Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also not mortgaging future weeks by burning up all your good teams for later. Injuries and teams either overachieving or underachieving will always open up more opportunities later, so early in the season there is less incentive to worry about saving teams.
To make these recommendations, I look at a combination of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), point spreads from Caesars Sportsbook, injury reports, upcoming schedules and any other stats that can potentially provide an edge.
This week, three teams are listed as double-digit favorites in the Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That's the most double-digit favorites in a week this early in the season since Week 1 of 2009.
Those three teams are by far the top three options on the board, and it is hard to go wrong with any of them. The Packers have the most risk but the least future value. The Browns have the best chance to win this week but the most future value. The Buccaneers fall in the middle. Pittsburgh would be the most logical single-digit favorite, but it's not worth losing the win equity.
You can find all the rules here. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
Here are the top picks for Week 2 of the NFL season.
Top picks
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Out of the three double-digit favorites, FPI thinks the Packers have the lowest chance to win. But unlike the Buccaneers and Browns, the Packers have the toughest remaining schedule of the three. The only other obvious opportunities to use them are home games against the Bears (Week 14) and a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington team (Week 7), as well as a road game against Detroit in Week 18. This is the best chance all season to use the Packers. While Green Bay looked terrible last week, the Packers recently have bounced back in these spots. Aaron Rodgers has won seven straight starts following a double-digit loss with an average margin of over 14 points per game.
Line: Packers -11
FPI favorite: Packers 70%
Eliminator Challenge: 17% selected
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
Despite the win last week, fading the Texans in Eliminator Challenge looks like a strong strategy. Even with the win last week, FPI still views the Texans as clearly the worst team in the NFL. As a result, this is the third-most lopsided game of the season, according to FPI. As a result, Cleveland is probably the safest pick on the board. However, the Browns still have home games remaining against the Lions (Week 11), Raiders (Week 15), Bengals (Week 18) and Bears (Week 3), so if you trust the Packers, then saving the Browns could be prudent.
Line: Browns -12.5
FPI favorite: Browns 81%
Eliminator Challenge: 31% selected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were one of the least impressive teams in the NFL last week, falling 32-6 to the Eagles at home. Now they head on the road to face a Buccaneers team on extra rest. Last year, the Buccaneers won and covered all three times with extra rest. Looking ahead, this is the easiest game all season for Tampa Bay, and it is the sixth-most lopsided game all season, according to FPI. Home games against the Bears (Week 7) and Giants (Week 11) are their most notable games later this season to save them.
Line: Buccaneers -12.5
FPI favorite: Buccaneers 80%
Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected