Intro by Doug Kezirian
After back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, the Kansas City Chiefs are potentially on the verge of passing the proverbial AFC torch to the Buffalo Bills. They face each other at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night, and Buffalo could hand Kansas City its third loss within the season's first five weeks.
The Chiefs are 2.5-point home favorites, with some sportsbooks posting the key number of three.
"I think that's probably right and where it will end up. It implies Kansas City is slightly better when you account for the home field," PointsBet director of trading Jay Croucher told ESPN. "It's three with more potential to go back to 2.5 than 3.5."
The Chiefs are coming off a double-digit win and cover against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they are still just 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games, dating back to last season. They remain a Super Bowl betting favorite or second favorite at all sportsbooks, but that will certainly change if they fall to 2-3.
"Getting the one seed would be extremely difficult [with a loss Sunday], and that would alter the futures market," Croucher said. "The Chiefs are basically the Brooklyn Nets in that they're going to have an all-time offense and then a defense that can hopefully be respectable in big games."
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (7-8-2, 3-0 last week), Tyler Fulghum (5-6, 2-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (18-7-1, 5-0) and Anita Marks (82-48, 18-13), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (7-5), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (18-22, 5-5) and Mackenzie Kraemer (1-4, 1-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (11-5-1, 2-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (16-6, 5-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: New York Jets-Atlanta | Miami-Tampa Bay | Green Bay-Cincinnati | Detroit-Minnesota | Denver-Pittsburgh | New Orleans-Washington | Philadelphia-Carolina | Tennessee-Jacksonville | New England-Houston | Chicago-Las Vegas | Cleveland-Los Angeles | New York Giants-Dallas | San Francisco-Arizona | Buffalo-Kansas City
8:20 p.m. ET game
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)
Fortenbaugh: We all know Kansas City's offense is the best in the business, as evidenced, in part, by the fact that the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.9. But this defense is absolutely abysmal and ranks dead last in opponent yards per play at 6.9. That means the Kansas City defense is making every opponent look like the Kansas City offense! Buffalo is one of the most well-balanced teams in the league and is well aware of the hostile environment it's walking into Sunday night thanks to last year's AFC Championship game. Don't be surprised if the Bills win this game outright.
Pick: Bills +2.5, Bills +8.5 in 6-point teaser with Cowboys -1
Kezirian: The most consistent group in this matchup has been Kansas City's defense. Simply, they have been pretty poor this season. Patrick Mahomes and his heroics have been able to keep the train on the tracks. He might have another rescue in him so I prefer to isolate a favorable matchup for Buffalo's offense. We could have ourselves a shootout and I would just rather bet on Buffalo's ability to score points.
Pick: Bills team total over 27.5 points
Marks: The Bills are a team designed to beat the Chiefs. They should hit their team total over easily, considering KC's defense allows the highest first down conversion rate to opponents. Josh Allen will move the ball at ease. Look for Devin Singletary to play a larger role on offense this week due to the personnel groups.
Pick: Bills team total over 27.5, Allen over 2.5 TD passes (+150)
4 p.m. ET games
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, 44)
Schatz: Derek Carr has easily cleared 300 passing yards in three of his four games this year, so don't overreact to last week's lesser performance against the Chargers. He gets to enjoy the home cooking of a dome, and he has one of the strongest home/road splits in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Bears increase opposing passing yards by roughly 16%, and neither outside linebacker Khalil Mack (ribs) nor defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (groin) practiced Wednesday or Thursday. That's two of the most important Bears defensive players who will either miss the game or play at less than 100%.
Pick: Carr over 279.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: Justin Fields is not passing the ball often and will be without running back David Montgomery this week. Hunter Renfrow will continue to warrant targets from Derek Carr in Week 5.
Pick: Fields under 30.5 passing attempts (+100), Renfrow over 4.5 receptions (-115), Raiders +0.5 in 6-point teaser with Cardinals +1
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 47)
Fortenbaugh: Both teams rank in the top seven in scoring defense and both teams are in the top 12 in opponent yards per play. Additionally, Cleveland ranks 27th in the NFL in pace and first in rushing attempts per game (35.0). That's the recipe for an under, if you're new to planet Earth. What's also worth noting here is the fact that the Chargers defense has held every opponent to its lowest scoring output this season. I'm a bit surprised this total is north of 45 points.
