As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 18!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 20-13-13
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans (-11, 43) at Houston Texans
FPI Implied Line: Titans -8
An odd thing about the AFC playoff picture is that the Titans are currently in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed and the bye -- despite being one of the worst playoff teams in terms of team quality. Don't blame the messenger here, Titans fans! I'm just telling you what FPI sees ... and FPI has no allegiances. It makes the Titans the 13th-best team in football going forward -- 1.5 points per game better than an average squad on a neutral field.
This is a long way of me saying: Don't let the record deceive you! The Titans may be 11-5 but they rank 19th in EPA per play on offense and 7th on defense (through the 1 p.m. games Sunday) and that makes them a playoff team but not a dominant team.
The Texans, of course, are not good at all. They're the third-worst squad in the league, FPI thinks. But with the Titans being just a bit above average and the game in Houston, 11 points is just too many points for Tennessee to lay, FPI believes.
FPI's side: Texans +11
Indianapolis Colts (-14.5, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI Implied Line: Colts -10
I want to stress exactly how little FPI thinks of the Jaguars. It sees them as the worst team in football, 9.4 points worse than the average team. And yet, it still thinks this line is too high. And, in fact, on the wrong side of 14.
The Colts are actually better than the Titans, FPI believes, with a top-5 EPA per play offense powered by its rushing attack. But FPI sees the whole team (with just a mediocre defense) as the 10th-best in the league, and to get to 14.5 on the road even over the worst team in the league, the model is going to have think you're better than that.
Is there a motivational mismatch here -- the Colts are almost certainly in the playoffs but an upset loss to the Jags would throw them into jeopardy -- that FPI isn't considering? Perhaps, though I'd question: Is there any reason to think the Jaguars or Colts motivation is different here than in recent weeks? The Jaguars season has been over forever and the Colts have been fighting for the postseason forever, and their past games is what FPI largely bases its ratings on.
FPI's side: Jaguars +14.5
Futures Bet
Buffalo Bills to Win Super Bowl +800
FPI projection: 15.3% (+554)
FPI has never, ever given up hope on the Bills. I probably could have put this bet under FPI values in this column almost every week given the model's crush on Buffalo. I'll admit I've questioned it too, thinking: What does FPI see in this team?
What it sees is a team that's been excellent on defense this season (2nd in EPA per play entering this week) and solid on offense (7th) and ... that's a pretty strong recipe? The schedule is a bit of a red flag (22nd-hardest entering Week 17) but then again, FPI knows that. I do think missing Tre'Davious White is one blind spot for FPI, but still, the model really likes the Bills.
In fact, it thinks they're the best team in the league going forward right now. Even if you're not quite on that level, they're surely the second-best team in the AFC after Kansas City, right? And given that, it's not that hard to imagine Buffalo going on a run and winning it all.
Early Week 18 lines
(as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Saturday/Sunday
New Orleans Saints (-4, 40) at Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-17, 45.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-3, 44)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
New England Patriots (-5.5, 40) at Miami Dolphins
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Washington Football Team (-6.5, 39) at New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 41) at Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 42.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-14.5, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-5, 42)
Tennessee Titans (-11, 43) at Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44.5) at Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, 44.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 48)