Intro by Doug Kezirian
The betting public has managed three straight profitable NFL weekends and Sunday night's matchup between the Cowboys (-1.5, 55) and Vikings in will likely determine whether sportsbooks can stop the bleeding.
"No matter how the weekend goes, the Sunday night game is always a huge game for the house," Las Vegas bookmaking veteran and SuperBook vice president of oddsmaking Ed Salmons told ESPN. "Obviously in a game like this with Dallas involved, and even Minnesota is a high-profile team, this game will have tremendous action."
The public figures to back America's Team, given the Cowboys are the NFL's only team to cover every game this season. However, Salmons said professional bettors will "definitely" back Minnesota if the point spread reaches three points. But he's also reluctant to raise the line because star quarterback Dak Prescott strained his right calf.
"They're in a position now, if you look at the standings, if he's not 100% they have no reason to push him out there because they can afford a loss here," Salmons said. "It ain't going to kill him. But if they push him out there and he gets hurt, it could really hurt them."
If Prescott is unable to play, Salmons said he would favor Minnesota by "about 3.5 points."
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (10-13-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (6-16, 0-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (28-13-1, 5-1) and Anita Marks (124-90, 14-16), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (43-32, 10-10), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (28-34, 2-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (2-7, 1-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (15-11-1, 2-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (24-16, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: 49ers-Bears | Panthers-Falcons | Dolphins-Bills | Steelers-Browns | Eagles-Lions | Titans-Colts | Bengals-Jets | Rams-Texans | Patriots-Chargers | Jaguars-Seahawks | Washington-Broncos | Buccaneers-Saints | Cowboys-Vikings
8:20 p.m. ET game
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 55) at Minnesota Vikings
Schatz: The Vikings were supposed to have solved their problems with run defense this year by getting Michael Pierce back from COVID opt-out and adding Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson in free agency. It hasn't worked. The Vikings defense ranks dead last in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards, which breaks runs at specific distances to get an idea of how much of the running game is driven by the offensive line compared to the backs in the open field. The Vikings are being pushed around up front. ESPN's run stop win rate agrees and has the Vikings 31st, ahead of only Kansas City.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are No. 1 in adjusted line yards on offense and sixth in run block win rate. I could go with either Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard for a rushing yardage over prop, but I like the Pollard number a little more. Pollard has topped this rushing yardage prop in five out of six games this season.
Pick: Pollard over 38.5 rushing yards (-110)
Marks: The Vikings are coming off a bye and are ready to roll at home. The majority of Minnesota's touchdowns have come via the pass (87%), so expect Kirk Cousins to have a big day against a Cowboys secondary allowing 13 yards per completion. With Trevon Diggs expected to spend the majority of his time on Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen gets a favorable matchup against Anthony Brown, who has allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
Pick: Vikings team total over 27.5, Thielen over 66.5 receiving yards (-115), Cousins over 2.5 TD passes (+150)
4 p.m. ET games
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 49)
Schatz: Believe it or not, the Patriots are actually higher than the Chargers in a lot of advanced metrics this season. This is true of Football Outsiders' DVOA (Patriots 13th, Chargers 17th) as well as ESPN's FPI (Patriots 11th, Chargers 15th). Perhaps we're not measuring schedule strength strongly enough, and the Chargers have played a much tougher schedule than New England so far. But even if we assume that opponent adjustments put these two teams on even footing, you're still getting five points with the Patriots in this game. The gap between these teams is almost entirely on special teams, where the Patriots are 12th in DVOA and the Chargers are 32nd. This is normally where I warn that special teams are the most inconsistent part of football, but the Patriots are the rare team to be consistently strong in this area and the Chargers are consistently bad. The Chargers were 32nd a year ago, and they're 32nd again. Last year, the Patriots beat the Chargers 45-0 with a ton of big special teams plays, including touchdowns on a punt return and a blocked field goal. Special teams may make the difference again this year -- or at least keep the Patriots close enough to cover.
Pick: Patriots +5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 43.5)
Schatz: This is a really low total for a game between two teams with below-average defenses. Actually, "below average" isn't a strong enough term for the Jacksonville defense; DVOA has the Jaguars as the worst defense in the league, even worse than the Kansas City Chiefs. The battle of Geno Smith against the Jaguars D is truly the battle of the resistible force against the moveable object. We may have gotten used to Smith being terrible in his first two starts, but those came against two top-10 defenses in New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The Seattle defense has improved over the last couple weeks but still ranks 21st in the league in DVOA. It's likely that the Seattle offense is going to be better than conventional wisdom would believe, and its defense isn't as good as we've seen the last two weeks. We have this game going over the total in 80% of our simulations.