Pick: Under 47
Schatz: With their upset of the Chiefs and then a big win on national TV against the Raiders, the Chargers ascended to the top tier of the NFL. But advanced metrics that are based on play-by-play breakdown don't have the Chargers as high as conventional wisdom. Football Outsiders' DVOA has the Chargers only 14th in the NFL through four games, and it's not alone. ESPN's FPI has the Chargers 10th, while The Athletic's EPR has them 16th. All three systems have the Browns ranked higher than the Chargers right now. DVOA has the Browns higher than the Chargers in all three phases of the game -- even, surprisingly but barely, offense, where the Browns are ninth and the Chargers are 11th. That's driven by Cleveland's running game, which ranks No. 2 behind Dallas.
The Chargers' run defense is 25th, so the Browns should be able to control the game on the ground while their defense (third in DVOA) holds Justin Herbert below his usual performance. I'm a little worried now by stories about Baker Mayfield's separated non-throwing shoulder, because there's no question the Browns' passing game has suffered over the last two weeks. But I'll stick with my numbers here, which are strongly on Cleveland in this game.
Pick: Browns +1.5
Marks: The Chargers' defense is one of the best against opposing quarterbacks this season. I don't see Mayfield rebounding here from a horrible performance against the Vikings last week.
Pick: Chargers -2, Mayfield under 222.5 passing yards (-110)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 52)
Schatz: The Cowboys have been excellent this season and currently rank second in DVOA overall. Their surprisingly competent defense is 10th, and their outstanding offense ranks third. The Giants are 21st overall in DVOA, which is pretty good for a 1-3 team but far below what we've seen from Dallas. The Giants have been slightly above average on offense (12th) but lousy on defense (27th). In particular, the Giants rank 26th against the run, a real problem against a Cowboys team that has the best running game in the league this year. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard rank first and third, respectively, in both Football Outsiders DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and Next Gen Stats' RYOE (rushing yards over expectation).
Pick: Cowboys -7
Fortenbaugh: Dallas is a Ryan Succop buzzer-beating field goal away from a perfect 4-0 record with wins over the Buccaneers and Chargers who, it turns out, appear to be quite formidable this season. Credit quarterback Dak Prescott and an offense that currently ranks fourth in scoring (31.5 PPG) and sixth in yards per play (6.4). Maybe the Cowboys don't cover the full Monty here, but I certainly like them in a 6-point teaser to cover -1.
Pick: Cowboys -1 in 6-point teaser with Bills +8.5
Marks: Prescott has been targeting his tight ends a lot lately (Dallas has played a lot of 12 personnel). Expect more volume for Dalton Schultz in Week 5, especially with Jabrill Peppers injured. I'm also taking Giants-Cowboys over 46 in a 6-point teaser with Broncos-Steelers under 45.5.
Pick: Schultz over 4.5 receptions (+105)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 50)
Walder: A.J. Green was the third-worst receiver in the entire league in yards over expectation based on NFL Next Gen Stats expected completion percentage and expected YAC last season at -103, meaning an average receiver ought to have recorded over 100 more yards based on the throws he was targeted on, and he also performed poorly in separation over expectation at the same time.
Green did upgrade at quarterback in his move to Arizona -- and QBs do play a role in exceeding expectation metrics -- but he now has the eighth-most receiving yards over expectation in the league, and his expected receiving yards per game based on opportunity is 36.2. I'm banking on regression.
Pick: Green under 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Kyler Murray has been sensational all season, and as a result the Cardinals are 4-0. He is averaging 318.2 passing yards per game this season, but Murray hasn't had success passing against the 49ers. His only win against San Francisco came in Week 1 of the 2020 season. Murray threw for 230 yards, one touchdown and an interception in that game (he also rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown). In four games against the 49ers, Murray has averaged 217 passing yards per game with a completion percentage of 66.7. So far this season the 49ers are only allowing 218.2 passing yards per game to opponents.
