Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
While it sounds simple, getting a perfect season is always more difficult than it looks. The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also keeping quality options open for future weeks.
Week 1 featured as much carnage as we have seen in a long time. 45% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge entrants were knocked out in Week 1 with the Broncos (16%), Titans (11%), 49ers (6%) and Bengals (4%) all falling. That doesn't even include the Colts-Texans tie that resulted in advancement in ESPN but elimination in many other contests. It was the first time since 2005 that three six-point underdogs lost outright in Week 1.
If you were fortunate enough to survive Week 1, Week 2 is a much more traditional week with the largest favorites largely playing at home, compared to last week when the top plays were almost all on the road. Some of the biggest Week 1 disappointments are the biggest Week 2 favorites. Out of the six teams favored by at least a touchdown in Week 2, five lost outright in Week 1 (Rams, Broncos, Packers, 49ers, Bengals). Since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS.
This week, all four of my top picks are coming off Week 1 losses, including my top play, the Denver Broncos.
Top pick
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-10, 46)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m ET, Empower Field at Mile High
While the Broncos knocked out 16% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge entries last week, they are my top pick this week at home. Denver is in its largest favorite role all season according to FPI, and despite the Broncos' Week 1 loss, there were plenty of positive signs. They outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards and averaged 1.6 more yards per play, but a few poorly timed turnovers caused them to lose by one on the road. While Denver is on a short week, the Texans are coming off a full overtime game, so the rest difference is negligible. There isn't a single week where FPI rates the Broncos as one of the top three favorites, and they only have one more game with at least a 65% chance to win (Week 7 vs. Jets).
FPI chance to win: 78%
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
Other picks
Los Angeles Rams (-10, 47) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 4:05 p.m ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
The Rams (-600) are the biggest money-line favorites this week based on the betting lines. However, they are by far the chalkiest pick. Around 30% of entries are using the Rams, significantly more than the other three double-digit favorites. However, given future schedules and confidence to win, I still prefer the Rams over all the other massive favorites besides Denver. Atlanta was blown out in all three games as a double-digit underdog last season and Sean McVay has had extra time to prepare coming off the opening Thursday night game. Over the past 10 seasons (since 2013), teams that play the opening Thursday game are 15-3 outright and 12-6 ATS in Week 2.
FPI chance to win: 82%
Eliminator Challenge: 30%
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10, 42.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m ET, Lambeau Field, Green Bay
The Packers are the biggest favorites of any team this week, according to FPI, and are in their largest favorite role all season. Plus, they are only being picked by 6% of entrants. That combination alone makes them worthy of a selection. However, the Packers have home games remaining against the Giants (Week 5) and Jets (Week 6), and they are currently FPI's largest favorites in Weeks 6, 13 and 18. That makes the Packers a much better play in a smaller group. In groups with thousands of people where you expect to make picks all 18 weeks, the Packers become a much less appealing play.
FPI chance to win: 88%
Eliminator Challenge: 6% selected
San Francisco 49ers (-10, 42.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m ET, Lumen Field, Seattle
The 49ers burned me as my top pick last week, but I'm going back to the well. It's probably now or never with the 49ers, as this is the only remaining game all season where they have at least a 65% chance to win according to FPI. The Seahawks are coming off an emotional Monday Night Football win, and now they have a short-week game against a 49ers team coming off a disappointing loss in the rain against the Bears. Still, the 49ers held the Bears to a league-low 3.6 yards per play, and that includes a 51-yard touchdown pass on a broken play. The Seahawks managed only 253 yards against the Broncos despite a very good game from Geno Smith. The 49ers should be able to limit the Seahawks' offense and avoid an 0-2 start.
FPI chance to win: 73%
Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected