Buccaneers, and this is their largest FPI favorite role in any game remaining this season. Green Bay is a perfect 10-0 outright and against the spread under Matt LaFleur following a loss, while the Jets are in a potential letdown spot following their first division victory in three seasons. The Packers defense has been shakier than expected, but they still rank third in pressure rate. Zach Wilson rates last in QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt since entering the NFL. While Green Bay does have to fly back from London, both teams in that role won last week as similar favorites, and I expect the Packers to do the same.
Line: Packers -7
FPI chance to win: 83%
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
The Buccaneers are the second-biggest betting and FPI favorites this week. They fall third in the pecking order for me because they have several more weeks in the near future where they are a strong pick. Tampa Bay ranks among the top four in FPI chance to win in each of the next four weeks. However, they are a fine pick this week as well. The Steelers have slipped to 31st in FPI, only ahead of the Bears. Kenny Pickett has been slightly more effective than Mitch Trubisky, but he still has 0 touchdown passes and four interceptions in two games. Meanwhile, Tom Brady has won 12 straight starts against rookie quarterbacks and should make it 13 on Sunday.
Line: Buccaneers -8
FPI chance to win: 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 11% selected
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
If you really want to go off the board, FPI loves the Browns this week. It gives Cleveland a 76% chance to win, the third-highest mark of any team this week. This is also the most FPI favors them in a game this season, even including after Deshaun Watson's return. Plus, they are currently being selected by less than 1 percent of Eliminator Challenge entrants this week. That combination of factors makes the Browns an intriguing pick this week.
Line: Browns -3
FPI chance to win: 76%
Eliminator Challenge: 0% selected