Pick: Murray under 285.5 passing yards (-115)
9:30 a.m. ET game (in London)
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, 46)
Bearman: London has this one followed by Jaguars-Dolphins next week, so the fans across the pond should not expect much offense. Even with the "offensive explosion" of 27 points last week vs. the Titans, the Jets are dead last (by a wide margin) at 11.8 points per game and 28th or lower is all main offensive categories. Our friends at Football Outsiders have the Jets last in DVOA offense across the board. Know who is 31st? Yep, the Jets' opponent this week. The Falcons are 24th or worst in all offensive categories, and that's also after their best performance of the year last week against Washington.
While the Falcons' defense has been as bad as its offense, the Jets' hasn't been half bad, coming in 18th in DVOA and holding opponents to under 24 points per game. I don't expect either team to break 20 in this one, making under 46 total points appealing. Seven of the last 10 London games went under the total, with the two last year ending in 26-3 and 24-10 scores. Might need an extra cup of coffee for this one.
Pick: Under 46
Kraemer: It's hard to envision a Falcons team without Calvin Ridley being favored by a field goal over any team in the NFL on a neutral site other than the Texans and Jaguars. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and without Ridley their offense takes a major hit. On the other side, the Jets have had a top-15 defense this season, led by an underrated pass rush with 13 sacks in four games. They've also been stingy in the red zone, ranking fourth in the NFL in red zone efficiency. The Falcons have not been able to generate big plays all season, and now their best receiver is out.
The problem with the Jets all season has been the offense, but they flashed some signs of life late last week, and now they are likely to have their top three receivers healthy for the first time all season. Zach Wilson is capable of throwing a game away with multiple interceptions, but the Falcons only have two takeaways this season. The Jets defense matches up well with the Falcons offense, and if Wilson doesn't throw the game away, the Jets should be very competitive for a second straight week.
Pick: Jets +3
Walder: Here's the absurd thing about Cordarrelle Patterson's little breakout he's having at age 30 (!) -- he's not even playing that much! He played 30% of the Falcons' offensive snaps in last week's loss to Washington and only 42% in their win over the Giants the week before that. He has also vastly exceeded his receiving production based on his opportunity. Based on expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats, Patterson was only expected to record 26.6 receiving yards per game (well below his actual 58.8 receiving yards per game) -- which makes this line look awfully high.
Pick: Patterson under 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts has averaged 6.5 targets and 47.2 receiving yards per game this season while playing 76% of the offensive snaps. With Ridley and Russell Gage already ruled out, he's positioned to have a breakout game. Pitts has the potential to set career highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards against the Jets.
On the other side, Jets wide receiver Corey Davis has exceeded 95 receiving yards in two of four games this season while averaging 7.2 targets per game. The Falcons have been torched by No. 1 receivers over the last three weeks. Terry McLaurin (123 yards), Kenny Golladay (64) and Mike Evans (75) have all had big games against Atlanta. Davis is in a good position to join that group in Week 5.
Pick: Pitts over 57.5 receiving yards (-125), Davis over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
1 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 48)
Bearman: The Dolphins' coaching staff has promised needed changes this week for an offense that can't get much worse. Since Tua Tagovailoa left on the first drive of the Dolphins' second game, an already conservative offense turned into a flag football-style, check-down passing game with no rushing. For the season, the Dolphins are averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 7.47 yards per completion, both way last in the league. And the numbers are even worse with Jacoby Brissett under center. You can't put all the blame on the QB, as tackles Austin Jackson and Liam Eichenberg rank 67th and 68th out of 73 NFL tackles this season, per Pro Football Focus. All around bad here. The no-huddle offense when down two scores in the fourth quarter has accounted for 80% of the Dolphins' yardage this season.
The Bucs and Tom Brady, meanwhile, come in off an emotional night in Foxborough, facing a potential flat spot against the 1-3 Dolphins. Tampa was held to 19 points on four FGs last week against Bill Belichick's defense and now face a Belichick disciple in Brian Flores. I am not calling for any sort of upset, but I do think both offenses could struggle early. Between a possible flat spot for Tampa and the Dolphins offense, which has scored 20 offensive first-half points in four games (10 of which came off short fields), I am jumping on the first half under.
