Betting the 2021-22 NBA season has been a roller coaster to say the least. So far, competition around the league has been at a high level and there's been a number of upsets and huge surprises.
As oddsmakers do their best to keep up with a season that's been quite difficult to predict, bettors have been burned several times by an outing which saw their bets all but crushed by halftime.
What did we see and learn in the first half of the season that can be applied the rest of the way? Sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian, sports betting reporter David Purdum and senior writer Andre Snellings take a look back at the first half and take a glance at what's to come in the NBA season.
Jump ahead: NBA Betting Storylines | NBA Betting Moments | Bad Beats | Takeaways for second half
David Purdum's betting storylines from the first half of the season
• When the season tipped off in October, more money had been staked on the Lakers to win the NBA championship than had been bet on all the other teams combined. Fifty-one percent of the money bet on Caesars' title odds was on the Lakers, four times as much as was on the Nets, who began the season as the consensus favorites.
As the season progressed, the Warriors and Suns established themselves as the best teams in the NBA record-wise and bettors have bought in. Both teams rank in the top 3 in bets and money wagered.
Four months later, the Nets are in eighth in the Eastern Conference and the Lakers have a losing record and are around 2-1 underdogs to even make the playoffs. The Nets and Lakers have already clinched the under on their season-win totals of 55.5 and 51.5 respectively.
• The Cavaliers entered the season at 500-1 to win the NBA title and have exceeded all expectations. They needed only 45 games to clinch the over on their season-win total, the fewest games needed by any team since the 2013-14 Suns, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Cleveland was one of five teams with 500-1 championship odds, along with the Pistons, Rockets, Thunder and Magic. Those four teams have the four worst records in the league. The Cavs head into the break in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and are now 60-1 to win the title.
• Favorites went on an impressive run against the spread in mid-February, going 25-3-1 ATS over a four-day stretch spanning from Feb. 5-8. Since then, underdogs are 28-26-4 ATS, entering Thursday's games.
Favorites are (436-422-16 ATS) entering the All-Star break, according to ESPN Stats & Information. (Note: Nine games had closing lines of pick 'em).
Overs are (439-431-13) entering the break.
• Top 5 teams ATS
Memphis Grizzlies: 39-20-1
Oklahoma City Thunder: 35-19-4
Cleveland Cavaliers: 34-22-2
Chicago Bulls: 35-23-1
Toronto Raptors: 33-23-1
• Bottom 5 teams ATS
Washington Wizards: 22-34-2 (39.2%)
Brooklyn Nets: 23-35-1 (39.6%)
Houston Rockets: 25-34-1 (42.4%)
Milwaukee Bucks: 26-34-0 (43.3%)
Portland Trail Blazers: 25-33-1 (44.1%)
New York Knicks: 26-33-0 (44.1%)
• Top 3 over teams
Minnesota Timberwolves: 36-23-0 (61.0%)
Miami Heat: 35-23-1 (60.3%)
Houston Rockets: 33-23-1 (58.9%)
• Bottom 3 under teams
Dallas Mavericks: 20-37-2 (64.9%)
Cleveland Cavaliers: 22-35-1 (61.4%)
Philadelphia 76ers: 23-33-1 (58.9%)
• Most bets to win NBA title
1. Golden State Warriors
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Phoenix Suns
• Most money wagered to win NBA title
1. Golden State Warriors
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Notable bets
• $35,000 on the Lakers to win the championship at 3-1 odds for a potential net win of $105,000, placed Aug. 25, with Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada. The Lakers enter the All-Star break at 30-1.
• $30,000 on Celtics center Robert Williams III to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 60-1 odds for a potential payout of $1.8 million. (DraftKings)
• $20,000 on the Nets at +240 for a potential win of $48,000 (BetMGM). The Nets currently have +550 odds to win the NBA title.
• $19,000 on the 76ers to win the championship at 20-1 for a potential win of $380,000 (BetMGM). The 76ers enter the All-Star break at 7-1.
• $1,000 on the Bulls to win the championship at 150-1 for a potential win of $150,000 (BetMGM). The Bulls enter the All-Star break at 30-1.
Doug Kezirian's betting moments of the season
With 873 games already played, it's difficult to single out the moments that resonate most. That's particularly applicable for bettors because the games with action always leave a memorable impression. However, all gamblers can appreciate these significant scenarios and moments.
Oct. 27: Beal's embarrassing sequence had bettors stressed
Bradley Beal teased bettors with a wild sequence you almost have to see to believe. In the closing seconds of the first half, over 114.5 bettors needed one more point to cash. In a frenzied break, an unguarded Beal received a pass right underneath the basket. He blew the layup as one defender charged from behind. He still had time to grab the rebound and attempt another shot without a Celtic in sight, but that also missed. The horn then sounded before a successful third attempt.
Jan. 25: Clippers erase 35-point deficit against Wizards
The LA Clippers completed the second-largest comeback during the shot clock era (1996-97), rallying from 35 points to stun the Washington Wizards. But maybe we should have seen it coming. The Clippers are the first team ever to have three comebacks of at least 24 points in the same season. I sympathize with those who held Washington (-5) tickets. As we all know, everyone makes a run in the NBA but this was preposterous. Luke Kennard scored the game's final seven points in the final nine seconds. That entailed a 3-pointer, a five-second inbounding violation by Washington and then another Kennard 3-pointer while being fouled. The Clippers were as high as 50-1 on the money line, according to Caesars Sportsbook, and won the game 116-115.
