It's down to two. The Suns and Bucks will battle it out for the NBA championship. There are still plenty of betting opportunities, both for games and in futures. Who will emerge as the NBA champion?
Our analysts -- Doug Kezirian (29-16 regular season, 1-2 play-in, 19-14 playoffs), Joe Fortenbaugh (14-14, 1-1, 18-21), André Snellings (61-42-1, 5-4, 88-72-2), Tyler Fulghum (24-30, 1-1, 26-16) and Anita Marks (24-17, 0-6, 43-38) -- are here to give their best bets for the Finals.
Records through Saturday's Game 5. Odds by Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless noted otherwise.
Tuesday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 6: Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 222)
Bucks lead series 3-2
Fortenbaugh: We've got the highest total of the series for Game 6, thanks to a ridiculous shooting performance from both teams in Saturday's Game 5. The Bucks shot an astounding 57.5 percent from the floor (best of 22 playoff games) and 50 percent from deep (best of 22 playoff games), while the Suns went supersonic and converted 55.2 percent from the floor (second-best of 21 playoff games) and a mind-blowing 68.4 percent from deep (best of 21 playoff games). Do we really see anything like that happening again?
As for props, after hovering in the neighborhood of 28.5 for the majority of this series, Devin Booker's scoring prop has skyrocketed to 31.5 points for Game 6 because he has shot an insane 55.7 percent from the floor over his last two outings for a grand total of 82 points. Maybe he goes nuclear again in Game 6, but this prop is way too high in my opinion given Booker's ability to go frosty from the floor, something we saw on full display during his 10-point performance in Game 3.
Picks: Under 222, Booker under 31.5 points
Fulghum: Finally, a road team earned a victory with the Bucks getting massive performances from their three best players. Regression is coming - even at home. I'm not guaranteeing a Suns victory, but I think Chris Paul and Booker deliver enough to stretch it to a Game 7, or at least make Game 6 a nail-biter.
Picks: Suns +5, Paul double-double (+120)
Snellings: This is the first elimination game of these NBA Finals. In each of the last two games, I could see a likely bounce-back from a key player after a bad game...in this space I predicted Khris Middleton's big Game 4 and Jrue Holiday's big Game 5. Game 6 is different, in that there aren't any obvious bounce-back candidates among the key players on either team. However, I do expect Paul to be on maximum output in a game that's win-or-else. And Jae Crowder, the only Suns player with Finals experience, will need to produce in the pressure cooker. On the Bucks' side, Middleton has consistently played better at home and is typically relied upon to produce in crucial games, so he could be in for good numbers. And while Holiday could face some regression on offense after a monster Game 5, his effort numbers are likely to be maximized.
As for the game itself, I wrote in this space before the series began that if Giannis were healthy I'd predict the Bucks to win in six games. When both teams are playing their best, the Bucks are the (slightly) better team. They have an opportunity to close out, and if they don't then the Suns regain the advantage in a Game 7 in Phoenix. Both teams know this, so I expect the Bucks to play at their best. And their best often involves strong, physical defense. And the stakes are high enough that the shots on both sides could be tight, in addition to regression after a monster offensive effort in Game 5.
Picks: Bucks -5, under 222, Middleton to score 25+ points and Bucks win (+138), Paul over 21.5 points (-125), Crowder over 10.5 points (-125), Middleton over 25.5 points (-115), Holiday over 4.5 rebounds (-160)
Series
Bucks (+160) vs. Suns (-180)
Kezirian: Antetokounmpo's injury is obviously a giant variable and, in my opinion, his health determines who wins this series. I am choosing the Suns, who provide a beautiful flow of basketball with each player complementing one another perfectly. Paul is directing the offense and capitalizes on every opportunity. I believe that will be the difference against a team that fails to make appropriate adjustments and often has players that do not seem to make the most optimal play. I also like that Phoenix has home-court advantage. However, because Giannis looks as though he will return at some point and could be close to 100 percent, I cannot lay -180. Thus, I will try to get cute and take Paul to win the MVP. For the Suns to win, Paul will have to post a solid stat line and he will get deference if a teammate also posts strong stat lines. I also will splash a little for Phoenix to win in exactly six games at +450.