Pick: First half under 24
Pick: Parker over 53.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: This is just a silly line. Tampa Bay should not be laying double digits against a team like Miami. I realize QB Jacoby Brissett has looked limited but Tampa's defense is too thin with injuries. We just saw the Bucs struggle in New England and bettors were willing to pay a tax in that game. This line is just too high so I have to take Miami.
Pick: Dolphins +10
Green Bay Packers (-3, 51) at Cincinnati Bengals
Bearman: I have not been shy about backing the Packers this year, having picked them all four weeks and holding a -155 NFC North ticket. Throw out the first week fiasco and the Packers are 3-0 ATS with the sixth-best cover margin. In those three games, the Packers offense is in the top five in offensive efficiency, points per game and total QBR. Rodgers is fifth in QBR and the offense continues to roll.
The Bengals have had a good start to the season, getting to 3-1 for the first time since 2018, but remember, those wins are against the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars, who have combined for two wins. They trailed 14-0 to the Jags last week, and if they play anything like they did in that first half, this one will be over early. The Packers' 13 ATS covers since the start of last season are tied for most in the league, and Matt LaFleur's squad is 11-7 against the number on the road over the last three seasons.
Pick: Packers -3
Fulghum: This total is sitting above 50 because Aaron Rodgers is on one side and Joe Burrow is starting to find his rhythm in his sophomore campaign on the other side. Despite the potentially dynamic quarterback play, these two teams are far from fast-paced. The Packers have perennially been among the slowest offenses in the NFL with Rodgers pulling the trigger, and the Bengals games are so far averaging the fewest combined snaps of all teams in the NFL. Play volume and pace are likely to be depressed in this matchup, meaning efficiency will have to be extraordinarily high to hit the over.
Pick: Under 51, Rodgers under 23.5 completions (-105)
Moody: Since 2017, Davante Adams has averaged 10.3 targets, seven receptions and 85 receiving yards per game in 59 active games since 2017. He has exceeded 100 receiving yards in two out of four games this season and is averaging 12 yards per reception. The Bengals secondary gave up some big performances to Laviska Shenault (99 yards) and Chase Claypool (96) over the last two weeks. Adams is likely to be lined up across from cornerback Eli Apple for a high percentage of snaps. This is a matchup he should dominate.
Pick: Adams over 92.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Jaire Alexander is out due to a shoulder injury, and rest of the Packers' secondary (Erik Stokes, Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan) just isn't very good. The Bengals get Tee Higgins back this week, and Ja'Marr Chase should have a field day against Green Bay's secondary. Chase has over 250 receiving yards against man coverage this season, best in the NFL.
Pick: Burrow over 1.5 TD passes (-200), Chase over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5, 49)
Schatz: Even bad quarterbacks put up high passing numbers in the modern NFL. In fact, passing when behind may make them even more likely to put up those high yardage totals. Jared Goff has averaged 275 passing yards this season. He's playing a Vikings defense that has allowed 278 passing yards per game this season. We have Minnesota as the No. 3 increaser of passing yards per attempt, 22% above average. Plus, the game is indoors in Minnesota. We estimate Goff has a 73% chance to beat this prop.
Pick: Goff over 255.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: I'm interested in fading the Detroit kicking game. Through four weeks, the Lions have sacrificed the least amount of win probability through fourth down decision-making errors, according to our win probability model. In other words, they've been aggressive relative to the average team -- and that means eschewing field-goal attempts for fourth down tries.
Picks: Lions field goals under 1.5 (-142 at FanDuel)
Moody: Goff has averaged 275 passing yards per game this season. He may not have a plethora of receiving weapons, but Goff faces a Vikings defense that has allowed 278 passing yards per game so far in 2021 from Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield.
Pick: Goff over 255.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: Kirk Cousins is quietly putting on a QB clinic this season. This week he gets a juicy matchup against a Lions secondary that is allowing a league-high 11 yards per completion. Tee up Justin Jefferson, who is receiving a 26% target share from Cousins.
For the Lions, D'Andre Swift is playing in almost 75% of the snaps this season and is a large part of the passing game. And the Vikings' rush defense is allowing almost five yards per carry.
