Intro by Doug Kezirian
Sportsbooks are coming off their worst NFL Sunday of the season and are now forcing the betting public essentially to pay a tax in perceived mismatches. Favorites of at least 3.5 points went 9-0 ATS last weekend and are 17-2 ATS over the past two weeks.
"Every favorite is covering. There's no danger in opening on the high side. If you take a couple bets on the 'dog when you open on Sunday, who cares?," John Murray told ESPN, alluding to the fact that the public will eventually lay the points, once game day arrives. Week 15 features seven teams favored by at least 9.5 points.
On top of this, COVID-19 is impacting all sports, and the NFL has seen some wild betting line moves. The Cleveland Browns began the week as 6.5-point favorites, but with numerous Browns players slated to miss Saturday, Cleveland eventually became a 3.5-point home underdog to the Las Vegas Raiders. However, that game has since been moved to Monday.
"This is about the craziest game we have booked all year," Murray said. "I can't really recall trying to book an NFL game like this one before. Sharp players are making bets earlier in the week, and more and more COVID news is coming out as the week goes on. The number is moving against those players."
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (14-23-2, 1-0 last week), Tyler Fulghum (23-24, 8-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (38-35-1, 2-3), Anita Marks (227-199, 25-15) and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (112-105, 12-12), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (57-47, 6-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (6-14, 1-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (27-24-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (47-37, 3-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 14.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's Week 15 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Panthers-Bills | Cardinals-Lions | Jets-Dolphins | Cowboys-Giants | Titans-Steelers | Texans-Jaguars | Bengals-Broncos | Falcons-49ers | Packers-Ravens | Saints-Buccaneers
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 46.5)
Bearman: Tom Brady has every notable QB record in the game, has won 100 Super Bowls and is considered the GOAT in the NFL, if not all of sports. However, the superhuman one has one weakness, a little kryptonite, so to speak. Since joining the Buccaneers, Brady hasn't been very good vs. the Saints. In fact, he has been awful. During their dream run to the Super Bowl last season, Brady and the Bucs went 0-2 in the regular season vs. New Orleans, losing the season opener in the Superdome and then the rematch at home by 35 points. TB12 and the Bucs got their revenge in the divisional round, but it was not easy, as they trailed throughout before taking their first lead with nine minutes left.
This season, the Bucs were rolling right along at 6-1 before a trip to the Big Easy on Halloween ended in a 36-27 loss. It wasn't a loss to Drew Brees or even Taysom Hill, this week's starter. The Saints started Jameis Winston, who was lost to a season-ending knee injury in the first quarter and replaced by Trevor Siemian. No worries, though, another Brady loss to the Saints. In the four games, the Saints' defense held the Bucs' high-flying offense to an average of 310 total yards. Brady had a 42.2 QBR in those four games, his worst vs. any opponent as Tampa's QB. He also has seven INTs, more than double any other opponent.
This Saints team isn't as good as last year's, but it still beat the Bucs with a third-string QB. Last week, it welcomed Alvin Kamara back and crushed the Jets to end a five-game losing streak. Are the Bucs the better team? Absolutely. And no one would be surprised if they win by two TDs. But Saints coach Sean Payton seems to have figured out a way to at least slow down this Bucs express, and with 11 points, I am going to continue to ride it. Oh, by the way, the GOAT had failed to cover in 11 straight prime-time games before blowing out the hapless Giants last month.
Pick: Saints +11
Kezirian: Hill is not a good quarterback, but I am backing the Saints' defense more than anything. New Orleans has presented plenty of problems for Brady since the QB joined Tampa Bay and has won all three regular-season meetings. The number just feels a bit high, although the Bucs' offense has been on a roll. Tampa Bay has won and covered four straight, so this is a reluctant play.
Pick: Saints +11
Marks: The Saints have had Brady's number, and mobile quarterbacks have found success against this Bucs' defense. The Saints present the perfect storm for this Bucs team. Hill should find success rushing the ball Sunday night (Josh Allen ran for over 100 yards last week against the Bucs' defense). Deonte Harris is still serving his suspension, so Tre'Quan Smith should continue to be a larger part of the Saints passing game.
Picks: Hill over 8.5 rushing attempts (-130), Hill over 43.5 rushing yards (-125), Kamara under 87.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Smith over 2.5 receptions (-160)
Walder: Based on his targets, Kamara has earned 4.9 expected receptions per game this season. In a vacuum, I don't think that's enough to grab the over. However, when you're getting plus-money in a game when we expect New Orleans to be passing more frequently than usual due to game script? I think the over is a buy.
Pick: Kamara over 4.5 receptions (+130)
Moody: Rob Gronkowski has averaged 8.8 targets and 78.5 receiving yards per game since his return in Week 11. The veteran tight end has a significant advantage over the Saints linebackers, so Brady will certainly take advantage. Since Antonio Brown is still out, Gronkowski should continue to receive a lot of targets. Over the last two games, Chris Godwin has caught 25 of 32 targets for 248 yards.
Picks: Gronkowski over 52.5 receiving yards (-115), Godwin over 73.5 receiving yards (-135)
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44)
Marks: The Bengals are the better team, and QB Joe Burrow showed last week that his pinkie injury is not significant. The Bengals lead the league in touchdowns scored from outside the red zone. Melvin Gordon III is dealing with a hand injury, so Javonte Williams will be in store for a heavy workload if Gordon can't go against a Bengals defense that struggles against running backs in the passing game.
Picks: Bengals +8.5 and over 38 in teaser (-120), Burrow over 21.5 completions (-110), Burrow over 6.5 rushing yards (-115), Ja'Marr Chase over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-9, 45.5)
Schatz: In the win column, only one win separates the 7-6 49ers from the 6-7 Falcons. The difference is much larger in advanced metrics. In Football Outsiders' DVOA, the 49ers are eighth in the league and the Falcons are dead last. The 49ers rank in the top eight on both offense and defense. They've suffered from a hard schedule and terrible luck on turnovers (recovering only seven of 23 fumbles on defense, for example). The Falcons, on the other hand, rank 29th or lower in all three phases of the game.
Atlanta defensive coordinator Dean Pees beat the Panthers last week with a smart blitz design, but the Falcons still rank last in adjusted sack rate this year and the 49ers have a much stronger offensive line, particularly with Trent Williams playing at an All-Pro level. Meanwhile, when Atlanta is on offense, the 49ers should be able to slow down tight end Kyle Pitts. They rank second in DVOA against tight ends this year. And while Matt Ryan is good at getting the ball out and avoiding sacks, Atlanta ranks 26th in pass block win rate, while the San Francisco pass rush win rate is ninth. Atlanta's losses this year have generally been big, and this one should be big enough to clear a high line.
Pick: 49ers -9
Marks: Jimmy Garoppolo is playing amazing football at the moment and this week faces a Falcons defense that is last in pressure rate. The 49ers are converting over 70% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. Elijah Mitchell might be inactive again because of a concussion, which should open the door for Deebo Samuel to be utilized in the rushing game against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns to opposing backfields.
Pick: 49ers -3 in 6-point teaser with Cowboys -4.5. Garoppolo over 21.5 completions (-115), Garoppolo over 245.5 passing yards (+100), Samuel anytime TD (+126)
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Fulghum: You have to feel sorry for the Ravens at this point. Injuries have absolutely ravaged this team since the preseason. Aaron Rodgers laying less than six points -- even on the road -- is quite enticing. The Packers are the best ATS team in the NFL this season (11-2), and now the Ravens have to attempt to thwart the league's reigning MVP with both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey on the sideline. Good luck.
Pick: Packers -5.5
Marks: The Ravens secondary is struggling. Allen Lazard's role has increased with Randall Cobb sidelined, and the Ravens have allowed a league-high 16 touchdowns from outside the red zone this season. Josiah Deguara also has a nice matchup. The Ravens have been destroyed by opposing tight ends this season, ranking 31st in allowed TD-rate.
Pick: Deguara over 16.5 receiving yards (-120)
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh: This is a "get right" spot for a Buffalo franchise that has had its guts ripped out in each of the past two weeks against the Patriots and Buccaneers, respectively. Now it's time to inflict some pain on a lesser opponent. Enter the Panthers, who are an absolute mess at the moment. Carolina turned a 3-0 start into a 2-8 stretch in which offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired. Whether you agree with the move doesn't change the fact that the club ranks 30th in yards per play and 24th in scoring.