Pick: Over 43.5
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3, 44)
Walder: FPI has downgraded Denver four consecutive weeks, but the model still thinks the market has moved too far. If the model were setting the line it would make the Broncos 6-point favorites -- remarkable both because of how far off that number is from the market and because thus far this year when FPI has disagreed with a spread it has usually been on the underdog.
Denver feasted on bad defenses like the Giants, Jaguars and Jets early this season. Washington's defense is almost in that territory. It actually has been the fourth-worst defense in the league thus far this season, but because of a strong prior, our model still "only" considers Washington the 11th-worst defense going forward. Still, we could finally see an offensive resurgence from Teddy Bridgewater and company this Sunday.
Pick: Broncos -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 50) at New Orleans Saints
Kezirian: Here I am yet again fading the Bucs. Apparently, I enjoy pain. In all seriousness, I do think the Saints are catching too many points. Tampa Bay struggled offensively last year against New Orleans in all three meetings, and I see no reason to think it will all of a sudden torch New Orleans. Tom Brady does have a better command of the offense nowadays, and he also has better weapons. However, Rob Gronkowski, if he plays, is coming off an injury and Antonio Brown may not play. In short, I like New Orleans to keep this game close and possibly win.
Pick: Saints +5.5
Bearman: During their dream run to the Super Bowl title last year, the Buccaneers and TB12 only had one weakness -- the Saints. They lost the season opener (Brady's first game in a Tampa uniform) in the Superdome and then were blown out 38-3 in Week 9 at home for two of their five losses. The Bucs got their revenge in the divisional round, but it was not easy, as they trailed throughout before taking their first lead with 9 minutes left.
Yes, those were Drew Brees' Saints, but Brees also contributed to the loss, throwing three interceptions in his last career game. More impressive to me was what the Saints defense was able to do against the high-flying Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs were held to 310, 194 and 316 yards in the three games. We can chalk the first one up to it being Brady's first game in the new offense, but the Bucs were arguably less impressive in the other two games. Brady averaged 216 yards passing with more interceptions than TDs, and Tampa trailed for the majority of the 180 minutes. Brady's 35.7 QBR was the second-worst of any QB the Saints faced last year and more than 30 points below his season (regular and postseason) average of 67.8. The Bucs have yet to cover a road game this season (0-3 ATS at New England, at Rams and at Philly) and, the Saints are 11-3 ATS as a home 'dog under Sean Payton.
Pick: Saints +5.5
1 p.m. ET games
San Francisco 49ers (-4, 39.5) at Chicago Bears
Schatz: As you might imagine, everything points toward a low-scoring game between San Francisco and Chicago. Both teams are better on defense than on offense, although the difference with San Francisco is likely much smaller than you expect. San Francisco is 16th in offensive DVOA and only 13th on defense. Chicago has a much bigger spread: 29th on offense, eighth on defense. Both of these teams also play at a slower than normal pace. So why am I going over? Because 39.5 is a very low total. Only three games during the first seven weeks of the season had an over/under total below 41, and all three games went over. Although most of Chicago's games have gone under this total, four of San Francisco's six games have gone over. We have this game going over 39 points in 72% of our simulations.
Pick: Over 39.5
Marks: Matt Nagy is doing no favors for Justin Fields. The rookie quarterback has only completed 57.3% of his passes, has a 2-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and faces a 49ers defense with Nick Bosa to contend with. Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start against the Bears for a second straight week.
Picks: Under 39.5; Fields under 28.5 passing attempts (-105), under 189.5 passing yards (-115)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 46)
Schatz: How many games should we be looking at to figure out how good teams really are right now? A lot of fans consider just the last couple weeks of games. Based on that, the Panthers are a wreck right now, having lost four games in a row. But past analysis suggests that it makes the most sense to look at the largest sample possible. Look at just the last four weeks, and the Falcons are 27th in DVOA while the Panthers are 31st. Look at the entire season, and the Panthers are 26th while the Falcons are 31s. Yes, the Panthers are both the team that has lost four straight and the team that dominated the Saints back in Week 2. Both of those games tell us something about how good the Panthers can be going forward.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have gone 3-3 primarily through close wins over bad opponents; only Buffalo has played an easier schedule so far by our numbers. Even in the four-game losing streak, the Panthers pass defense has played reasonably well, while the Atlanta defense has been awful all season. (The Panthers may also be adding cornerback Stephon Gilmore to their secondary this week.) The Falcons' offense is better than the Panthers' offense, but the difference isn't as large. That's why we're taking the Panthers and the points here.
