As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into the wild-card playoff round!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 21-13-15
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 50)
FPI implied line: Cowboys -4
Just a one-point difference here, but it's a big point. And what FPI is unaware of is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury, which would only nudge it more toward Dallas -- even though Garoppolo led the 49ers to victory on Sunday, if he's less than 100%, that can only be a bad thing going forward.
Offensively, these two teams have been close to equals in terms of EPA (expected points added) per play this season. The difference has been on defense: Through the early window Sunday, Dallas ranked fifth on that side of the ball in EPA per play, while San Francisco ranked 15th. Both teams have an elite pass-rushing threat (Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa), but the Cowboys' unit overall has been superior. Defense is less predictive than offense, but it does count for something. FPI thinks the difference between them is about a point.
Add in a little home-field edge and a little advantage on offense for Dallas, and FPI thinks this line should clear a field goal in the Cowboys' favor.
FPI's side: Cowboys -3
Futures
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl (+800)
FPI projection: 18% (+456)
Let's start here: FPI believes the Bucs are the best team in football. They aren't perfect, and they don't have the No. 1 seed. But going forward, it would take Tampa Bay over anyone on a neutral field. So +800 on that team? Yeah, FPI is all-in, with a huge gap between the model and the initial market after Sunday's action.
So where's the disagreement coming from? I think part of it is the wide receivers. No Chris Godwin, no Antonio Brown, and a probably-not-fully-healthy Mike Evans are factors that the market knows and FPI does not explicitly know. But at the same time: Brown played only seven games this season and Godwin has missed the past couple of contests.
They still have Evans. They still have Rob Gronkowski. And most important: They still have Brady! Entering Week 18, Brady ranked No. 1 among all quarterbacks in FPI's predictive QB rating -- ahead of Aaron Rodgers, whom Tampa Bay may well have to defeat to reach the Super Bowl.
The Bucs also secured an easy wild-card opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles (barely an above-average team in FPI's mind), so that makes their path just a bit smoother, too.
Tampa Bay is not at full strength. But for a non-bye team, they remain very dangerous.
Early wild-card playoff lines
(As of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Saturday
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 48.5), 4:30 p.m. ET
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 43.5), 8:15 p.m. ET
Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 49.5), 1 p.m. ET
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 50), Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-13, 47), 8:15 p.m. ET
Monday
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 50.5), 8:15 p.m. ET