As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the night's games so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into conference championship weekend!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 22-15-16
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 53.5)
FPI Implied Line: Chiefs -6
I'll be honest, I thought FPI was going to be on the other side here. So much so that I wrote it up as soon as the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills, a whole screed about the vast difference between these two offenses. How Joe Burrow's high yardage total against the Titans masked a below-average performance once all his sacks were factored in. How the Chiefs were the most efficient offense in football despite a down year from Patrick Mahomes.
And then our numbers came in...
So let me put aside my notes on Joe Burrow's 28 QBR performance -- maybe even my own intuition -- and try to parse out why the model doesn't like the Chiefs quite as much as I'd have thought.
For starters, FPI has been just a little down on the Chiefs throughout their second-half resurgence. The model is not going to forget about everything it saw in the first half -- particularly defensively -- and that does dampen its overall rating for Kansas City. After all, the Chiefs did give up 36 points to the Bills on Sunday night. Moreover, you can't blame this on recency, either; even if we weighted the last few weeks more heavily, that would probably help Cincinnati, given Burrow's red-hot finish to the season.
When it's all said and done, FPI thinks the Chiefs are 5 points better than the Bengals on a neutral field. Add in a smaller home field advantage these days than there used to be and a rest disadvantage for Kansas City, and the model likes the Bengals. Just a little.
FPI's side: Bengals +7
Futures bet: 49ers to win the Super Bowl (+450)
FPI projection: 20% (+400)
FPI actually shows slight value for both NFC teams to win the Super Bowl, a change of pace with the model's two favorite teams -- the Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- eliminated in the divisional round. It is, to some degree, a fade of the Chiefs.
At this point it's fairly straightforward with only three games remaining. If FPI thinks the Chiefs are very slightly less likely than the market to win this week, and the 49ers are very slightly more likely than the market this week...then it's probably going to think the 49ers are slightly more likely to win the Super Bowl than the market. That is the case!
San Francisco is the eighth-best team in football according to FPI, but also the third-best among teams remaining. That gives them a chance! They will need to be two upsets, unless the Bengals pull out a stunner, but that's what you're getting +450 odds for.
I'll note that the Rams, at +210, are a tiny value over the +200 FPI would make them. A very small part of that equation is some semblance of home field in the Super Bowl. The way FPI calculates home field advantage is split up into two parts: being "home" and the travel differential between teams. If the Rams play in the Super Bowl it will still be considered a neutral field game, but they will travel 0 miles while their opponent will travel, well, more than that. It's a little thing working in their favor.