Pick: Bills -10.5
Marks: Emmanuel Sanders is out, so expect Gabriel Davis to step up and fill his role. Davis had eight targets last week after Sanders exited the game. The Panthers play a lot of man coverage, which Davis will exploit. DJ Moore is dealing with a hamstring injury. He is getting the targets, but the results have been lackluster, and it will be much of the same against this Bills defense.
Picks: Davis over 41.5 receiving yards (-110), Moore under 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Arizona Cardinals (-13, 47.5) at Detroit Lions
Marks: Arizona leads the league in yards per pass attempt, while the Lions are last. Arizona is third in the league in red zone conversion rate, while the Lions are 31st. Running back James Conner is dealing with an ankle injury, and Chase Edmonds came off of injured reserve last week. If Conner cannot go, expect a heavy dose of Edmonds. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is done for the regular season, so Zach Ertz will get a bump in targets in a favorable matchup against a Lions defense that is allowing 8 yards per target to tight ends.
Pick: Cardinals -6.5 in 6-point teaser with Cowboys -4.5
Fulghum: Arizona should be able to bounce back after a tough loss to the Rams at home on Monday night. The Cardinals were their own worst enemy with a couple of bad turnovers against Aaron Donald and the Rams' defense. They still produced 447 yards of offense and converted eight of 15 third-down plays. Even without Hopkins for the rest of the regular season, coach Kliff Kingsbury has plenty of weapons left to attack an overmatched Detroit defense.
Pick: Cardinals over 3.5 team TDs (-120)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-10, 42)
Bearman: I wrote in this column four weeks ago that neither one of these offenses were good enough to combine to reach the mid-40s and, combined with the improved Dolphins' defense, that the under was the play. The teams punted up and down the field, and other than two notable Dolphins drives and two busted-coverage TDs, the total didn't amount to much. They hit 41, which is still below the current posted total. The offenses rank 30th and 31st in rushing, respectively, 22nd and 29th in total yards and 29th and 25th in scoring this season. Miami's resurgence has been on the defensive side, where the Dolphins have held their opponents to 13.5 points per game over the past seven weeks, third best behind the Patriots and Chiefs (who have allowed a Total QBR of 25.7, good for second best in the league). Dating back to 2018, the past seven Dolphins-Jets games, including five with Brian Flores on the Dolphins' sideline, have averaged a total of 32.3, with none topping 44 points. All this is before factoring in the COVID-19 impact, which, as of this writing, has three Dolphins running backs in the protocol. Miami has covered seven straight in the series and four straight overall, but 8.5 is a lot to lay for a team averaging 19.5 points per game and doesn't know who will play running back. The under is the safer play here.
Pick: Under 42
Schatz: Zach Wilson is second in the league in interception rate this year. The Dolphins lead the NFL with 72 passes defensed, and passes defensed totals are more predictive of interceptions than raw interception numbers. (Wilson is near the top of the league in passes defensed per game, too.) It's honestly hard to make the odds on this low enough to make the bet not worth it.
Pick: Wilson over 0.5 INTs
Kezirian: Laying double digits in the NFL is never a fun approach, but sometimes a situation calls for it. The Jets are worthy of such distinction, thanks to an atrocious defense. New York ranks dead last in several key defensive categories, including defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, while New England is getting all the attention in the division with a seven-game streak of wins and covers, Miami has quietly ripped off five straight. The Fins are a superior team and should be able to pound this Jets squad. Road teams and underdogs have thrived this season, but lately, with the playoffs in sight, the talented teams are surging. Favorites of at least 3.5 points last week went 9-0 against the spread and are 17-2 ATS over the past two weeks.
Pick: Dolphins -10
Fulghum: Anyway you want to slice it, the Jets have the most accommodating defense in the NFL. It can't stop the run. It can't stop the pass. It can't rush the passer. I could list all of the statistics to verify these statements, but I don't have the stamina to produce more words than "War and Peace." With Miami's running backs all seemingly in COVID-19 protocols and top-flight rookie WR Jaylen Waddle joining them there, the Dolphins' offense will be concentrated and distilled down to QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki. Those three should have monster stat lines in helping the Dolphins to another win.
