As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 9!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 8-4-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 9 games
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 47) at San Francisco 49ers
FPI Implied Line: Cardinals -3.5
Just a one point difference here but because that one point is crossing entirely over the key number of 3, this is a worthwhile difference.
Entering Sunday -- so after Arizona's upset loss to the Packers but before any of the rest of Week 8 -- the Cardinals' EPA numbers were still astounding. The Cardinals ranked fourth and second in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, looking at the entirety of the season. And yes, their blip came last week, but one trap FPI is not going to fall into is overweighting recency. It prefers to zoom out and view the full body of work. And Arizona has has been exceptional.
Similarly, FPI is not going to fall in love with Jimmy Garoppolo just because through the 1 p.m. window he was leading the week in QBR (with an 86 -- not bad!). Again, if we zoom out on the year, this is a total mismatch at signal-caller: Murray ranks fifth in QBR and Garoppolo ranks 23rd (albeit it in a smaller sample).
Arizona laying less than a field goal looks like a discount, and one that might be temporary.
FPI's side: Cardinals -2.5
Futures
Cincinnati Bengals to win AFC North (+375)
FPI Projection: 28% (+262)
Sunday was a bad day for the Bengals. Losing to the Jets is almost as low as it gets. Scratch that. Losing to the Jets while they're playing a backup quarterback is really as low as it gets.
But Sunday wasn't actually all bad for Cincinnati. The Steelers beating the Browns was a good result for them, both because the Browns were half a game up on Pittsburgh and because Cleveland is the better of the two teams (and therefore more of a threat going forward), though FPI now actually believes the margin between the Browns and Steelers is now very thin.
In fact, our Sunday night run put the Browns, Steelers and Bengals all next to one another in terms of team strength -- ranked at No. 17, 18 and 19, respectively. They're effectively equals, but only one of those teams has a slight lead in the standings: Cincinnati, which is up a half game on Pittsburgh and a full game on Cleveland. Note that the Bengals are also already 2-0 in the division and have a win over Baltimore.
There's no debate that the Ravens are significant favorites to win the division. But after them, the Bengals have the next-best chance and look a little undervalued at this price.
Early Week 9 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 46.5)
Sunday
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 46.5)
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-7, 46.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43)
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 47.5) at New York Giants
New England Patriots (3.5, 41.5) at Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills (-14, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 49.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 50) at Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 55.5)
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 46.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 54)
Monday
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 40)