Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most entertaining games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Compared to the past few weeks, Week 5 looks much easier on paper. Six teams are favored by at least a touchdown after a total of nine were in the first four weeks combined. That includes the Buffalo Bills laying 14 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is the largest spread so far this season.
However, each of the three biggest favorites have a lot more usable weeks in the future. The Bills still have two games left against the Jets among other options, while the Packers and Buccaneers are by far the two biggest favorites next week. As a result, my top choice for larger groups is Jacksonville, which combines a high chance to win and low future value. For smaller groups that may need to play all 18 weeks, the Bills are the top choice.
Top pick
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
When the season began, I did not expect to be picking Jacksonville in Week 5, but here we are. If you want to fade the chalk (and save the Bills, Packers and Buccaneers for later), Jacksonville is the best option on the board. Houston is the only winless team in the NFL and is the only team to rank in the bottom 10 in EPA (expected points added) per play on both offense and defense. The only other week where FPI gives the Jaguars at least a 65% chance to win is in Week 7 against the Giants, and there are a lot of other great options that week on paper. While the Texans have beaten the Jaguars eight straight times, an improved Trevor Lawrence seems poised to snap that streak. Plus, the Jaguars don't appear to be an overly popular choice.
Line: Jaguars -7
FPI chance to win: 72%
Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected
Other options
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
Buffalo is the biggest betting favorite in any game so far this season, and according to FPI, this is the Bills' largest favorite role in any game this season. Pittsburgh has not been this big of an underdog since 1969 as it turns to rookie Kenny Pickett. A road game against one of the best defenses in the NFL is a very difficult spot for Pickett to make his first start. Whether or not to use Buffalo largely depends on the size of your group. If you are in a small group, surviving to Week 6 is most important, so the Bills would be more viable. They have a number of more usable weeks left, but their next one doesn't come until Week 9. In larger groups where you need to map out your entire season, they fall down the pecking order slightly.
Line: Bills -14
FPI chance to win: 86%
Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
Based on the FPI rankings, the Bears are starting to open up a gap between themselves and the second-worst team in the NFL. Anytime the Bears are on the road, it is reasonable to use their opponent, as we saw last week with the Giants. FPI also sees some extra value on the Vikings, favoring them by 10 points. This is also the highest projected line for any Minnesota game the rest of the season. While there is concern with them (and the New Orleans Saints) coming back from London, the Vikings are a nice under-the-radar pick to avoid the chalk. We've only seen five teams come back from London without a bye week, going 2-3 straight up and ATS, so it's too early to draw conclusions on how much that affects teams.
Line: Vikings -7
FPI chance to win: 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
If you didn't use the Packers already, this is probably the best remaining spot to click them. The Giants may be 3-1, but the Packers are a massive step up in competition compared to their first few opponents. FPI thinks this line should be closer to 13.5 with the Giants' quarterback injuries. The key with this matchup is to look at next week. FPI sees a big gap between Tampa Bay, Green Bay and every other team in Week 6. If you have already used Tampa Bay, then save the Packers for next week when they host the Jets, and vice versa if you choose to use the Buccaneers against the Falcons.
Line: Packers -7.5
FPI chance to win: 87%
Eliminator Challenge: 30% selected