Pick: Panthers +3
Marks: Calvin Ridley is healthy and coming off a 10-target game in Week 7. This week he has a favorable matchup against Donte Jackson, who shadows opposing teams' top receivers and is allowing an average of seven receptions and 80 yards per game. Kyle Pitts will have his hands full vs. Jeremy Chinn, and Matt Ryan will be looking Ridley's way often.
Pick: Ridley over 6.5 receptions (-115)
Moody: Ryan has thrown for 1,204 yards over his last four games. In the last five games, the Panthers' defense hasn't allowed any epic passing performances outside of Kirk Cousins' 373 yards. Taking that out, Davis Mills, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones have only averaged 189 passing yards per game.
Chuba Hubbard has averaged 4.2 targets and 21.2 receiving yards per game since Week 3. To beat the Falcons, Sam Darnold (or P.J. Walker) should lean heavily on Hubbard. As of this week, Atlanta's defense is ranked 31st in points allowed. The Panthers should be able to move the ball up and down the field.
Pick: Ryan under 281.50 passing yards (-115), Chuba Hubbard over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5, 49.5)
Bearman: I could give you a million stats about how bad the Dolphins are or how good the Bills are, or I could just tell you this: 91-26 is the combined score of the last two meetings of these two teams -- a 56-26 Week 17 beatdown last year with a Dolphins playoff spot on the line and a 35-0 white-washing in six weeks ago, right after Miami beat New England and considered itself a contender. The 35-0 loss was the first of six consecutive losses for Miami, which includes consecutive losses to the Jaguars and Falcons the last two weeks.
If you needed stats besides that, the Bills offense is second in the NFL in scoring at 32.1 PPG and fourth with 412.5 YPG and will get to face a Miami defense that is, well, very bad. The Dolphins are last in the league in yards allowed (414.9), second-to-last in points allowed (29.6), 30th in pass defense (297.1) and 31st in stopping third downs to get off the field (51.6%). Having watched every play this season, it actually seems worse. This doesn't even take into account the narrative that Miami is possibly looking to replace their young QB after 13 games or if Brian Flores has lost the locker room after six losses.
Laying almost two TDs isn't easy in the NFL, but we saw the Cardinals and Bucs have no problem covering it last week against bad teams. The Bills have covered games this season by an average of 11.3 points per game (second-best in the league), while Miami is on the other side at -8.7, the second-worst mark in the league. Add it all up and this will be an easy Buffalo win.
Pick: Bills -13.5
Walder: Stefon Diggs' targets per route run is consistent with last season, and his targets are actually deeper than they were a year ago. But one part of Buffalo's passing game has fallen off: Josh Allen's completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Allen was a +4.6% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) passer last year and is under 1% now -- basically league average. It's not a huge drop-off, but it means we probably shouldn't expect Diggs to drastically outperform his opportunity. Thus far this year, Diggs' expected receiving yards have been just 70.2 per game. We'd have to assume he'll outperform expectations by quite a bit to justify anything but the under here -- and I don't think we can do that.
Pick: Diggs under 86.5 receiving yards (+100)
Moody: Allen is surrounded by a variety of receiving weapons, which reflects in his statistics. He averages 287.2 yards passing per game. Over the last five games, quarterbacks have shredded the Dolphins defense. Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan have averaged 336 passing yards per game against them. Allen has passed for 247.3 yards per game against the Dolphins over the course of his career, but with so much dysfunction in that franchise, it's likely he will exceed these per-game averages.
Emmanuel Sanders is essentially playing all of the offensive snaps for a pass-heavy Bills offense, which averages 39.7 passing attempts per game. He averages 6.5 targets and 68.8 receiving yards per game. Sanders will see Dolphins cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard on a regular basis, and those are matchups he can win. Allen has a passer rating of 138.7 when he is throwing to Sanders, so expect them to connect early and often.
Pick: Allen over 283.5 passing yards (-115), Sanders over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Allen is coming off a bye and will be ready to grip it and rip it Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami will bring the blitz and Allen will eat them alive (he has a 67% completion percentage and averages eight yards per attempt vs. the blitz). Look for Sanders, who is averaging seven targets per game, to pick up where he left off.
Pick: Allen over 2.5 TD passes (+130), Sanders over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 42.5)
Fortenbaugh: I'm grabbing the +3.5 with Pittsburgh now because I have a feeling the Cleveland injury report is going to attract enough Steelers money to drive this line down to +3, possibly lower. Mike Tomlin and company have had two weeks to get ready for this game, which hopefully is enough time for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to refill his nearly empty gas tank. But perhaps more importantly, take note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski is a head-scratching 0-6 against the spread during the regular season against divisional foes. I'm expecting a tightly contested matchup, which makes three and the hook all the more valuable.
Pick: Steelers +3.5, under 42.5
Marks: The Browns are the fifth-slowest team in pace of play and run the ball a lot. Big Ben and the Steelers offense will have a difficult time moving the ball against the Browns' front seven. Both teams are bad on first down, leaving many and-long situations, which will result in punts.
Pick: Under 42.5
Moody: Najee Harris has seen five or more targets in six games this season, including 19 in Week 3 against the Bengals, so it makes sense to expect that he will remain involved as a receiver out of the backfield after the bye. Denver's Javonte Williams had six receptions and 32 receiving yards last week against the Browns, and Austin Ekeler had five receptions and 53 yards in Week 5. Overall, Harris is averaging 40.7 receiving yards per game.
Pick: Harris over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 48) at Detroit Lions
Fortenbaugh: Detroit has a bevy of problems that need correction before this organization is ready to compete on a consistent basis, but there is no way the Eagles should by laying 3.5 points on the road given their performance this season. Philadelphia enters Week 8 ranked 18th in scoring offense, 24th in scoring defense and 27th in red zone defense.
Slow starts doomed the Eagles in each of the last two weeks against Tampa Bay and Las Vegas, and a failure to break quickly from the gate Sunday is only going to breathe life into a winless Lions squad that -- say what you will -- shows up to compete each and every week under head coach Dan Campbell. Don't be surprised if Detroit wins this game outright.
Pick: Lions +3.5
Moody: Jalen Hurts is averaging 245.1 passing yards per game this season overall and 256 yards per game on the road. He now faces a Lions defense that has allowed 275.2 passing yards per game over the last five games to Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. With chatter that Hurts is on his way to being benched in favor of Gardner Minshew, Hurts will put on a show against Detroit and silence his critics. Hurts has averaged 51.6 rushing yards per game this season. The Lions allowed 58 rushing yards to Jackson in Week 3.
On the other side, Jared Goff has only one game with 300 or more passing yards and three with less than 220 yards. The Lions' receivers do not have an advantage against any of the Eagles' cornerbacks. Philadelphia's defense has allowed only 262.6 passing yards per game to Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Tom Brady and Derek Carr over the last five games.
Pick: Hurts over 253.5 passing yards (-115), over rushing yards 47.5 rushing yards (-115), Goff under 265.5 passing yards (-130)
Walder: Fearless Dan Campbell doesn't have time for field goals. He's trying to win games and bite some kneecaps, not put points on the board to lose slower. Seriously though, Campbell has been strong in his fourth-down decision-making, and that suggests fewer field-goal attempts than the average team. Odds are the Lions will be losing, so they'll need to make up ground anyway.
Pick: Austin Seibert under 1.5 field goals (-135)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 50.5)
Fortenbaugh: If the Colts don't blow a 19-point lead with 16 minutes remaining at Baltimore back in Week 5, Frank Reich's club would be riding a four-game winning streak entering Sunday's divisional tilt with Tennessee. Translation: You may have missed it, but the Colts are good again. Additionally, with the Titans winning back-to-back marquee showdowns against Buffalo and Kansas City, Tennessee enters Week 8 a bit overvalued, in my humble opinion. The difference in this game will come down to defense. Indy can play it, Tennessee can't.
Pick: Colts -1
Kezirian: I realize Tennessee has impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo, but this game is virtually a must-win for Indy. I also have been impressed with the Colts defense. Carson Wentz does concern me a bit, but ultimately I just have to play the situational spot and back the Colts.
Pick: Colts -1
Moody: Jonathan Taylor has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 126 rushing yards over the last two weeks. The Colts' offensive line should create running lanes for the second-year running back against the Titans, and he's talented enough to take advantage of them. More than 40.5% of Tayor's rushing yards have come on gains of 15 yards or more. In the last few weeks, Tennessee's defense has played much better, but it gave up 149 rushing yards to James Robinson a few weeks ago.
On the other side Derrick Henry has averaged 30.1 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 146.1 yards per game this season. In combination with Henry's unique playmaking ability, the Titans' offensive line has a strong matchup against the Colts' offensive line. Henry has nine rushes of 15 yards or more, accumulating 264 yards on those carries, and averages 8.6 yards per reception.
Pick: Taylor over 67.5 rushing yards (-115), Henry rushing/receiving yards over 119.5 (-110)
Marks: Wentz has been hot and looked good in horrible weather last week. The Titans defense looked good against the Chiefs, but they are still allowing 12 yards per completion, and Wentz will take some deep shots against them. Julio Jones is still not practicing, so it will be a heavy dose of A.J. Brown, who is averaging nine targets per game over the last two weeks.
Pick: Wentz over 244.5 passing yards (-115), Brown over 5.5 receptions (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5, 42) at New York Jets
Bearman: I'm keeping this one simple and playing on a trend that you just hope you aren't too late on. The Jets have been outscored 44-0 in the first quarter in their six games this season. They are the first team to go scoreless in the first six games of a season since the 2008 winless Lions, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Jets are averaging under six minutes of possession in the first frame, losing the yardage battle by close to 100 yards.
The spread for the game has continued to go up all week, and regardless of how good Cincinnati has looked, it's tough to lay double-digits on the road with the Bengals. Remarkably, this would mark the first time they have been favored on the road by more than nine points since 1982! Are we too late to the first quarter trend with the Jets? There are worse things than betting against the worst cover margin team in the league early on.
Pick: Bengals -3 first quarter
Walder: Ja'Marr Chase has been absolutely incredible. He's practically breaking my receiving yards over expectation charts. Chase has recorded 380 receiving yards over expectation. In other words, based on his targets, an average receiver would have accrued 380 fewer yards on those same passes than Chase did, based on expected completed air yards and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats. That is literally more than double any other receiver in the league. Double! And that is precisely why I'm fading him here. Chase may be amazing. Heck, he could already be the best receiver in the league. But playing at a level so far beyond the pack is awfully rare in the NFL, so I'm betting he won't continue to do so going forward.
Pick: Chase under 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Joe Flacco couldn't get to New York in time to prepare to start against the Bengals. Good thing for Joe, bad for the Jets. They will have to roll with Mike White, who will be fed to the Bengals for lunch. Joe Burrow is averaging four carries per game, and Tee Higgins is coming off a 13-target Week 7.
Pick: Under 43, Higgins over 4.5 receptions (-135), White over 1.5 INTs (+170), Burrow over 6.5 rushing yards (-105), Bengals -4.5 in 6-point teaser with Panthers +9
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5, 47.5) at Houston Texans
Fulghum: Not only are the Texans maybe the most talent-deficient team in the league, they just traded away veteran RB Mark Ingram. Brandin Cooks tweeted his noted frustration with the move. The Rams, meanwhile, are one of the most ruthlessly efficient offenses in the league (especially through the air).
Pick: Rams -14.5, Rams over 3.5 touchdowns (-120)
Marks: Matthew Stafford is in line to have another monster week against a Texans defense that is allowing 12 yards per completion. Tyrod Taylor is expected back for the Texans, which will make the Rams keep the pedal to the metal in regard to scoring.
Pick: Stafford over 2.5 TD passes (+105)
Moody: Stafford has thrown passes to Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and other playmakers for an average of 310.3 yards per game this season. Against a Texans defense that allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 304 yards against them earlier this season, the veteran quarterback should continue to roll.
Kupp has an advantage over Texans cornerbacks Desmond King, Terrance Mitchell and Tavierre Thomas. He is averaging 11.6 targets, eight catches and 115.6 receiving yards per game this season and could meet or exceed that average against the Texans.
Last week against the Lions, Tyler Higbee caught five of eight targets for 46 yards. Now he will face one of the worst tight end defenses in the NFL. Higbee has been targeted 11 times in the red zone this season but has only scored one touchdown. He will now face the Texans, who have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends over the last four weeks.
Pick: Stafford over 297.5 passing yards (-115), Kupp over 95.5 receiving yards (-115), Higbee scores TD (+175), Higbee over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)