Feb. 7: Strange ending to Suns-Bulls game baffles bettors
The Suns (-6.5) led by 15 points with 1:35 remaining but somehow did not cover, thanks to Chicago scoring the game's final 12 points. On its final few possessions, Phoenix did not use the entire shot clock, which gave Chicago more possessions and opportunities to close the gap. With 32 seconds remaining and 10 seconds left on the shot clock, Bismack Biyombo missed an 18-footer and that enabled Malcolm Hill to make a 3-pointer that got Chicago inside the number.
This was a rare underdog cover in a stretch of four days that saw favorites go 25-3-1 ATS and 27-2 SU.
Bad beats
Nov. 2, 2021: Rockets at Lakers
It was like nothing I had ever seen before. An unusual referee review decision late in the fourth quarter left the Lakers and me fuming. Officials awarded Los Angeles free throws after what they assumed was the Rockets' fifth foul of the quarter. Then with 2:31 left, the refs realized that the foul was only the Rockets' fourth and took the points off the board. Los Angeles lost a possession, which killed one of my parlays that night.
Lol. I've never heard of this in my life. The refs just took 2 points from the Lakers because they decided they made a mistake earlier in the game. This is potentially bananas
— Andre Snellings (@ProfessorDrz) November 3, 2021
Jan. 5: Kings at Lakers
Snellings: After Malik Monk missed a free throw with 24.8 seconds left to play, the game clock started running before De'Aaron Fox had even touched the rebound. When Fox pointed out the error, the referees decided that Fox did not have possession and called for a jump ball instead. Sacramento, trailing by five points, lost the tip and any chance of coming back in the game. The result was another ridiculous bad beat off an esoteric rule in a Lakers game, and for me personally, yet another parlay that I lost by one point due to weird circumstances.
OK, new one. Lakers up 5, 25 seconds left. Miss 2 FTs, De'Aaron Fox wants to maximize clock so doesn't touch rebound, but clock starts. Refs pow-wow, decide since no one touched it, should be jump ball. LeBron wins, Lakers get ball back. Win by 8. Had Kings +7. Sigh. #BadBeats
— Andre Snellings (@ProfessorDrz) January 5, 2022
Andre Snellings' takeaways for the second half
Will new-look Nets turn things around?
The Nets' title odds (+550) have taken a hit thanks to an 11-game losing streak. Without Kevin Durant, Brooklyn has dropped from first to eighth place in the Eastern Conference and have been overtaken by the Suns (+425) and Warriors (+480). The Nets' title hopes fall on the health of Durant, and there's still no timetable for his return from an MCL sprain suffered in January. Brooklyn acquired Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond from the 76ers in exchange for James Harden and Paul Millsap last week. But will the team be able to mesh with Durant still out and Kyrie Irving still a part-time player due to NYC's vaccine mandate?
The trade brought in two useful rotation players in Curry and Drummond who have already helped them start righting the ship. Both Durant and Simmons are expected back in the near future and the team should outperform their first-half performance moving forward no matter where they play. But Brooklyn could outperform daily lines on the road when it also has Irving in the fold.
Will Harden trade impact Sixers title odds, Embiid's production?
If the NBA season ended today, it's very likely Joel Embiid would be named MVP. Embiid (+150) is the current betting favorite after having 50-1 odds less than a month ago. Durant was the favorite until he suffered an MCL sprain, and his setback opened the door for several candidates, including Embiid, to make a push.
The 76ers added another high-usage player in Harden to the mix in their pursuit for an illustrious title. While Harden's presence will play a huge role in determining how far Philly goes this season, he will also have an impact on Embiid's MVP chances. Having a ball-dominant and prolific scorer like Harden could open things up for Embiid. Opponents must respect Harden's game on a nightly basis, eliminating double-teams aimed at the big man. Expect Embiid to put up even better numbers as the second half reaches the home stretch.
Watch out for the Bucks
Milwaukee has had a disappointing first half but it is still playing at a championship level when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are on the court together. The Bucks currently have the seventh-best record in NBA at 36-23 with a +3.5 scoring differential (eighth in the league). However, in games where all three of their stars are available, they are 24-6 (.800 win percentage would be good for second in NBA, first in East) with a +7.5 point scoring margin (also second in NBA, first in East).
On a game-to-game basis, this suggests Milwaukee may outperform expectations when Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Holiday are playing. The Bucks are currently +600 to win championship and +300 to win East and might have better value than the Nets (+550 to win title, +280 to win East) and the 76ers (+700 to win title, +330 to win East).
Timberwolves putting up points on the road
The Timberwolves play dramatically higher scoring games on the road than they do at home. On Tuesday against the Hornets, the two teams combined to score 246 points in Minnesota, but that was a fluke due to a high-scoring overtime session. Both the Timberwolves and Hornets had only scored 216 points combined at the end of regulation, which fits the pattern.
In their past 13 road games, the Timberwolves and their opponents have averaged 244.7 PPG, compared to their past 12 home games in which they've averaged a combined 218.3 PPG. That is a road/home swing of more than 26 PPG. Bettors could take advantage of this trend and take the under for totals when Minnesota plays at home and the over when it is on the road.