At long last, the wait is over -- the NBA is back! After the season tipped off Tuesday night, we have 11 more games tonight, including an ESPN doubleheader that starts with the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks and finishes with the Denver Nuggets and last year's Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks and Eric Moody, along with NBA senior writer André Snellings, detail their best bets for Wednesday's games.
Wednesday games
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-1, 217.5), 7:30 ET (ESPN)
Moody: In New York, Evan Fournier is in for another strong season, and he'll be in a good position to post some solid percentages because of the talent around him. Fournier has a far better situation with the Knicks than he was in Boston with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. During the 2020-2021 season, he averaged 17.1 points on 45.7% shooting with 3.4 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 2.8 3-pointers per game. Having Fournier play offensively alongside Kemba Walker and Julius Randle will be a big advantage for him, allowing the veteran to put his playmaking skills to use on the wing. The Celtics will get a glimpse of Fournier's role with the team.
Down low, Randle will continue to be the Knicks' focal point on offense. Randle averaged 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 6.0 APG last season on his way to taking home the NBA's Most Improved Player honors. Power forwards scored 20.81 points, 8.84 rebounds, and 3.67 assists per game against the Celtics last season. Randle has a great chance to surpass those per-game averages on Wednesday.
Pick: Fournier over 15.5 total Points + assists; Randle over 13.5 total rebounds + assists
Snellings: The Knicks played the slowest pace in the NBA last season, with only 95.9 possessions per game. The Celtics weren't much faster at 98.3 possessions per game, tied for 10th-slowest. The Knicks also allowed the fewest points (104.7 PPG) and the lowest opponent field goals percentage (44.0 FG%) last season, with the Celtics 11th and 13th in those two categories. Both teams had a lot of turnover in the offseason, but the Knicks will maintain their defensive identity and the Celtics are looking to re-establish theirs with defensive role players surrounding stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In their three meetings last season, these two teams averaged a combined 189.3 PPG, and never scored more than 200 total points. It seems very unlikely that they score 219 or more points on opening night.
Pick: Under 218.5 points
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-3, 219.5), 7:30 ET
Fortenbaugh: A significant chunk of offensive firepower departed these two franchises over the summer, as Russell Westbrook was traded from Washington to the Lakers, while Kyle Lowry joined forces with Jimmy Butler in Miami. As it pertains to this particular matchup, the most important factor to note will be Washington's decline in pace now that Westbrook is on the other coast, as the Wizards led the NBA in that metric last season. Coupled with the aforementioned decline in offensive firepower, I could see this game dragging its way to an under.
Pick: Under 219.5
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-6.5, 224.5), 10 ET (ESPN)
Fulghum: The matchup against the Suns isn't great. They're a good defensive team. However, as long as Jamal Murray is on the shelf, MPJ is going to assume a primary scoring role on this team. This number is too low given his opportunity, usage and talent.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. over 17.5 points (-115)
Moody: When Aaron Gordon was traded to the Nuggets last season on deadline day, he was forced to learn on the fly. In 25 games, he averaged 10.2 PPG and 0.7 3PG in 25.9 MPG. Gordon has had the full offseason to become a bigger part of the offense, and the work he's put in on his jump shot has been praised by teammates. We will see the results against the Suns.
Pick: Aaron Gordon over 10.5 points
Snellings: I agree with Tyler about Porter, who has shown himself to be a dominant scorer in each of the last two seasons when Jamal Murray was sidelined. Two seasons ago, in the bubble, Porter burst onto the scene averaging 26.3 PPG in the first four games while Murray was out. Then, last season, Porter averaged 25.3 PPG in the 16 games after Murray was injured before shifting down at the end of the season.