Pick: Paul wins Finals MVP +170
Snellings This time last week, the Bucks were considered the favorite in a potential series against the Suns. Then Antetokounmpo hyperextended his knee, and now the odds have reversed with the Suns as the favorites. Giannis' knee is the elephant in the room; no one knows at this point if he'll be able to play, in how many games, and/or what level we might be able to expect from him. It makes this a difficult series to predict.
Here's what we know: the Bucks have a significant size advantage, whether Giannis plays or not. They start two 7-footers, with P.J. Tucker (who used to regularly play power forward or center for the Rockets) starting on the wing and defending the opponent's best scorer. Khris Middleton is starting at shooting guard at 6-foot-8, and Jrue Holiday is a 6-foot-3 tank at point guard who regularly defends opposing wings. The Suns have Deandre Ayton in the paint, but otherwise start combo forwards in addition to the relatively slighter backcourt of Booker and Paul. They're not undersized, but against the Bucks they are. And since Giannis' injury, the Bucks have changed their style to lean on their strength, dominating in the paint with Holiday penetrating and the big men controlling the action. If the Bucks play that way in the Finals, they'll be formidable, even without Giannis. But if they play that way and Giannis is anywhere near himself, the Bucks have the advantage.
On the other side, the Suns are more balanced and their elite backcourt gives them a strong chance. According to Second Spectrum, Paul (3,044 picks used, fourth in the NBA) and Booker (1,611 picks used, 18th in the NBA) both utilize a lot of on-ball picks as the ball-handler, and when they do they create offense at a similar level as Trae Young in terms of points scored per chance or direct pick. We just saw Young work the Bucks using picks, as their preference to drop big men (particularly Brook Lopez) to the paint on picks left Holiday on an island. Paul and Booker could pose a huge challenge, and it'll be up to the Bucks to show they can slow it down.
Ultimately, if I knew Giannis was going to play at a high level starting from Game 1 I'd pick the Bucks in six. If I knew that Giannis wasn't going to play at all, or that he'd be limited the entire series, I'd pick the Suns in six. Overall, I'll assume that Giannis comes back and plays well at some point in the series and pick the Bucks in seven. But you've seen my thought process, so if you're skeptical of the prospect that Giannis can return at a high level in the next week, adjust your bets accordingly. On the other hand, if you're feeling aggressive that Giannis will be ready to go by Game 1, you could consider taking the Bucks, even against a handicap.
Series Bucks to win (+175), Bucks +1.5 games (-145), Bucks -1.5 (+270)
Saturday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 5: Bucks 123, Suns 119
Bucks lead series 3-2
Fortenbaugh: We haven't seen a cheaper price on a Suns home playoff contest since Game 2 of Phoenix's first-round series against the Lakers. Taking a look at Game 4, the Suns were absolutely abysmal with a minus-12 turnover differential as well as 19 fewer field goal attempts and 10 fewer free throw attempts than the Bucks. Yet despite all those shortcomings, the Suns were still leading the game with under three minutes to play. The Arizona home crowd will be the difference in this one.
Every game in this series has featured 220 or more points except Game 4. So what happened? For starters, Milwaukee and Phoenix combined to shoot a horrific 26.9% from 3-point range after shooting 38% from deep through the first three encounters in the series. Second, the Suns attempted just 78 field goals. In 92 total games played this season, Phoenix has attempted fewer than 78 shots just seven times. Suns head coach Monty Williams and point guard Chris Paul keep reiterating the importance of pushing the pace against Milwaukee, which helps our over bet as well.
Pick: Suns -4, over 218
Kezirian: Suspicions of Paul's hand injury sure look legitimate, as the point guard has struggled the past couple of games. There's no reason to think that discontinues, especially if he finds himself being guarded by Jrue Holiday. Regardless, given Paul's usage, the turnovers are mounting (four-plus in three straight games). I am wagering on him to have a solid game but not necessarily a great one. Twenty-one points with three turnovers is still more than acceptable.
Pick: Paul under 21.5 points (-120), over 2.5 turnovers (-130)
Snellings: The Finals return to Phoenix on Saturday, where the Suns won Games 1 and 2 by double figures. Paul was outstanding in those two games, particularly Game 1, before struggling mightily on the road in the Suns' two losses. While there are some questions about just how healthy Paul is right now, I expect him to bounce back from his 15 total turnovers in his last three games with a much more CP3-type effort in Game 5. This means low turnovers, efficient shooting and getting his teammates involved. