The 2021 NFL season is here, the preseason is done and we're here with betting previews for all 32 teams.
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks and Joe Fortenbaugh, Fantasy's Mike Clay, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, analytics writer Seth Walder and our friends from Football Outsiders (Aaron Schatz and Scott Spratt) combine to offer their best bets for each team, from win totals to championship odds to props and much more.
Note: All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds as of Sept. 3.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 5-2
Division: -320
Over/under: 12.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -1000, No +650
Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP (+500)
Kezirian: We actually have seen several surprise winners in recent memory, with odds of at least 25-1 or longer in five of the past six seasons. Each case stemmed from an unlikely team to grab a top seed, however. Do we see that coming this season? Of course anything is possible in a league known for parity, but for me, I see the elite teams separating themselves. And with that is Kansas City on a mission, thanks to a restructured offensive line. Other quarterbacks will make a splash and grab some headlines, but ultimately they will suffer a couple of losses and fade away. Anyone remember when Russell Wilson was the betting favorite last season? Mahomes is the league's best player and +500 will become value once Week 3 or 4 rolls around.
Travis Kelce under 1,300.5 receiving yards
Fortenbaugh: Should Kelce eclipse this total in 2021, it would mark just the sixth time in NFL history that a tight end has recorded over 1,300 receiving yards in an individual season. That alone should alert you to the ridiculous nature of this price. Kelce set the NFL record for receiving yards by a tight end in a single season last year when he notched 1,416 yards on 105 receptions, which I believe has inflated this year's prop offering and created value in backing the under. There is an extra game this season, but think of how much has to go right in order for the over to cash: Kelce needs to stay healthy, Mahomes needs to stay healthy, Kansas City's receiving unit needs to avoid catastrophe in order to prevent opposing defenses from double-teaming Kelce ... and the list goes on and on and on. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is the best in the business at what he does, but this number is just too high for me to not take a position betting the other side.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)
Odds to win NFC: 3-1
Division: -200
Over/under: 12
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -750, No +500
Shaquil Barrett to record most regular-season sacks (14-1)
Walder: My projected sacks model expects T.J. Watt -- who sits at 8-to-1 -- to record the most sacks, but Barrett is right on Watt's heels in the projection and has much better odds at 14-to-1. Barrett recorded just eight sacks a season ago, but basically everything else is working in his factor, including the upside he showed in 2019 when he hit 19.5 sacks. Barrett is in an exceptional sack environment: He's on a good team, a blitz-heavy defense and -- crucially -- is scheduled to face a slew of quarterbacks (like Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones) who take sacks frequently.
Joe Tryon to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (20-1)
Walder: Unfortunately the odds here have dropped at Caesars so this isn't as good a bet as it once was (though you can shop around and look for a better number), but I do think Tryon should be among the favorites to win this award and he is not. It's for all the same reasons that I laid out with Barrett above: The Bucs produce an incredible sack environment and the quarterbacks they are slated to face averaged the highest past sack rate among all teams' opponents. Last season Jason Pierre-Paul hit 9.5 sacks while ranking just 43rd out of 46 in pass rush win rate, which goes to show how big an opportunity playing for the Bucs is when it comes to sacks. Tryon will have the chance to catch voters' eyes with a gaudy sack total.
Mike Evans under 9 receiving TDs
Spratt: Evans has the greatest QB ever throwing him passes and might be the most natural touchdown scorer at his position with his 6-foot-5, 231-pound frame. But I still like the under on his touchdown prop. Evans scored 2.8 more touchdowns than expected by his opportunity-adjusted total last year, a top-10 surplus at his position. And despite his build, he has fallen short of his expected total in three of his six NFL seasons. Opportunity means more than skill in scoring touchdowns, and Evans will be hard-pressed to see the volume of targets to repeat his 2020 scoring success. When Evans and returning receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown all played together, Evans saw just 7.0 targets per game, 36th at his position.
