ESPN betting analysts André Snellingspe, Eric Moody, Anita Marks and Joe Fortenbaugh offer a betting guide for Saturday's NBA showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Warriors are 21-4 and the 76ers are 14-12, and all eyes are on Stephen Curry as he needs to make 10 more 3-pointers to break Ray Allen's NBA career record (2,973).
Golden State Warriors (-1.5, 214) at Philadelphia 76ers
Splits
- Tickets: 93 pct Warriors, 7 pct 76ers
- Money: 93 pct Warriors, 7 pct 76ers
Snellings: The Warriors have been the best team in the league this season by every metric, including BPI, while the 76ers have been closer to the middle of the pack. A lot of that has been due to the 76ers dealing with major injury and illness absences thus far, most notably to center Joel Embiid. After starting the season 7-2 with Embiid, they lost seven of nine while Embiid was in the COVID protocol. Embiid has been back for a couple weeks now, but the 76ers are only 4-3 with an average scoring margin of -1.4 PPG during that stretch and are coming off a 22-point home loss to the Jazz. The Warriors, meanwhile, keep rolling at exactly the same dominant clip. They've won 10 of their past 12 games with an average margin of 12.6 PPG, after starting the season 11-2 with a margin of 14.2.
According to the BPI game predictor, the Warriors have a 68.8% chance to win with an estimated margin of 5.6 points.
Stephen Curry enters this game 10 3-pointers shy of Ray Allen's career 3-point record, and he is in play to break that mark on Saturday night. That would be the storybook ending, playing against a team featuring his brother Seth (and Seth's father-in-law, Doc Rivers). On the season, about 65.5% of Curry's field goal attempts come from long range. But, as he's approached the record, he's started shooting almost exclusively from distance. In Curry's past two games, a whopping 30 of his 35 field goal attempts have been from downtown (85.7% of his shots). Whether he gets the record or not, if he keeps shooting almost 86% of his shots behind the arc, I expect he'll hit at least seven treys in what projects to be a competitive game where he'll have to shoot often.
Picks: Warriors -1.5, Curry over 6.5 3-pointers made (-130)
Moody: Starting off the Warriors' five-game road trip is a 76ers team that recently had its three-game win streak snapped by the Jazz. Stephen Curry has been a key part of Golden State's success this season, and he's on the verge of breaking Ray Allen's career 3-pointer record. A talented supporting cast that includes Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole surrounds the veteran point guard.
In this season's games Stephen Curry has averaged 34 minutes with a usage rate of 31.8% and 27.5 points a game, which leads the team. In addition, Curry averages 5.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists on his way to shooting 43.9% from the floor and 41.5% from beyond the arc with 5.5 made 3-pointers (highest in the NBA). Nine more triples are needed for him to tie Ray Allen's record for 3-pointers made, and 10 more for him to pass Allen. For his career, Curry has hit 10 3-pointers in a game 22 times and nine triples 38 times. This record can be broken against the 76ers on national television.
Andrew Wiggins averages 18.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 30.5 minutes per game with a USG of 23% and a career-high field goal percentage of 48.7% this season. Against a 76ers team that has allowed 21 points and eight rebounds per game to small forwards this season, he's well-positioned to meet or exceed those averages.
In the NBA, Draymond Green is like a unicorn. With a USG of 16.3% and a career-best field goal percentage of 55.7%, he averages 8.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 block per game. Against the 76ers, Green's consistency is likely to continue.
The Warriors have the best defensive rating in the league. Additionally, the Warriors rank second in steals and defending three-pointers, holding teams to 32.2%. In addition, according to Cleaning The Glass, the Warriors allow the fewest shots at the rim. It's noteworthy considering the 76ers offense relies on Joel Embiid, who has averaged 27 points, 12.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game over the last five games. Embiid played through an abdominal injury to finish with 19 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 3-pointer, 3 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover in 30 minutes against the Jazz. The 76ers are 1-2 in games where he has less than 20 points. In theory, the Warriors are undersized, but they have enough defenders to slow down Embiid, especially considering that he will not be at 100% for the game.
For the season, Tobias Harris averages 19.1 points, 3.4 assists, 8.2 rebounds and 34.5 minutes per game. With Joel Embiid dealing with an abdominal injury, the 76ers may need to rely on him more in their game against the Warriors.
During the month of December, Seth Curry has averaged five assists per game. As part of the 76ers' offense this season, he has been a key player. Philadelphia gets an edge with Curry spacing the floor so the offense can flow and he's capable of knocking down shots from the perimeter. Furthermore, he is capable of putting the ball on the ground and creating for others.
Picks: Stephen Curry over 28.5 points, Stephen Curry over 4.5 rebounds, Stephen Curry over 6.5 3-pointers made, Stephen Curry breaks NBA all-time 3-pointer record, Andrew Wiggins over 17.5 points, Andrew Wiggins over 4.5 rebounds, Draymond Green over 7.5 rebounds, Draymond Green over 7.5 assists, Draymond Green over 0.5 blocks, Tobias Harris over 17.5 points, over 7.5 rebounds, Seth Curry over 2.5 assists
Marks: I'm going to bury the lead for a moment and write about the game first. I like the Warriors -1.5 tonight. Their defense is first in the NBA in points and field goal percentage, while ranking second in steals, and 3-point percentage. So at the rate Steph Curry will be trying to drain 3s, the 76ers won't be able to stay lock in step with Golden State.
Curry can break the career mark for 3s at three locations, but only two will be the most memorable. Tonight in Philadelphia against his brother Seth Curry, or at Madison Square Garden (once called the "Mecca of basketball"). Do the math, Curry is averaging 5.5 3-pointers a game, he has hit nine in four games this season, but not since Nov. 18 at Cleveland. He needs 10 to break the record tonight and the last time he reached double digit 3s was when he drilled 11 against the Thunder last May. Ten 3s is a tall task tonight but is possible.
NBA Insider, Marc Stein, is reporting if Curry does not break Ray Allen's record in the city of brotherly love (how appropriate), there is discussion the Warriors will sit Curry against the Pacers, and play him in New York on Dec. 14 to break the record there. Therefore, I'm doubling down on both tonight at +425, and on the 14th against the Knicks at +300. In essence, I'm betting that where Curry breaks the record is just as significant as breaking it, with all due respect to Indiana.
Picks: Warriors -1.5 (-110), Curry over 6.5 / 3's (-110), Draymond Green over 7.5 assists (-120)
Curry breaks record: vs 76ers (+425), vs Knicks (+300),
Fortenbaugh: Joel Embiid is averaging 10.9 rebounds per game this season and has recorded 12 or more rebounds in just seven of 16 contests. Speaking of those seven matchups in which Embiid cleaned up the glass, note that five of his seven opponents in those contests currently rank 22nd or worse in rebounding percentage this season, while the other two (Atlanta, Boston) rank sixth and 11th, respectively. This is an important angle to consider because the Warriors are one of the Association's elite rebounding squads, ranking second in rebounding percentage and first in defensive rebounding percentage.
Pick: Embiid under 11.5 rebounds
Nuggets:
• Curry: 10 3-pointers from breaking Ray Allen's NBA career record
• Embiid has scored fewer than 20 points in eight of his 16 games played this season (50%); he scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of his 51 games played last season (20%)
• Warriors: outscoring teams by an average of 6.5 PPG in the third quarter this season