Another player poised for a bigger offensive role with Murray out is Monte Morris, who has officially been named the starting point guard for the opener. Morris was injured himself late last season while Murray was out, but started playing starter minutes about halfway through the Nuggets' playoffs run. In those last six playoffs games, he averaged 15.8 PPG and 5.7 APG in 30.7 MPG, and in four of those games he scored at least 19 points with at least five assists. On the Suns' side, the most clockwork player in their match-ups with the Nuggets has been Deandre Ayton. Ayton notched double-doubles in all three regular season meetings to average 22.0 PPG and 11.7 RPG, and he also notched double-doubles in three of the four playoffs meetings. Ayton seems to relish his matchups with Nikola Jokic, and he will be matched up with the reigning MVP on opening night.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 points (-115), Michael Porter Jr. over 25.5 total points/assists/rebounds; Monte Morris over 11.5 points (-130), Morris over 3.5 assists (-130); Deandre Ayton double-double yes (-105), Deandre Ayton over 14.5 points (-120)
Tuesday games
Milwaukee Bucks 127, Brooklyn Nets 104
Fortenbaugh: Kevin Durant and the Nets have a lot to prove. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have literally nothing to prove after winning the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy last season. As rudimentary as it sounds, I think Tuesday's matchup boils down to the fact that one team is coming in hungry and the other team is coming in happy. I like my money to stay hungry. Remember, this is a Nets roster that pushed the Bucks to overtime in Game 7 last season despite injuries to both Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
Marks: The Bucks will be home celebrating their 2020-21 championship, while the Nets will be missing their third wheel -- Kyrie Irving. Teams are not firing on all cylinders at the start of the season, so I believe this total is too high. Also, the under has hit six of the past eight times these two teams have played.
Picks: Bucks (Pk); Under 237.5; Joe Harris over 11.5 points (-105)
Snellings: I agree with Joe that this game will be partially decided by motivation, but I don't believe the Nets are the only team coming in hungry. The Bucks have been hearing for months that they're lucky, that the only reason they won the championship is the Nets were injured. The Bucks strike me as a very prideful team, led by their MVP and best player, and I suspect they've heard the rumbles. While teams do often suffer letdowns on Ring Night, and the Bucks will be celebrating their championship, I think that this is the rare case that both teams still enter the game (and season) with something to prove.
Thus, to me, this comes down to matchups. While Durant and Harden are both MVP-caliber players, the biggest mismatch in this game is still Giannis. The Nets struggle to defend the paint, and Giannis is the most dominant paint finisher in the NBA. In their three regular-season matchups last season, two of which were won by the Bucks, Giannis averaged a whopping 39.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 5.0 APG. The two teams also averaged a combined 240.3 PPG in those matchups, twice scoring 242 or more points.
Picks: Bucks (Pk); Over 237.5 points; Antetokounmpo over 30.5 total points; Antetokounmpo over 48.5 total points + assists + rebounds
Moody: Even though Brook Lopez is now 33 years old, he is still a valuable contributor to the Bucks. The 2020-21 season saw him average 12.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 3-pointers, 0.7 assists and 1.5 blocks per game on 50.3 FG% and 84.5 FT%. As a team, the Nets allowed 22.32 points, 14.58 rebounds and 3.68 assists per game to centers last year, while Lopez averaged 27.2 minutes per game. On opening night, he'll get enough minutes to be successful and rack up numbers.
Giannis is 26 years old and in peak physical shape. He should be able to pile up stats against the Nets, especially after winning a championship. Last year, Antetokounmpo averaged 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. The Nets, meanwhile, gave up 23.19 points, 11.01 rebounds, and 3.87 assists to power forwards.
Irving is out indefinitely, so Harden will start at point guard for the Nets. He'll continue to be a great scorer, but he could also lead the league in assists. Last season, Harden averaged 24.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game. Meanwhile, the Bucks allowed 25.13 points, 5.61 rebounds and 7.84 assists to point guards. Harden should top those numbers.
Picks: Brook Lopez total points + assists + rebounds over 18.5; Antetokounmpo total points + assists + rebounds over 47.5; James Harden total points + assists + rebounds over 42.5
Golden State Warriors 121, Los Angeles Lakers 114
Snellings: The Warriors are contenders this season, but much of that is dependent on All-Star Klay Thompson returning to the team healthy and playing at a high level. Thompson isn't ready to return yet, though, so the current Warriors team is similar in caliber to its team from last season. Those Warriors did beat the Lakers once in three games, but across those three games the Lakers posted a huge plus-18.3 scoring margin. On the whole, the Lakers were just way too much for the Warriors to handle.
These Lakers have many new faces, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy and motivated after limping to the finish line last season. In addition, new Laker Russell Westbrook will be making his home debut in his hometown of Los Angeles, so he should also be a ball of energy. A motivated Lakers team, at its best, plays excellent defense. In their three meetings last season, the Lakers held the Warriors to an average of 101.0 PPG, and the teams combined to average 220.3 PPG.
Pick: Lakers (-3.5); Under 228.0 points
Marks: It's going to take a hot second for the addition of Russell Westbrook to jell, considering he averaged more turnovers than assists in the preseason. The Warriors have more depth, and the Lakers will be without Trevor Ariza and Talen Horton-Tucker. Thompson is not expected back until Christmas, and Curry will be ready to carry the load.