Buffalo Bills (12-1)
Odds to win AFC: 6-1
Division: -155
Over/under: 11
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +260
Josh Allen under 34.5 passing TDs
Spratt: The Bills demonstrated their confidence in their quarterback after his unprecedented Year 3 breakout, giving him a $258 million contract extension. But you should not conflate that faith with an expectation that Allen will duplicate his incredible 2020 season statistically. Since 2015, Russell Wilson (in 2017-18) is the only quarterback who has thrown for 33 or more touchdowns in consecutive seasons, the prorated total for an over on this prop from when teams played 16 rather than 17 games in a season. Aaron Rodgers hasn't done it. Patrick Mahomes hasn't done it. And Tom Brady hasn't done it. Allen might well be in their company now, but that does not make him likely to throw another 35 touchdowns this season.
Win Super Bowl (+1200), Over 11 wins (-115), Josh Allen MVP (+1200) and most passing yards (+800), Stefon Diggs most receiving yards (+1000)
Marks: The Bills won 13 games last season and only made their team better in 2021 via free agency and the draft. The key will be a healthy roster -- as it is for every team -- but this season is Super Bowl or bust for Buffalo. I love the addition of Emmanuel Sanders to the receiving corps and both Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham on defense. This is the year the Bills get past the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, and I envision a showdown against the Rams in Tinseltown.
Baltimore Ravens (14-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13/2
Division: +120
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +260
Ravens to win Super Bowl (14-1)
Schatz: It's important to remember to look at more than just one year when projecting how teams will do in 2021. Teams tend to rebound toward past performance. Sometimes a big improvement was partly good luck, and sometimes a decline was partly bad luck. So it matters that the Ravens were the dominant team of the 2019 regular season, with one of the 10 best regular-season total DVOA ratings since 1983. No, the Ravens won't be that good again, but they are likely to be better than last year's drop to seventh in overall DVOA. And what about Lamar Jackson's "inability to win in the playoffs"? If last season's win over the Titans wasn't enough for you, just remember that the history of sports is filled with stars who "couldn't win in the playoffs" until the year they won their first championship. I would still favor Kansas City to come out of the AFC, but this +1400 is nice odds for a strong Ravens franchise.
Green Bay Packers (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: -155
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -270, No +220
Aaron Jones under 1,075.5 rushing yards
Walder: According to my projected run block win rate model, no team is expected to drop more in run blocking from last year to this year than the Packers. That's the result of losing elite center Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency, and actually doesn't even consider that David Bakhtiari will begin the year on the PUP list. Between that and former second-round pick AJ Dillon behind Jones on the depth chart, I'm bearish on the prospects of the Packers' starting running back.
Win NFC North (-155)
Bearman: If you look at the eight NFL divisions, I do not think there is a safer value bet than the Packers to win the North at -155. Sure, the Chiefs are likely a better team but that's -320 and I firmly believe the Chargers/Raiders/Broncos are a more formidable challenge than what the Packers face in the North. To that point, -155 implies the Packers win the North 60.8% of the time. I don't know who would win it the other 39.2% of the time, but it won't be the Lions, Vikings or Bears. The Vikings won't win the NFC North after losing tight end Irv Smith Jr., who was a rising star on their offense. Smith's season-ending knee injury, along with a suspect offensive line, will make it difficult for Minnesota to compete with Green Bay for the division title. Detroit is in Year 1 of its 10th rebuild, and the Bears will eventually be breaking in a rookie QB once they realize Andy Dalton isn't the answer. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 26-6 in the regular season and are a legit Super Bowl contender in what could be Aaron Rodgers' last Lambeau hurrah. With Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, the Pack have the two best weapons in the division for the reigning league MVP to use. I'd rather have my money on Rodgers than Dalton, Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins. This shouldn't be a sweat and could very well be locked up early. Lay the 55 cents.
Los Angeles Rams (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: +180
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -190, No +160
Win Super Bowl (+1400), Over 10.5 wins (+110), Matt Stafford MVP (+2000) and most passing yards (+1200), Aaron Donald DPOY (+400)
Marks: The combination of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay should have every defensive coordinator terrified. Stafford is one of the most underrated players in the NFL and I can't wait to see the magic he will create with the Rams. This is a team that is in win now mode and the Rams check all three boxes with a top-5 offense, defense and special teams. I expect the Rams to make it to the Super Bowl and face the Bills in their own backyard.
San Francisco 49ers (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: 2-1
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -170, No +145
George Kittle over 1,050.5 receiving yards
Fortenbaugh: Kittle has eclipsed this mark in two of his past three seasons, but failed to do so last year because he appeared in only eight games due to injury. The Iowa product was averaging a healthy 79.3 receiving yards per game in 2020, however, which put him on track for a lofty 1,268 yards had he played a full 16-game season. Based on last year's results in San Francisco, I believe we are getting a discounted price here. Kittle will be the beneficiary of two very important elements in 2021: head coach Kyle Shanahan's elite play design and a dangerous supporting cast led by wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk that will keep opposing defenses from focusing an abundance of their attention on the tight end position. Also, let's not forget the addition of a 17th game.
Cleveland Browns (16-1)
Odds to win AFC: 8-1
Division: +145
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -220, No +180
Win the Super Bowl (+1600)
Walder: I'm going a little off book here because no model pushes me toward the pick, and the Browns were frankly a little overrated at the end of last year. But I like Cleveland for two main reasons. First, the roster has tremendous upside, with an elite offensive line in addition to stars like Odell Beckham Jr., Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Second, the Browns are the most analytically advanced organization in the league, in my view. And while I'm probably (read: certainly) biased, I think that unquestionably has to give them an edge in some capacity, even if we don't know where that edge exactly lies just yet. I'm willing to bank on it existing, however.
Is there some irony in my betting on the Browns through some unquantifiable belief in their ability to eschew the unquantifiable in decision-making? Sure. But I'm doing it anyway.
Tennessee Titans (25-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: -120
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -160, No +140
Under 9.5 wins (-115)
Schatz: The Titans might be the best team in this division, and I still like them to go under this number. Last year, Tennessee finished only 14th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite going 11-5, marking the Titans as a team in line for some regression. The offense must get used to a new coordinator after the departure of Arthur Smith, and the addition of Julio Jones is somewhat balanced by the departures of Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. We have the defense projected as the worst in the league. Last year, the Tennessee defense ranked 29th in DVOA despite being above average in takeaways -- usually a sign the defense is going to be worse the next year.
Seattle Seahawks (25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 12-1
Division: +280
Over/under: 10
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -120, No +100
Under 10 wins (-130)
Fortenbaugh: You could make a case that Seattle has been one of the most fortunate franchises in the NFL over the past few years as evidenced, in part, by the club's 19-6 record in one-score games dating back to the 2019 season. At some point, that well of good fortune is going to run dry. The Seahawks open the 2021 campaign under their third different offensive coordinator (Shane Waldron) of the last five years, but take note that the previous coaches to occupy the position (Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer) didn't depart the Pacific Northwest to take head-coaching positions. By the way, did we just forget about the fact that quarterback Russell Wilson seemed to passive aggressively try to engineer a trade out of Seattle this past offseason? That type of maneuver doesn't happen when all is well in paradise. Throw in a loaded NFC West and I believe the Seahawks will take a step back this season.
Miami Dolphins (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: +340
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +125, No -150
Tua Tagovailoa over 23.5 passing TDs
Spratt: Tagovailoa might have disappointed in 2020 by the standards of an average starting quarterback and of the player drafted directly behind him, Justin Herbert. But by the rookie quarterback standard he should be judged by, Tagovailoa was totally fine in his freshman season. His -8.5% passing DVOA was middle-of-the-pack for recent rookie starters and barely behind the rates of the two most recent No. 1 picks, Kyler Murray (-3.1%) and Joe Burrow (-7.3%). Quarterbacks tend to make their biggest efficiency improvements from their first to their second seasons. With better play this preseason and better receiving targets in Jaylen Waddle and William Fuller V to foster optimism, Tagovailoa is poised to follow that trend and see a marked jump in his passing touchdown total in particular.
Myles Gaskin under 775.5 rushing yards
Spratt: Gaskin saw a featured workload in his five starts between Weeks 3 and 8 last season before he sprained his MCL. One could take that as an indication he will dominate the team's backfield in touches in 2021, but I fear his heavy workload might have contributed to his injury. Gaskin is undersized for his position at 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds. His 28.7 BMI falls short of the 29-31 range where one typically finds the NFL's lead backs. And while the Dolphins didn't add a star at the position in the draft or free agency, they did sign a bigger back in Malcolm Brown (5-foot-11 and 222 pounds, 31.0 BMI). All three of Gaskin, Brown and Salvon Ahmed played early in the Dolphins' first preseason game, and Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported that head coach Brian Flores plans to use all three backs in a committee this year. Gaskin could fly past 1,000 yards from scrimmage with his rushing and receiving versatility, but even a modest total of 775 rushing yards seems high given his likely role with the team.
New England Patriots (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: +350
Over/under wins: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +125, No -150
Patriots to make the playoffs (+125)
Schatz: The expectation here is not for the Patriots to return to the ranks of the league's top offenses, but rather for them to return to the ranks of the league's top defenses. Based on net approximate value over replacement, the Patriots are adding/returning more defensive talent than any NFL team since at least 2001. Most of the other teams high on this list turned around their defenses significantly, including the 2015 Jets (who improved from 22nd to sixth in DVOA after packing the secondary with players such as Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie), the 2018 Texans (19th to fifth after adding Tyrann Mathieu and getting J.J. Watt back from injury), and the 2009 Broncos (32nd to fifth thanks to free agents such as Brian Dawkins and Vonnie Holliday). Combine excellent special teams and an offense about as good as last year's (23rd in DVOA) with another top defense, put it up against Football Outsiders' easiest projected schedule, and you've got the recipe for a team that should be playing into mid-January even if it can't beat Buffalo. In our last simulation, we had the Patriots make the playoffs 65% of the time; a +125 line supposes the Patriots will make it only 44% of the time!
Bill Belichick to win Coach of the Year +1800
Kezirian: The stage is set for Bill Belichick's resurgence and to create a narrative that he is the ultimate mastermind. I already consider him the greatest coach in NFL history, but he will gain a lot of traction for this award if he takes rookie quarterback Mac Jones to the playoffs after a seven-win season in 2020. If Jones thrives, then Belichick will receive a bulk of the credit. If the defense leads the way, then he will as well, given his defensive background. The Patriots are +350 to win the AFC East, so I'd much rather take 18-1 on this award. If New England wins the division, there is a very strong chance he will get that recognition. Plus, even if the Pats just slide in as a wild-card team, the award is still attainable. After all, Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski won this award last year as coach of a wild-card team. It's been more than a decade since Belichick won this honor so I could easily see the narrative swing his direction with a successful campaign.
Make playoffs (+125), Over 9.5 wins (+100), Mac Jones Offensive POY (+450)
Marks: The Mac Jones era begins in New England, and I couldn't be more thrilled about it. There will be a number of teams (Jets, 49ers, Bears) that will regret allowing Jones to fall to the Pats at No. 15. Jones fits the Pats' system better than most and will thrive behind a top-10 offensive line and the weapons the Pats brought in via free agency and in the draft (Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and Rhamondre Stevenson). Defensively, the Pats get back a number of players who opted out last season due to COVID-19, and will be a very solid unit.
Dallas Cowboys (30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 15-1
Division: +135
Over/under wins: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -140, No +120
Under 9 wins (+110)
Kezirian: It makes more sense to find 9.5 and lay juice, but in any event, I do not see this as a double-digit-win situation. We have been spoiled by elite athletes seamlessly returning from injury, but we have to consider the potential of Dak Prescott being less than 100 percent. After all, he's already dealing with setbacks and he hasn't even taken a regular-season hit. Plus, even at the time of his injury and gaudy numbers, Dallas was struggling to win games. That's because the defense was horrific, and while the Cowboys are taking steps to improve it, problems do not just disappear with a new coordinator.
As for the division, both New York and Washington have improved significantly. This is not a runaway for Dallas, even though the Cowboys are the favorites. And the win total should take a significant hit with a brutal road slate outside the division: Buccaneers, Chargers, Patriots, Vikings, Chiefs and Saints. Dallas will be an underdog in all six and there's a very real chance of 0-6 and 1-5. Let's just give the Cowboys the benefit of the doubt with two wins of those six. That means they have to go 8-3 the rest of the way. It's just a lot to ask and I'll side with another subpar season for Big D.
Ezekiel Elliott over 9.5 rushing TDs
Fulghum: Elliott had some awful luck last season converting easy chances into touchdowns; he scored just five times on 12 carries from the 1-yard line in 2020. That kind of inefficiency is almost impossible to replicate. Not only will Elliott have a healthy Prescott to work with this season, but a much healthier offensive line. As long as he can avoid injury -- something he has mostly done for his entire career -- Zeke should reach 10 or more TDs.
Los Angeles Chargers (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -150, No +130
Under 9 wins (+105)
Schatz: This Chargers line seems to be based primarily on three expectations. First, there's no way the Chargers' special teams can be as horrible as they were last year. I agree with that one. Second, there's a strong expectation that Justin Herbert will, like many quarterbacks, take a second-year leap. The problem with that expectation is that most quarterbacks play better in Year 2 in part because they were not good in Year 1. The best dozen quarterbacks of the past 35 years were, on average, a little less efficient as second-year players than as rookies. Third, there's a belief that Brandon Staley will turn around the Chargers' defense like he turned around the Rams' defense in 2020. But the Rams' defense was starting from a better place. Staley took over a Rams defense that was already ninth in DVOA in 2019. He improved that to fourth. He had two of the best defensive players in the league, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Now, Staley is taking over a Chargers defense that ranked 20th last year. He has good players such as Joey Bosa and Derwin James, but they aren't quite Donald and Ramsey. Add a tougher-than-average schedule, and it will be tough for the Chargers to improve enough to go 10-7 and beat this over/under. (Plus, with +105, you're getting a little juice to encourage the bet.)
New Orleans Saints (30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 15-1
Division: 3-1
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +105, No -125
Alvin Kamara under 10.5 rushing TDs (-125)
Spratt: Kamara might be the most talented running back in the NFL, but rushing touchdowns are more about opportunity than skill. Kamara had plenty of the former in 2020, but he also produced a position-leading surplus of 6.9 touchdowns over his expected total (9.1) based on where he took his carries on the field. Mike Clay's opportunity-adjusted touchdown research shows that players tend to regress to their expected totals no matter their talent, so Kamara will likely decline for that reason. Meanwhile, Kamara faces concerns from potential decreases in the Saints' offensive efficiency. With Drew Brees under center, the Saints finished in the top seven in offensive DVOA in all four of Kamara's seasons, and that efficiency tends to generate plays in the red zone.
Jameis Winston to have the most passing yards (+4000)
Kezirian: I am well aware of the Winston criticism, as I participated in it plenty two years ago when he led the NFL in interceptions. But this is a much different situation. First of all, he got to study under Drew Brees and learn an appreciation of checking down to extend drives. Also, that Tampa team was poor defensively and Winston often felt the need to make "hero plays." And let's not forget that Tom Brady struggled with learning Bruce Arians' offense last year, which makes Winston's mistakes in Arians' first year more acceptable. All in all, he's got tons of talent and has the potential to thrive with Sean Payton. Speaking of which, coaches have egos. John Harbaugh ran up the score in prime time to bolster Lamar Jackson's MVP campaign, which would reflect extremely well on his coaching aptitude. Payton would love to stick it to naysayers and have Winston shine. Plus, the former top overall pick led the NFL in passing yards two years ago and can certainly do it with Alvin Kamara and talented wide receivers, particularly if Michael Thomas returns from injury.
Indianapolis Colts (35-1)
Odds to win AFC: 16-1
Division: +145
Over/under: 11
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -210, No +175
Win AFC South (+145), Jonathan Taylor over 1,250.5 rush yards, Carson Wentz Comeback POY (+1000)
Marks: I'm banking on Wentz and his foot injury being in the rearview mirror for the majority of the season. The Colts might have to start the season with Jacob Eason and he will surprise some folks with his monster arm. Eventually Wentz will take over an offense that is better suited for him than any he experienced in Philadelphia. Wentz left the drama in Philly for a much better offensive line, top-five running back in Jonathan Taylor and a more talented WR core. Defensively, the Colts ranked in the top 10 in points allowed, and don't underestimate a good kicker in Rodrigo Blankenship, who should single-handedly win them a game or two.
Arizona Cardinals (40-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +575
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +180, No -220
Rondale Moore over 545.5 receiving yards (DraftKings)
Fulghum: Rondale Moore boasts a rare combination of speed and elusiveness, and I have to think eventually that will translate to Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense. Larry Fitzgerald saw a lot of targets last season at or behind the line of scrimmage, but at his age and with limited physical skills, couldn't do much with them. Moore is the opposite. He will certainly take a couple of short passes and turn them into long gains this season, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him emerge as the second most dangerous weapon on the offense behind DeAndre Hopkins.
