As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers to those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 6!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 4-3-8
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 6 games
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3, 54)
FPI's Implied Line: Browns -1
The Cardinals may have won and the Browns may have lost, but FPI's adjustments are all about expectations. And neither team significantly differed from its pregame expectation in Week 5.
FPI predicted the Cardinals to beat the 49ers by 5; they won by 7. It thought the Browns would lose to the Chargers by 2; they lost by 5, and with a strong offensive performance, too, which is preferable for future performance. So while the Cardinals received a slight upgrade and the Browns received a negligible downgrade, the model sees this game largely the same now as it did 12 hours ago: The Cardinals are the slightly better team, and the Browns should be very slight favorites at home.
Even with a middling prior game, FPI had been convinced by Arizona already after it recorded the second-best total efficiency (expected points added per play with garbage time down weighted) in the league through the first four weeks of the season (in three road games, too). That was enough to push the Cardinals up past a bunch of teams, Cleveland included.
The Cardinals getting a full field goal looks like a value.
FPI's side: Cardinals +3
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 48.5) at Detroit Lions
FPI's Implied Line: Bengals -2
Detroit has multiple losses that would have been victories -- including Sunday against the Vikings -- had an opponent's long field goal at the end of the game missed. The Lions look cursed ... but they're not awful. Let me take that back. They're awful, but not like Jaguars-awful. Not Texans-awful. Not Jets-awful. There are degrees, and FPI makes a distinction between the Lions and those three franchises.
Offensively the difference between these two teams is ... smaller than it might seem? Through the 4 p.m. window the Lions rank 26th in EPA per play and the Bengals are just a few spots higher -- at 20th. And, yes, the difference is much larger on defense, but defense is more unpredictable from game to game. The clearest indicator is offense.
It's worth noting the Packers were the first really good team the Bengals have faced, too.
On a neutral-field FPI considers Cincinnati roughly 3.5 points better. If that's the truth, as long as home-field advantage is worth something that makes Cincinnati the side to take. The differential between FPI and the spread isn't huge, but it crosses the key number of 3 entirely, so it is significant.
FPI's side: Lions +3.5
Futures
Arizona Cardinals to win NFC West (+125)
FPI Projection: 65% (-186)
This feels aggressive on Arizona, given the strength of this division.
But FPI sees this as a two-team race between the Cardinals and Rams, with Seattle and San Francisco more or less out of the divisional race given that both teams currently have QB injuries and are several games back in the standings.
But the split between Arizona and Los Angeles? That has to do with the fact that FPI thinks the Cardinals are slightly better, going forward, already have a one-game lead and already have a win over the Rams. Those in-the-bag accomplishments for Arizona nudge the projection in its favor.
Early Week 6 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 53) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday
Miami Dolphins (-3, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers (-4, 46) at Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 48.5) at Detroit Lions
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 43)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Minnesota Vikings (-1, 47) at Carolina Panthers
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 50)
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3, 54)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 44.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48) at New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 43)
Monday