Pick: Cousins over 283.5 passing yards (-115), Jefferson over 6.5 receptions (+110), Swift over 79.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 39.5)
Marks: Denver might have to start Drew Lock, and Ben Roethlisberger has been a disaster this season. The pace of play for both teams are two of the lowest in the league. So, I'm thinking teaser for this one. Dallas and the Giants are the polar opposite in pace of play and have two QBs that are having career years.
Pick: Broncos-Steelers under 45.5 in a 6-point teaser with Giants-Cowboys over 46
New Orleans Saints (-2, 44) at Washington Football Team
Schatz: The big difference between these two teams is on the defensive side of the ball. We thought that Washington was going to be one of the NFL's top defenses this year, but all kinds of problems in the secondary have left them a dismal 28th in defensive DVOA so far. The front four is still strong, but the Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the league to counter that.
Meanwhile, the Saints defense ranks second in DVOA behind only Buffalo. They shut down opposing running games (3.1 yards per carry) and their high total of passing yardage allowed is largely due to a high number of pass attempts against them. (They are fourth in pass attempts faced but average in net yards allowed per pass.) The offenses have been roughly even so far this season, but superior defense makes New Orleans the favorite in this one.
Pick: Saints -2
Moody: This isn't the Saints offense we expected from quarterback Jameis Winston and head coach Sean Payton. Winston has averaged a dismal 21.2 pass attempts and 153.2 passing yards this season. It would be wise for Payton to attack Washington through the air. The Football Team's defense has allowed some big games this season from Justin Herbert (337 yards), Daniel Jones (249), Josh Allen (358) and Matt Ryan (283).
For Washington, Terry McLaurin caught six of 13 targets last week against Atlanta for 123 yards. McLaurin has averaged 88.5 receiving yards per game so far this season and should find more success against a Saints defense that was disassembled by Daniel Jones last week. Over the last three games, New Orleans' defense has been gashed by Kenny Golladay (116 yards yards), Kendrick Bourne (96) and DJ Moore (79).
Pick: Winston over 204.5 passing yards (-115), McLaurin over 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45)
Bearman: The Panthers have been one of the more impressive surprise teams this season. They have had a fairly easy schedule, earning wins over the Jets and Texans, but as we saw last week, good teams can still lose those games -- as the Titans did to the Jets. Carolina also dominated the Saints and, most impressively, went toe-to-toe with a very good Cowboys team last week without All-Pro Christian McCaffrey. Sam Darnold has flourished with the change from New York to Carolina, recording the sixth-best QBR in the league. McCaffrey was back at practice this week and will be a game-time decision, but the Panthers should be fine with Chuba Hubbard back there and DJ Moore doing his thing at WR.
Even after getting run out by the high-powered Cowboys offense, the Panthers' defense is third in the league in points and yards allowed. I admittedly was low on the Eagles this season and, after the Week 1 dismantling of the Falcons, was wondering if they were better than I thought. The last three games have them right where I thought they'd be -- a team trying to figure out an offense under second-year QB Jalen Hurts, who is doing too much, and a defense that is struggling to get off the field. After holding the Falcons and Niners to 23 combined points the first two weeks, Philly has allowed an astounding 83 total points the last two games to the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I do not think the Panthers will put up a 40-spot, I do think they will win this game by more than a field goal. The Eagles have also struggled covering on the road, going 2-8 against the number the last two seasons.
Pick: Panthers -3
Walder: Even before comparing to any other numbers, DJ Moore's receiving line of 87.5 struck me as really high. He's having a fantastic year, don't get me wrong, but that's putting him in some pretty elite territory. That's the same line as Stefon Diggs going against the Chiefs' bad defense! I'm willing to fade Moore because his receiving expectation per game (based on expected completion probability and YAC) has been 77.3 yards on average and -- crucially -- that is way up from an average of 64.3 last season. I doubt he'll sustain at quite the pace he's put together so far.
Pick: Moore under 87.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Eagles are dealing with a number of offensive line injuries, and the Panthers blitz more than any team in the NFL (42%). Expect Hurts to be running for his life in week 5.
