The second half of the NBA season starts Thursday night, and plenty of teams will be looking to capture the illustrious Larry O'Brien Trophy at the end of the postseason.
The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers are both set to add new stars to the mix after a blockbuster trade that shook up the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks remain a force, with the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics all vying for playoff positioning.
The Phoenix Suns sit atop the Western Conference entering the second half but might have to finish the regular season without star point guard Chris Paul. Paul's thumb injury opens up the conference for other teams like the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets.
The All-Star break gave our betting expert Doug Kezirian and senior writer André Snellings a chance to reset and make some new bets on title futures and MVP odds. Here are some best bets and futures picks for the NBA's second half.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
André Snellings' best second-half title bets
Milwaukee Bucks
To win the NBA championship (+600)
The Bucks are my pick to win the championship again this season, though I'm not sure there is enough value at +600. The East is tough, with teams like the 76ers, Nets, Heat and Celtics all geared up to pose stiff challenges. But the Bucks are championship-tested, have the most dominant individual player in the sport and two other All Star-caliber players and a team of strong role players. Milwaukee has already proven they can come together and excel at the highest levels. While the 76ers and Nets have major personnel questions, the Bucks at their best are better than the Heat and Celtics. The West has a similarly deep field, but is also full of teams with injury questions or questions about whether they can beat the Bucks in a 7-game series.
Milwaukee is safest, and in my opinion the best pick to come through the scrum and hoist the Larry O' Brien trophy again in June. While I'd prefer closer to the +1000 that they were for most of last season, another way to increase the juice could be to parlay the Bucks to win the NBA Finals with a Western conference team to make the Finals.
Brooklyn Nets
To win Atlantic Division (+1400)
There are four teams within five games of each other atop the Atlantic, led by the 76ers, with the Celtics two games back, the Raptors 2.5 games back and the Nets 4.5 games behind. Any of the four have a legitimate chance to win the division, but the Nets have the longest odds. Brooklyn was also the most negatively impacted by injury and have the largest influx of talent returning after the break. Prior to losing Kevin Durant to injury, the Nets had a multi-game lead in the division without Kyrie Irving playing at all. Durant is expected back soon as well as new acquisition Ben Simmons. Irving is extremely confident in Brooklyn's prospects coming out of the break and with news of New York City Mayor Eric Adams planning to phase out the city's vaccination mandate, there's a chance Irving will be playing in all of the Nets' games before the season ends. Andre Drummond, Seth Curry and Goran Dragic are all starting caliber players who shouldn't be overlooked.
The Nets won 22 of the last 30 games that Durant played in for a 73 percent win clip, well above the 60.3 percent pace that the 76ers are currently on. If the Nets can return to that winning percentage down the stretch, they have a much better than 14-1 chance to come back and win the division.
Golden State Warriors
To win Pacific Division (+800)
The Pacific is a two-team race, with the Suns currently 6.5 games ahead of the Warriors with only 23-24 games left. However, these two teams have been evenly matched this season when near full strength. The difference has been when the Warriors have dealt with serious injury issues. On Christmas Day, the Warriors beat the Suns by nine points in Phoenix to take the Pacific lead with a 27-6 record. But in the roughly 25 games since, the Warriors have been without Draymond Green (and gone 13-11 in the last 24 games Green has missed) while also re-acclimating Klay Thompson into the lineup after his long injury layoff.
Now, in the second half of the season, the Suns will be without Chris Paul, who ranks in the top-10 in the NBA in Real Plus Minus (RPM) as one of the highest impact players in the league. If the Warriors are able to return to their 82% win rate after the break, they could put pressure on the Suns down the stretch with a better than 8-1 shot to overtake them.
Chicago Bulls or Cleveland Cavaliers
Bulls to win Central Division (+190)
Cavs to win Central Division (+300)
The Bucks have the best chance to win this season's title but both the Bulls and Cavaliers have a strong chance to defeat them in the division. The Bulls have a 2.5 game division lead and have shown no sign of slowing down. They are also expecting some injured players back soon after long layoffs, including point guard and floor general Lonzo Ball. The Cavaliers have also maintained their pace all season, are a game ahead of the Bucks in the loss column with a slightly higher win percentage and recently got an infusion of talent at the Trade Deadline with the addition of Caris LeVert. The Bucks are geared more towards postseason success than regular season accolades, they have the confidence of a champion and are likely more focused on reaching the postseason healthy than sprinting to the finish for home court advantage. The Bulls at almost 2-to-1 and the Cavs at 3-to-1 are both better values to win the division, in my opinion, than the Bucks at 1-to-1.
Denver Nuggets
To win Western Conference (+1400)
The Western Conference has strong teams at the top, but all of them have question marks. The Suns and Warriors both have injury concerns with some of their best players and the Grizzlies have never been at the top of the West before. The Jazz have, but the last time Utah faced the Nuggets in the postseason, Denver was victorious. The key is whether Jamal Murray is able to return and get back up to speed before the postseason. The last time Murray was healthy and playing next to Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets went to the Conference Finals and lost to a Lakers team featuring a healthy Anthony Davis. Jokic is peaking right now, turning in a second consecutive MVP-caliber season while Davis is injured on a Lakers team that has struggled all season. If the Nuggets are full go in the postseason, they have a team that can challenge anyone else in the West, with better than 14-1 odds to run the table.
Doug Kezirian's MVP bet
What excites me as an NBA fan disappoints me as a bettor. Currently we have three legitimate contenders priced at +375 or shorter, with Joel Embiid the clear favorite at +140. I would also include the next four players on the betting board as having a somewhat realistic chance. So this is shaping up to be a fantastic race down the stretch.
In terms of finding value in a one-way betting market, I can only justify wagering on Nikola Jokic at +300 or better. In the straw poll conducted by Tim Bontemps, Jokic and Embiid are the two frontrunners. The market does not really reflect how close that polling was so I think there's a good opportunity with the reigning MVP.
The Denver Nuggets own the NBA's easiest remaining schedule, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, while Philly's ranks eighth-hardest. The standings just might prove to be the determining factor. Denver is currently a six-seed, while Philly is currently in a three-way tie for the three-seed and only 2.5 games away from the play-in tournament.
Plus, Embiid is about to play alongside new teammate, James Harden. How will that impact Embiid's statistics or even the team's performance? Will there be an adjustment period?
Handicapping MVP betting includes handicapping voters. I do think Embiid will get deference because he has yet to win this award and deserves credit for leading the Sixers through the Ben Simmons hoopla. I also believe in voter fatigue, which figures to hurt Jokic and two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But ultimately, I think there's value on Jokic (+300), especially if Jamal Murray and/or Michael Porter Jr. return from injury to improve Denver's final seed.