It's hard to believe, but we are just 16 days from Selection Sunday. Last weekend, the NCAA Selection Committee revealed their top 16 seeds for the tournament. This is the deepest year in recent memory in terms of teams that can cut down the nets in New Orleans. So with that in mind, we thought we'd rip through who you should bet on, who you should fade and a few teams that should get a sprinkle.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
1. Gonzaga (1-seed West) +425 This team can undoubtedly win it all. Offensively, it is gifted. Andrew Nembhard is an outstanding PG, Drew Timme has the best footwork of any big in the country, Chet Holmgren protects the rim and so many players make plays. However, I think we've seen the model to knock off this version of the Zags. Teams with physical defense, which can get up into you, disrupt their flow and score themselves in transition are a problem for the Zags. They lack guards that can truly take skilled, physical guys off the dribble. There are a handful of teams that can execute this formula, however with the shortest odds and maybe my fifth or sixth selection to win it, all it's not worth the play.
Verdict: Fade
2. Auburn (1-seed Midwest) +1000 I, more than most, believe in Auburn to win the national title. Its ability to play at pace, be comfortable in chaos and have arguably the best frontcourt in the nation in Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler present unique challenges. The Tigers' struggles with shooting on the road in SEC play have been a bit concerning, but I think they're going to learn from their late game losses at Arkansas and Florida. With a 10-1 price, I'm buying.
Verdict: Buy
3. Arizona (1-seed South) +850 I've been beating this drum for a while and got the Cats last month at 15-1. I think they're the best team in the country. As I said in previous articles and shows, this price was gonna keep coming down. They play at a tremendous tempo, with multiple guys that can score in myriad ways, have a lottery pick in Bennedict Mathurin and are elite defensively with their skills, length and versatility. Buy now, price is going to keep coming down.
Verdict: Buy
4. Kansas (1-seed East) +1400 The Jayhawks are worthy of a No. 1 seed given their résumé and chances of winning the Big 12, the toughest conference in the country. But I don't think they can win the national championship. They're an elite team offensively but too inconsistent defensively. The NCAA tournament is won in a half-court game, but the Jayhawks aren't going to be able to outscore teams and are not capable of shutting them down enough to win it all.
Verdict: Fade
5. Baylor (2-seed South) +1800 The Bears are 15-0 when healthy, but they haven't been healthy since that 15th win and won't be the rest of the year. The loss of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who is out the rest of the year is huge. LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler have missed time with nagging injuries. Unfortunately, the defending champs have just been unlucky. If they were fully healthy, this number would be lower and I'd still buy them.
Verdict: Fade
6. Kentucky (2-seed East) +800 The Wildcats are the most improved team in the country. It was evident this week when they were missing their two best guards in Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington and still beat Alabama (the same Alabama that beat Gonzaga and Houston) by double digits and edged LSU. This UK team doesn't have a bunch of one-and-done players, but they are absolutely capable of winning it all. They were in the 14-1 one range 3 weeks ago, now at 8-1. Get on it.
Verdict: Buy
7. Purdue (2-seed Midwest) +1000 This team is unique. It has two bigs in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams who can dominate the interior in very different manners, a top-5 pick in Jaden Ivey and several shooters. The concern, though, is the Boilermakers aren't consistent defensively. They are outside the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Recent national title winners have been at least in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The wrong matchup could spell doom for them, but being how special they are offensively could overcome the weaknesses. At this price, it's worth a little sprinkle.
Verdict: Sprinkle
8. Duke (2-seed West) +1400 Since I'm an employee of the Walt Disney Co., I'd appreciate a storybook ending for Mike Krzyzewski but it's highly unlikely. It's not for a lack of talent, though. I believe Duke may be the most talented team in the country but no guy in the rotation has played in a NCAA tournament game. They are coming out of the ACC, which has been down. Rarely, has Duke been tested and when it has, it has failed those tests. But with all that said, at this price and if they wind up in Gonzaga's region (which it beat convincingly in November and can employ the previous mentioned formula against the Zags), the Blue Devils are worth a little cash.
Verdict: Sprinkle
9. Villanova (3-seed East) +2500 Phenomenal program, phenomenal culture, one of the best PGs in the country in Collin Gillespie and a highly skilled group. However, that's not enough. Villanova lacks depth and skills to truly knock off some of the country's best.
Verdict: Fade
10. Texas Tech (3-seed Midwest) +2500 Pick a cliché about defense and it applies to Texas Tech. An absolute elite defensive team that makes every trip down the court a battle. With injuries sidelining TJ Shannon and Kevin McCullar, other Red Raiders have delivered with more efficient scoring roles. Bryson Williams should be a First Team All-Big 12 player, Adonis Arms can ball and is on the All-Name Team and Clarence Nadolny frequently makes key plays. Coupled with a healthy Shannon and McCullar, the Red Raiders can score more with that elite defense. 25-1... let's roll.
Verdict: Buy
11. Tennessee (3-seed South) +5000 The Vols, who have a high-level defense, are a much improved team offensively. Kennedy Chandler and Zakai Zeigler have had impactful freshman seasons in terms of evolving. However, freshman guards in the NCAA tournament, regardless of talent, are not something I can back. Recent history has taught us that veterans, especially guards, are critical to cutting down the nets.
Verdict: Fade
Kennedy Chandler takes off for big-time flush
12. Illinois (3-seed West) +3000 If healthy all season, I think we'd view Illinois differently. It missed its massive center Kofi Cockburn and veteran guard Trent Frazier for periods and also lost lead guard Andre Curbelo for two months with a head injury. Illinois is fully healthy now, with a veteran core, great guards and one of the most dominant post players in the country. At this price, it is worth a flyer.
Verdict: Sprinkle
13. Wisconsin (4-seed East) +7000 Wisconsin has had one of the most surprising seasons of any team. Sophomore Johnny Davis is a top-three candidate for national player of the year. He's had multiple 30-point games in wins over big-time teams like Purdue and Houston. Despite how good Davis and his supporting cast are, this is still a young team at its core. The Badgers aren't your typical slow-paced Wisconsin team but I don't see them winning six straight through March and April.
Verdict: Fade
14. UCLA (4-seed Midwest) +2200 Injuries and a nearly monthlong COVID-19 pause has derailed last year's tournament darlings. The Bruins still have all the guys from last year's Final Four run and added some key pieces. But the injuries and pause have set them back. Tyger Campbell has been out of the lineup recently, and I just don't believe this Bruins team has ever hit a peak this season and won't have time to get there fully healthy.
Verdict: Fade
UCLA's David Singleton somehow drains this enormously long 3
15. Providence (4-seed South) +8000 The Friars are finally getting the respect they deserve based on their 23-3 record, the wins they earned and being one of the best-coached teams in the nation by Ed Cooley. They're the eighth-most experienced team in the country and that shows in their late-game execution and playmaking. They are 11-1 in games decided by five points or less. I think that stat, as impressive as it is, will lead to their demise. They have good guards and a spectacular performer inside in Nate Watson but I don't think they can walk that tight rope of tight games and cut down the nets.
Verdict: Fade
16. Texas (4 Seed West) +5000 Chris Beard brought in transfers who have started to gel in the past month. Defensively, the Longhorns have been elite, top 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but offensively they can struggle mightily at times. You have to win in a half-court game in the tournament and I don't think Texas is able to do that at the highest level.
Verdict: Fade