With Week 1 in the books for most teams, sportsbooks face a question that needs to be answered quickly: How much should they adjust their priors based on 60 minutes of game action? But they aren't the only ones running their models immediately: We've cranked up our Football Power Index following the conclusion of the late-afternoon window to see how our numbers compare to the early lines.
Most of the time, FPI and the spreads are fairly aligned. After all, FPI builds its preseason ratings largely off of win totals and bases its adjustments on Week 1 production. But there are usually a few inconsistencies -- and that's true as we look ahead to Week 2. While FPI doesn't have a bank account, if it did, this is where it would put its money -- on these early disagreements.
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 2 games
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-4, 42.5)
FPI says Washington -1.9
I'm not that surprised to see FPI on the Giants' side here considering it favored Big Blue in Week 1, but the interesting part has to do with the quarterback situation in Washington. After Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury that knocked him out of Washington's opening game against the Chargers, we're having FPI operate under the assumption that Taylor Heinicke is Washington's QB in Week 2.
Evidently, our model thinks the drop-off from Fitzpatrick to Heinicke is larger than the oddsmakers do. To give a sense of the drop-off in our eyes: Going into the season, our quarterback projections gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a 98% chance to be better than Heinicke in terms of quarterback EPA per play. 98%! Remember, Fitzpatrick ranked 6th in QBR over the last two seasons in Miami, despite having played behind a poor offensive line. And Heinicke is 28 years old with two career starts to his name. FPI thinks Washington should only be favored by 1.9.
FPI's side: Giants +4
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52)
FPI says Chargers -1.1
FPI upgraded its ratings for both teams here after Week 1 but it moved more on Dallas despite the Cowboys losing and the Chargers winning. The model's movements aren't based on wins and losses but based on expected points added per play in all three phases relative to expectation, and with an opponent-adjustment.
Dallas had the 10th-best offensive EPA per play number of the 28 teams to have played before Sunday night but crucially, it got that number against Tampa Bay's defense -- which FPI projected to be the best in the league. And while Tom Brady had his fair share of success against the Dallas defense, that was supposed to be a total mismatch: a top-5 offense against a below average defense.
Given all that, FPI only makes the Chargers a 1.1-point favorite.
FPI's side: Cowboys +3
Denver Broncos (-6, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
FPI says Broncos -3.7
I tend to think of FPI as being a pretty quick mover early in the season, but this line indicates the market has cut loose its priors on Denver or Jacksonville (or both) more than we're ready to. The Jaguars were a mess in Week 1, with the defense allowing 0.18 EPA per play and the offense accruing -0.01 EPA per play. That latter number isn't great on the surface (20th out of the 28 teams that played before Sunday night), but it's made worse because Jacksonville was playing the defense we expected to be, by far, the worst in the league. Maybe the only saving grace was the Jaguars' 4.8 yards per carry -- certainly Trevor Lawrence's 14.3 QBR wasn't what they team had in mind.
But here's the thing: It was only one game. And Denver's only game -- albeit an expectation-beating victory -- came against the Giants, who the oddsmakers clearly don't have a ton of respect for given their aforementioned Week 2 line. So FPI isn't ready to go this far against Urban Meyer's team just yet.
FPI's side: Jaguars +6
Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 48) at Miami Dolphins
FPI says Dolphins -0.9
This is the opposite situation compared to the game above. Here we're clearly moving more aggressively than the betting lines after Buffalo was upset by Pittsburgh and Miami upset New England. But what's interesting is that we didn't even move that far?
Miami's FPI rating barely budged after a very narrow victory on the scoreboard and on a per-play level. And the Bills? FPI knocked their rating down by a little over a point, but what would you expect? Buffalo's passing offense ranked 24th out of the 28 teams that had played through the late-afternoon window. Does FPI still expect Josh Allen and Co. to be strong the rest of the way? You bet. But less so than we did Sunday morning.
Let's put it this way: FPI entered Week 1 believing the Bills were about 3.5 points better than the Dolphins. The only way it sees the Bills laying 3.5 as the right number is if Week 1 didn't happen and home field advantage didn't exist. But it did and it (probably) does.
FPI's side: Dolphins +3.5
Futures
Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East (+135)
FPI says the Cowboys are a 59% favorite to win the division
This was an almost inevitable number for FPI to like considering it's on Dallas' side, and against Washington's side, in Week 2. But I am surprised plus money is available, at least to this degree, on the Cowboys to win the division after Fitzpatrick was injured. There's admittedly some guesswork on Washington now with Fitzpatrick's status uncertain going forward, but FPI is operating under the assumption that he has at least a chance to return at some point. But even before Dallas played well against the Bucs and Fitzpatrick got hurt, Dallas was FPI's favorite team in the division.
The biggest competitor to the Cowboys now actually looks like the Eagles. FPI significantly upgraded the Eagles' rating after their Week 1 performance, but that still puts Philadelphia roughly a field goal per game behind the Cowboys -- which means Dallas should be able to make up its early one-game deficit.
Our model makes Dallas a 59% favorite to win the NFC East crown.
Early Week 2 Lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-4, 42.5)
Sunday
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 48.5)
New England Patriots (-3.5, 43) at New York Jets
Los Angeles Rams (-4, 47.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 45.5)
Denver Broncos (-6, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-11.5, 48)
Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 48) at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 48) at Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints (-3, 46) at Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 52.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 51)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52)
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 52.5)
Monday
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-10.5, 49.5)