Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday when the Jacksonville Jaguars face the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Jaguars (0-3) are still looking for their first win, while the Bengals are 2-1 and coming off an impressive 24-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (13-7-1, 4-1 last week), Doug Kezirian (4-8-2, 0-4), Tyler Fulghum (3-6, 2-2) and Anita Marks (64-35, 13-9), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (8-3-1, 4-0), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 13-17 (4-7), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (11-5, 3-2) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 45.5)
Fortenbaugh: Three games, three double-digit defeats for Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer, who is currently presiding over an outfit that ranks last in the NFL in turnover differential (-8), last in giveaways (9), 24th in yards per play (5.1) and 19th in penalties per game (7.0). The last time Jacksonville hit the road they lost by 16 in Houston against the Texans, and I don't see Thursday night going much differently. Cincinnati has its problems, but a 2-1 record while allowing just 18 points per game is enough to get me involved in a teaser here.
Pick: Bengals -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Chiefs -1
Marks: The Bengals defense is better than expected this season; the unit is allowing under four yards on first down, has the fifth-best pressure rate and gets DB Trae Waynes back for this game. The Jaguars offense is a work in progress, with Trevor Lawrence first in turnover-worthy plays.
The Bengals offense has found the perfect balance with Joe Burrow averaging 11 yards per pass play and Joe Mixon carrying the load with 67 carries already this season. Now they get a Jags defense that is allowing a 75% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and over 120 yards a game to opposing backfields. Expect the Jags to be playing from behind. They will look to get the ball out quick to James Robinson out of the backfield. Bengals WR Tee Higgins is dealing with a shoulder injury on a short work week, so if he is inactive again, expect another big game from Ja'Marr Chase.
Pick: Bengals -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Saints -2, Burrow over 20.5 completions (-135), Chase longest reception over 25.5 yards (-110), Mixon over 20.5 carries (+100), Robinson over 22.5 rec yards (-120)
Fulghum: With Burrow rounding back into the form he displayed before the knee injury as a rookie, the Bengals' aerial attack is set up for perhaps its best game of the season. Jacksonville provides little in the way of intimidating pass defense. With Higgins likely still nursing a shoulder injury, the passing tree is narrowed to just Chase on the perimeter and Tyler Boyd in the slot. Boyd leads the Bengals in targets and catches on throws from Burrow, so with a lower yardage threshold to clear than Chase, I side with Boyd's yardage prop.
Pick: Boyd over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Walder: Chase has recorded 125 more receiving yards than Laviska Shenault Jr. this season, but Shenault has actually had the larger receiving yards opportunity. Based on NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion probability and expected yards after catch for every player's target, we would expect an average receiver to have recorded 158 yards on Shenault's targets and 112 on Chase's. Clearly, Shenault (95 yards) has seriously underperformed and Chase (220) has overperformed.
It's not surprising that Shenault has fallen short of expectations given how poorly his quarterback has played or that Chase has exceeded them given how strong of a prospect he was. But the degree, for both, has been extreme. I'm betting on regression to the mean for both players going forward.
Pick: Shenault over 40.5 receiving yards (-115), Chase under 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Burrow has averaged 256 passing yards per game in 13 active games since 2020 and has seven games on his NFL resume with 245-plus passing yards. I believe he'll have another one this week. The Jaguars' defense has allowed 302.3 passing yards per game this season. While the Bengals' offensive line is far from elite, they should be able to neutralize Jacksonville's pass rush and provide Burrow adequate protection. He has a passer rating of 121 when kept clean. The Bengals' wide receivers should have no problems creating separation from the Jaguars' cornerbacks.
The Bengals' running game is also positioned for success. Mixon's opportunity share so far this season positions him to score a touchdown. He has averaged 25 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game this season. The Jaguars give up 115.7 yards per game on the ground (17th in the NFL). Mixon has just one rushing touchdown this season but averaged 0.5 touchdowns per game from 2018-2020. Jacksonville ranks 28th in the NFL in opponent points per game (30.3), and Burrow and the plethora of weapons at his disposal will be too much for the Jaguars to handle. The total on this game hangs around 46, and the Bengals have gone over the point total in six consecutive games when playing as the favorite.
Pick: Burrow over 245.5 passing yards (-115), Mixon TD (-165), Bengals team total over 26.5
Kezirian: Jacksonville ranks dead last in turnovers and turnover differential. A short week does not resolve the sloppiness. In fact, it typically exacerbates it. I backed the Jaguars last weekend, as the home game rationale was also strengthened by the difficult spot for Arizona. That is not the case here. They hit the road for the first time just days after a regular season game, and it does not seem as though Urban Meyer has made this transition smoothly where his game planning and other protocol are buttoned up. There is a part of me that's concerned with Cincy being a little flat off a big win over a perennial division powerhouse like Pittsburgh but I am hoping the primetime stage will induce their best effort.
I am also teasing the game with several touchdown favorites on Sunday. Playing Cincy to win the game with other similar spreads gives me flexibility for middles and other opportunities, or I will just let it ride with teams I believe will win this week.
Pick: Bengals -7.5, 6pt teaser: Bengals -1.5 with KC -1, 6pt teaser: Bengals -1.5 with TB -.5, 6pt teaser: Bengals -1.5 with GB -.5