Minnesota Vikings (40-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +250
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +110, No -130
No playoffs (-130), Under 9 wins
Marks: Something just doesn't feel right with the Vikings this season. The offense has a lot of talent but has not looked in sync this preseason and I'm not sold on Klint Kubiak as the new OC. The Vikings' defense ranked 29th in points allowed last season and I don't feel they did enough this offseason to improve. The return of Aaron Rodgers to the Packers doesn't help their cause and I'm higher on the Bears than most -- even with Andy Dalton at QB.
Denver Broncos (40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +155, No -180
Von Miller under 9.5 sacks (+105)
Walder: I think Miller is much more likely on the decline than this line suggests. He missed all of last season with an ankle injury and recorded just 8 sacks in 2019. So he's a 32-year-old pass-rusher who hasn't hit double-digit sacks since 2018 and plays on a mediocre team and faces a slate of quarterbacks who don't average high sack rates. All of that screams the under -- as does my projected sack total for Miller at 6.3 -- making this one of my favorite bets of the preseason.
Make playoffs (+155), over 8.5 wins (-130), Javonte Williams over 800.5 rushing yards
Marks: The Broncos have decided to roll with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, and I love the decision. Teddy B. is a completion percentage machine, and with the talent and speed around him, the sky's the limit for Denver's offense. I expect Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams to play a huge factor in the Broncos' offensive explosion. Denver's defense is arguably top 5 in the NFL and will sport one of the best secondaries with the addition of Patrick Surtain II -- along with Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson.
Pittsburgh Steelers (40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 4-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -180
Ben Roethlisberger over 3,958.5 passing yards
Spratt: Roethlisberger was easy to blame for the Steelers' collapse from an 11-0 record to four losses in their last five games. His fall from a 7.8-yard average depth of target in 2018 before elbow surgery to a 6.9-yard rate in 2020 paints the picture of a physical breakdown, something he seemed to confirm in his four-interception loss to the Browns in the playoffs that ended the team's season. But consider that strategy might have played a role in Roethlisberger's conservative play. The Steelers had the worst run-blocking offensive line in 2020 (3.78 adjusted line yards per carry), and that is unlikely to improve dramatically after the team replaced veteran blockers David DeCastro, Maurkice Pouncey, Matt Feiler and Alejandro Villanueva with unproven players. Look for Roethlisberger to throw quick and throw a lot in 2021. He should rack up passing yards as his talented wideouts Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster bolster an undermanned running game with short targets and plenty of yards after the catch.
Chicago Bears (50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +475
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -180
Under 7.5 wins
Kezirian: I'm confused by the optimism spreading in Chicago, particularly with Justin Fields. While everyone is fixated on his dynamic play against second- and third-stringers, I am focusing on his struggles against starters -- including when he nearly got decapitated on a sack. I could be wrong, but he sure doesn't seem ready to succeed as a rookie and lead the Bears to numerous wins. Chicago just has too many limitations. The Packers and Vikings are still the division's elite, and Chicago will have a ton of growing pains, now that Andy Dalton isn't spoiled with his Dallas weapons.
Washington Football Team (50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +260
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +140, No -175
Make playoffs (+140), Win NFC East (+225), Over 8.5 wins, Terry McLaurin over 6.5 rec TD
Marks: I'm all-in on the WFT. I compare Washington to Denver in many aspects. Offensively, Ryan Fitzpatrick gives the WFT the best opportunity to win, as a smart game manager who can get the ball in the hands of a plethora of playmakers (Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown). Defensively, the WFT will be sporting a top-three defense (possibly the best) led by Chase Young and Montez Sweat, and I love the addition of LB Jamin Davis in the draft.
Atlanta Falcons (60-1)
Odds to win NFC: 30-1
Division: 9-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +210, No -260
Mike Davis over 6.5 rushing TDs
Spratt: After six years in the league and almost as many teams, Davis is hardly a household name, even in the NFC South, where he enjoyed a miniature breakout playing in relief of Christian McCaffrey for the rival Panthers. But his 412 career carries still make him the trustworthy choice in an otherwise inexperienced and unproven Falcons backfield. Likely backup Qadree Ollison was a fifth-rounder in 2019 and has just 23 career rushes. D'Onta Foreman was a third-rounder in 2017, but an Achilles injury derailed his career and has limited him to 107 career carries. Caleb Huntley is an undrafted free agent. And Cordarrelle Patterson is a kick returner who has traditionally topped out at a few carries each week. Davis should play a lot. And new head coach Arthur Smith might even see some Derrick Henry in his 221-pound RB1 since Davis finished seventh highest among backs with 150 or more carries with 2.5 yards after contact per attempt, an association that could land the back a bunch of red zone opportunities.
