As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 15!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 18-10-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 45) at New York Giants
FPI Implied Line: Cowboys -6
This disagreement with the initial line is pretty extreme -- one of the absolute largest we've seen all year. Here's the wild part: That FPI implied line listed above? That's with Mike Glennon starting. And the model believes Glennon is solidly worse than Daniel Jones, who has not been ruled out for Week 15.
To some degree, I'm flummoxed as to what could cause such a large difference. I don't believe this is because FPI loves the Giants. It makes them the 26th-best team in the league as of the conclusion of the 4 p.m. window -- behind teams like the Raiders and Panthers. Perhaps it is due to a misalignment between the oddsmakers and FPI on the Cowboys. But is Dallas really inspiring a ton of confidence right now? Dak Prescott posted a 9.9 QBR today, and Dallas let a Taylor Heinicke-less Washington team back in the game against them. FPI makes them the eighth-best team going forward, and I'm not sure what the case is to move them up much beyond that.
Best guess here is a combination of a disagreement on the Cowboys and that oddsmakers consider Jones to Glennon a larger downgrade than FPI assumes. But regardless of the why, our model would look at this spread and love Big Blue at home.
FPI's side: Giants +10.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, 46.5)
FPI Implied Line: Buccaneers -8
Tampa Bay came out of the gates flying against Buffalo, but all four quarters count on the scoreboard, and in FPI. The Bucs still ended up needing OT to beat the Bills. Now make no mistake: FPI believes the Buccaneers are the best team in the league, they just aren't perfect.
But I think the real disagreement probably stems from the Saints. FPI just can't quit New Orleans. I thought maybe, maybe the model would break up the Saints after a five-game losing streak, but they take care of business one time against the Jets and it's here again, siding with them. Of course, FPI has significantly dropped New Orleans over time, but so has the market.
Here's the thing: New Orleans really isn't terrible. It ranks 21st and sixth in offensive and defensive EPA per play this season. Taysom Hill recorded a 54 QBR on Sunday against the Jets. The Saints are OK! And all FPI is saying here is Tampa Bay against an OK team shouldn't be laying 11.5.
FPI's side: New Orleans +11.5
Early Week 15 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 49.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Saturday
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 43.5)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 44)
Sunday
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 44.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-14, 47.5) at Detroit Lions
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5, 45)
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 45) at New York Giants
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 44)
Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 41)
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-1, 44)
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5, 45)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-7. 47.5)
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, 47.5)
Monday