Pick: Jets team total under 15.5 (-110)
Marks: Tagovailoa has a juicy matchup against a Jets defense that is one of the worst in the league. Waddle is out due to COVID-19 protocol and Parker is back in action. He played on over 70% of the snaps last week. The Jets defense is ranked 29th in WR yards per target.
Pick: Parker over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 45.5) at New York Giants
Schatz: There's no question that the Cowboys are in an offensive slump. Since their Week 7 bye, the Cowboys have -9.1% offensive DVOA, which ranks 21st in the NFL over that span. Nonetheless, the roots of this offense are still the same as the offense that ranked third in DVOA in the first two months of the season. And the defense has been playing lights out, currently ranking third in the league on the season. There's also reason to believe the Cowboys are better than they've shown. We know that red zone performance tends to be more variable than performance on the rest of the field, but it's also more important. Dallas is 24th in red zone DVOA on offense and 20th on defense. The Cowboys could easily be better than that for the rest of the year, given how well they've played on the other 80 yards of the field.
Contrast Dallas with the Giants, who rank 27th on offense and 18th on defense. That's without even considering that the Giants will be led by backup quarterback Mike Glennon or that, even worse, they're considering giving Jake Fromm serious snaps. Take Daniel Jones out of the equation and now the difference between these teams is enough to favor the Cowboys to cover even a big line like 10.5 points.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5
Marks: The Giants will be without Jones again this week, and there's a chance Jake Fromm will get some playing time. Saquon Barkley's ankle injury is still an issue, and the Giants are dealing with a number of COVID-19 issues. New York is 0-6 against teams above .500. This game has blowout potential written all over it.
Pick: Cowboys -4.5 and over 27.5 team total points in teaser (-115)
Walder: Even if Ezekiel Elliott were fully healthy and even if this wasn't a game Dallas was expected to win big, this line would look a shade high. Elliott has averaged 18.1 expected receiving yards per game (based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats). But, of course Elliott is banged up and the Cowboys are expected to be ahead here, so we'd expect fewer passes from them anyway.
Pick: Elliott under 23.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moody: Dak Prescott is averaging 282 passing yards per game this season and the Cowboys quarterback has a number of playmakers at his disposal (including Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb) who will allow him to beat a Giants defense that has allowed monster passing performances over the last five games.
In last week's game against Washington, Cooper appeared to be back to full strength. Among the Dallas receivers, he played on the second-most snaps and caught 5 of 7 targets for 51 yards. Cooper's route-running ability and agility should allow him to create separation from every Giants cornerback, with his best chances coming against James Bradberry and Keion Crossen.
Picks: Prescott over 277.5 passing yards (-115), Cooper over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fortenbaugh: Go deep inside the box score from Tennessee's 20-0 win over Jacksonville last Sunday and you'll see a Titans team that averaged a brutal 3.8 yards per play while surrendering four sacks. Translation: That game was more about how bad Jacksonville is than how good Tennessee is. No Derrick Henry, no A.J. Brown and offensive tackle Rodger Saffold is dealing with a shoulder issue. Additionally, the Steelers have had 10 days to rest and prepare for this game under a head coach in Mike Tomlin who is 66% lifetime against the spread in the underdog role.
Pick: Steelers +1.5
Schatz: This is an awfully low over/under line when the Steelers' defense is simply not very good this season. Pittsburgh's defense is 27th in DVOA. Tennessee's defense is better but is basically league average (ranking 14th). The Titans are particularly weak covering wide receivers and could struggle to cover all those Pittsburgh crossing routes. Four of the past six Steelers games have gone over this total, as have four of the past six Titans games. We estimate a 69% chance of this game going over.
Pick: Over 41.5
Kezirian: It's always a little scary to back QB Ben Roethlisberger at this stage of his career, but I think we see a solid version of him. He looked terrible last week against Minnesota, but that came just four days after a physical battle with rival Baltimore. Given how poorly the Steelers started that game, I expect Tomlin to have this team ready to rock from the opening kickoff. Meanwhile, the Titans have a decent offense, even without Henry.
Picks: Over 41.5; over 20.5 in first half
Bearman: This line befuddles me a little bit. I know Tennessee has been banged up, but we are still talking about one of the better teams in the AFC, a winner of seven of its past nine. Yes, the Titans lost back-to-back games heading into the bye and then came out and shut out the Jaguars (who hasn't?). But what have the Steelers shown us? They are 1-3-1 over their past five, with a tie against a previously winless team, and allowed the Vikings to run for what felt like a 1,000 yards on national TV. As they showed vs. Dalvin Cook & Co., they can't stop the run; they rank 30th in the NFL, allowing 139.5 rushing yards per game and are dead last in yards per play at 4.97. Tennessee might be missing Henry, but the Titans have still gone for over 100 yards rushing in each of their last three games, averaging 158.3. Pittsburgh is not going to be able to stop them any better than they did the Vikings. The Titans beat the Rams and Saints without Henry and should have no problem beating the Steelers. I also agree with Aaron on going over 41.5, as Tennessee road games are 5-1 to the over this season.
Pick: Titans -1.5
Kraemer: With all of the Titans' injuries, I don't see a huge difference between the Steelers and the Titans right now in terms of quality. Henry got injured, the Titans rank 29th in yards per play. Situationally, this sets up very well for the Steelers as well. Pittsburgh needs this game to keep its playoff hopes alive, while the Titans are virtual locks to win the AFC South. The Steelers are coming off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday, which was a terrible spot after a physical game against the Ravens. This looks like a good buy-low, sell-high spot. And as Joe noted above, Tomlin covers 66% of the time in his career as an underdog.
Pick: Steelers +1.5
Dolan: The Steelers have gone three full games without scoring a touchdown in the first half, putting up only two field goals. In Week 14, they allowed Minnesota to take a 22-point lead into the half. The Steelers playing at home does not make much of a difference to me with Big Ben's clock ticking. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 35 or more points in three of the past four games, with only one win in the past five games. The Steelers also seem to be a team that comes alive in the fourth quarter, so for that reason I am taking the Titans to have the lead at halftime.
Pick: Titans first-half money line (-122)
Marks: The Steelers have the 29th-ranked rushing defense in yards allowed to ball carriers. D'Onta Foreman has 32 carries over his past two games, averaging 5 yards per carry over that span, and has elevated to the top spot in the Titans' backfield.
Pick: Foreman over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)
Schatz: Is it possible the Texans' defense is ... not bad? It's not just possible, it's accurate. Yes, the Texans rank 30th in the league in points allowed, but the biggest problem is a horrible offense that puts the defense in bad field position. The Texans rank 29th in average starting field position on defense. But they get takeaways, ranking 10th in turnovers per drive, and they should have more, as they've recovered only five of 18 fumbles on defense. Put that together with yardage prevented, particularly on pass plays, and the Texans rank 13th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA ratings.
The Texans also might be better off on the offensive side of the ball with Davis Mills starting at quarterback instead of Tyrod Taylor. Taylor has the higher QBR this season, but the offense has been better with Mills at quarterback once we adjust for schedule. (Mills has primarily played against tougher defenses, while Taylor played an easier schedule of opponents.)
Jacksonville is probably better than Houston on offense, but, honestly, the Jaguars are a wreck all over the roster. The line has moved 1.5 points since Urban Meyer was fired, suggesting that the Jaguars will get a motivation bump from his departure. But is the difference between these two bad teams really more than a field goal?
Pick: Texans +4.5
Marks: The Jaguars had to deal with a lot of drama this week and go into this game with an interim coach after Urban Meyer was fired. Texans QB Mills has passed for 300 yards each of the past two weeks and should be able to keep that trend rolling. The Jags are averaging two scoring plays per game and have been outscored by 160 points in the first three quarters this season.
Picks: Texans +3 at the half, Texans +10.5 and under 45.5 points in teaser (-120), Mills over 1.5 touchdowns (+170), Mills over 219.5 passing yards (+100)