Under 7.5 wins (+110)
Bearman: The Dan Quinn/Thomas Dimitroff era came to a disappointing end in the middle of last season, but that doesn't mean the Falcons are going to improve by four wins. Yes, they were more talented than the 4-12 product from last year, and they underachieved in many different ways, most notably in late-game management; they reasonably should've had 6-7 wins in 2020. New coach Arthur Smith does get to pair Matt Ryan with first-round draft pick Kyle Pitts, but they also lost All-Pro WR Julio Jones, which will impact the offense more than people think. As always with win totals, you must handicap the schedule, and I just don't see eight wins there. In addition to playing the AFC East teams of Miami, New England and Buffalo, the Falcons face San Francisco, Dallas and Washington as well as six games against division rivals expected to be better than them. To hit eight wins, Atlanta will have to go 3-3 in a tough division and then find five wins vs. the two East divisions, Niners and Lions. Maybe they beat the Lions, Giants, Jets and Eagles, but I don't see another win and that's if they win three vs. the NFC South.
Carolina Panthers (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: 11-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +250, No -310
Make playoffs (+250), Over 7.5 wins (+100), Christian McCaffrey most rushing yards (+900), Sam Darnold over 21.5 TD passes
Marks: Don't sleep on this Panthers team just because it plays in the NFC South and Sam Darnold is its QB. McCaffrey returns to lead an offense that has a ton of talent (Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall, Chuba Hubbard, Dan Arnold and Tommy Tremble) not to mention a top-10 offensive line. This scenario is a dream come true for Darnold, especially a huge upgrade in his coaching staff. Matt Rhule will get the most out of his players this season and will make the division more competitive than what most expect.
Las Vegas Raiders (80-1)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: 18-1
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +325, No -425
Chiefs/Raiders to both finish Top 2 in AFC West (+800 at DraftKings)
Walder: I think the Chargers are the most likely team to finish second to the Chiefs, but this line is disrespectful to the Raiders' chances. Las Vegas has finished with a top-10 offense in terms of efficiency in each of the past two seasons. And yes, the Raiders' defense has been -- and likely will be -- miserable. But offense is more consistent from year to year than defense, so if the regression gods look down favorably on that Vegas defense, the Raiders could easily challenge to finish in the top half of the division.
Philadelphia Eagles (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: 5-1
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +280, No -350
Jalen Hurts under 3,650.5 passing yards
Kezirian: This is an average of 215 passing yards per game, assuming he plays all 17 games, and he eclipsed that mark in two of his four starts last year. Hurts did inject some life into a struggling team in 2021 and showed some flashes of quality play. As he continues to start, however, opposing defensive coordinators will learn his strengths, weaknesses and tendencies. Ultimately, they will devise game plans to exploit his limitations and he will lack a countermove. Of course, the running game is a big part of his game so that will inhibit his passing production. In short, I firmly do not believe he is an NFL quarterback and thus he is unlikely to play all 17 games. Joe Flacco could replace him or he could suffer an injury. It's a low passing total but he is incredibly limited.
New York Giants (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: +425
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +230, No -280
Leonard Williams under 7.5 sacks (+120)
Walder: I'm selling on Williams a year after what legitimately was an impressive breakout season. But we know enough to look beyond just last season when we have more information available. And we do. Williams recorded just half a sack the season before. Half a sack! That's it! He's also never been a particularly impressive pass rush win rate guy -- he was below average as a defensive tackle last year -- plus he plays on a bad team that doesn't blitz often. Williams' sack totals look likely to come way down in 2021.
Over 7 wins (-130), Daniel Jones over 3,700 pass yards, Saquon Barkley under 9.5 rush TD (-120)
Marks: There is a lot of concern for the Giants just before the season opener. The offensive line is dealing with injuries, Saquon Barkley's knee is not 100 percent, Kadarius Toney is dealing with issues from contracting COVID and Adoree Jackson begins the season with an ankle injury. The Giants are an organization that NEEDS to win; Giants owner John Mara even told the media "everyone is on the hot seat." The Giants invested a lot to improve their offense this season, eventually players will get healthy, and Daniel Jones has a lot to prove. I'm also fading the Cowboys in this division, which should open the door for the Giants to win at least eight games this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 25-1
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +400, No -550
Joe Burrow over 4,200.5 passing yards (-130)
Fulghum: Burrow was second to only Ben Roethlisberger in pass attempts per game last season (40.4). With the addition of Ja'Marr Chase to a talented group that already includes Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, plus a defense that is likely to get scored on often, Burrow is in the type of environment I like to bank on for voluminous passing production. The offensive line is a concern, for sure, but if Burrow is healthy for all 17 games, he can easily average the 248 yards per game needed to surpass this threshold.
Jacksonville Jaguars (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 8-1
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +300, No -400
Under 6.5 wins (-125)
Bearman: Anyone who watched last year's Jaguars team knows it earned its 1-15 record. The Jags were 28th in the league in offense last year and 32nd in defense. They did add a generational-type QB in Trevor Lawrence, but that's not an automatic fix. They added WR Marvin Jones and safety Rayshawn Jenkins, but should have done better with the most salary cap space of any team this past offseason. The roster was already dealt one big blow, losing rookie RB Travis Etienne Jr. for the season. For rookie head coach Urban Meyer to get this team from one win to seven wins, needed here to hit the over, the Jaguars will need to vastly improve. The schedule is no picnic as Jacksonville gets the NFC West, which should be four losses, and the AFC East, which will likely be at least three more. Then you have the Jaguars' own division, having to face the Titans and Colts twice, both of which have far superior talent. They do get the Texans twice as well as the Bengals, Jets and Falcons, but they would have to go 5-0 there and steal two more along the way. I don't see it happening with a rookie head coach and a rookie QB. If they do, just give Meyer the Coach of the Year award and tip your cap.
New York Jets (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 22-1
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +425, No -600
Under 6 wins (-115), Lowest-scoring team (+650), Zach Wilson most INTs (+900)
Marks: The future is bright for the Jets, but this season will be bleak. There will be a huge learning curve for QB Zach Wilson as he transitions from BYU to the NFL. Wilson will be paying with a subpar offensive line, a middle-of-the-pack WR corps and a lackluster backfield. There will be growing pains in a division that sports three top-15 defenses in the NFL. The Jets will be fortunate to go 1-5 against divisional opponents. The Jets have been hit by the injury bug more than most this preseason, especially on the defensive side of the ball. This team will be lucky to win four games this season.
Detroit Lions (200-1)
Odds to win NFC: 100-1
Division: 25-1
Over/under: 5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +600, No -900
Over 5.0 wins (+120)
Schatz: A lot of fans seem to hold two conflicting viewpoints together in their minds. First, that Matt Patricia was possibly the worst head coach in the NFL over the past couple of years. Second, that the Lions will be even worse under new head coach Dan Campbell. If Patricia was sucking the soul out of the Lions' locker room the way so many people believe, doesn't it stand to reason that Campbell and new coordinators Anthony Lynn and Aaron Glenn should improve the team a little bit? Lynn in particular can focus on installing an offensive scheme and not worry about game management, which was the biggest problem from his head-coaching tenure in Los Angeles. Obviously there's a drop at quarterback going from Stafford to Jared Goff, but statistics from the past three years suggest that drop is not as large as the market believes. We're not talking here about betting on the Lions to go to the playoffs, just betting on them to go 6-11. I like this bet even more if you can get an over at 4.5 wins, but at over 5.0 wins that +120 juice is pretty nice too.
Houston Texans (250-1)
Odds to win AFC: 150-1
Division: 26-1
Over/under: 4
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +700, No -1100
Texans to go 0-17 (25-1)
Fulghum: The Texans very well could be one of the most inept teams in NFL history this season. Not only are they dealing with the Deshaun Watson turmoil, but the front office has been rife with tumult for years under Bob McNair. All you need to know about Houston is that it is a home underdog in Week 1 to a team that went 1-15 a season ago and is breaking in a rookie QB and head coach this season (Jacksonville). Fade the Texans every week and sprinkle a little action on the team going winless.