Pick: Hurts over 44.5 rushing yards (-120)
Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fortenbaugh: How much game planning do you think is taking place in Jacksonville this week, given the focus on head coach Urban Meyer? Reports indicate that not only have a series of closed-door meetings taken place regarding Meyer's conduct and future, but that the locker room may be close to tuning out a head coach who is just four games into his professional football tenure.
As for the Titans, last week's loss to the Jets wasn't as bad as it looked, as Tennessee outgained New York by 75 total yards, committed zero turnovers and held the ball for more than 11 additional minutes. Fade the dysfunction.
Pick: Titans -4
Fulghum: James Robinson regained his 2020 role in Week 4 with Carlos Hyde on the shelf. Robinson secured 19 touches -- 18 of them rushing attempts -- against the Bengals. Well, Hyde was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, meaning he's likely going to return and eat into Robinson's usage.
Pick: Robinson under 14.5 rushing attempts (-130)
Moody: Robinson has averaged 20.5 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 105 total yards over the Jaguars' last two games. He has also played 75% of the offensive snaps during that time. Titans' opponents have allowed the 16th-most total yards per game to opponents. Robinson should see enough touches to thrive against Tennessee.
Pick: Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards (-115), Robinson over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Marks: The Titans had three early red zone visits last week against the Jets and only came away with nine points. They allowed the Jets to stick around and then lost because of a missed field goal at the end. The Jags have had a lot of distractions this week with the Meyer situation. They will be also be without DJ Chark Jr., so I expect a big game from Laviska Shenault.
Pick: Titans -4.5, Shenault over 57.5 receiving yards (-115), Tannehill over 240.5 passing yards (-115)
New England Patriots (-9, 39.5) at Houston Texans
Fulghum: Davis Mills. Poor Davis Mills. After starting just 11 games in his collegiate career, he's thrust into a starting role in his rookie season for one of the most talent deficient teams in recent NFL history. In the two games he has started in relief of Tyrod Taylor, Mills has thrown for a total of 255 yards and four INTs (against Carolina and Buffalo). Now, Bill Belichick gets to once again devise a wicked game plan against an overmatched rookie QB. Expect opportunity and efficiency to be very low for Mills in this matchup.
Pick: Mills under 207.5 passing yards (-115)
Schatz: Davis Mills. Poor Davis Mills. I would like to repeat everything Mr. Fulghum said, emphasizing the part about four interceptions last week. We estimate an 85% chance that Mills throws at least one interception in this game, and even that seems low.
Pick: Mills over 0.5 INTs (-205 at DraftKings)
Kraemer: Without Taylor, the preseason expectations of the Texans being the worst team in the NFL are coming to fruition. Since Mills became the Texans' quarterback, Houston has scored a total of 16 points in two and a half games of action. Last week in a shutout loss to the Bills, Mills posted the lowest Total QBR (0.8) of any starter in the last three seasons. Now he has to go up against a Patriots defense that feasts on rookie quarterbacks (they forced Zach Wilson into four interceptions in Week 2). The Texans have the fourth-highest designed rush rate in the NFL, while the Patriots' offense has also been conservative, so this game should also feature a low number of plays.
Pick: Texans under 14.5 points (-115)
Walder: This Houston Cover-2 angle has burned me recently, but I'm holding strong with it. The idea here is that the Texans play far more Cover-2 than any other team in the league (48% of Texans pass plays defended when no one else is over 32%), and that Cover-2 allows receptions at a higher rate to running backs than most other coverages. Over the last three years, 19% of dropbacks vs. Cover-2 have resulted in a running back reception, compared to 13% of all other dropbacks. So, I'm sticking with it again -- even with a running back not known for catching the football in Damien Harris.
Pick: Harris over 8.5 receiving yards (-120)
Marks: The Patriots are great against rookie QBs. Mills has struggled, to say the least, and I anticipate more interceptions in his future. Pats running back Damien Harris should carry the rock a lot this game against a Houston defense that is allowing five yards per carry.
Pick: Mills INT (-190), Harris over 67.5 rushing yards (-120), Patriots -3 in 6-point teaser with Bengals +9