As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is the FPI's implied line. The FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So, I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 16!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 18-11-12
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 42)
FPI implied line: Eagles -5.5
All of a sudden the FPI has become Joe Judge's fan? I'm not quite sure how that happened, but this is the second week in a row that the Giants have led off this page. (Buyer beware: It did not pan out last week in terms of either closing line value or result against the spread.) And again, the number I've put above is working under the assumption that Mike Glennon is the QB. (It would be similar with Jake Fromm.)
The Eagles are an average team. In fact, the FPI rated them as an exactly average team -- with a 0.0 rating -- entering Sunday. The Giants are (assuming a split between Daniel Jones and Glennon at QB) almost four points worse than that going forward. But let's just say we are overrating the Giants. It is possible! Even if we gave them a rating of negative-6 -- ahead of only the bottom tier of the Jaguars, Texans, Lions and Jets -- we still couldn't get to 10 points. Even if we generously gave two full points of home-field advantage, that would only make the Eagles eight points on average (and it might be lower when looking for median instead of mean).
So, even if the FPI is overrating the Giants and underrating the difference between Jones and his backups, I think directionally seeing this line as too high is very reasonable.
FPI's side: Giants +10
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 46.5)
FPI implied line: Chiefs -8
As has been the case almost all season, pricing the Chiefs comes down to how much you believe that the recent Chiefs are the real Chiefs?
The FPI almost never will. It's going to defer to the team's entire body of work, plus a prior, and not lean extra heavily on what happened last week. Or, say, the past few weeks. Because if we look at the past few games, the numbers make the Chiefs out to be roughly the best team in football? Since Week 12 through 1 p.m. Sunday, they rank third in both offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) per play.
But from the model's perspective, there is no use throwing away data in a sport where it's scarce. And if we factor in the entire course of the season, the Chiefs' offense looks very good (but not otherworldly), and the defense is merely average. Assuming what happened in the first half of the season holds predictive power -- and we have good reason to believe it does -- then Kansas City looks overpriced here.
FPI's side: Steelers +10.5
Futures bet
New England Patriots to win AFC (+475)
FPI Projection: 21.6% (+363)
The Patriots played poorly in their 27-17 loss to the Colts on Saturday, but it hardly knocks them out of Super Bowl contention -- and might even present a buying opportunity. New England is still the fifth-best team in football, the FPI believes, which is still plenty dangerous in the playoffs.
Yes, the Chiefs are both better and more likely to earn the No. 1 seed than New England. But we're not buying a favorite here. We're buying a challenger, and at the right price, that makes sense. Plus, the Patriots did gain a few percentage points in chance to earn that top seed on Sunday, thanks to the Titans losing. (New England is back up to 24% to earn that top seed and accompanying bye.)
The Patriots have what our model believes is the best defense in football. One tough showing against Jonathan Taylor isn't enough to change that.
Early Week 16 lines
(as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5) at Tennessee Titans
Saturday
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 45.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 48.5)
Sunday
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 44)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 43.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 49.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-1.5, 44)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5, 41.5)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, 42)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NA) at Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 47.5) at Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 46.5)
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 42.5)
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 47.5)
Monday
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (NA)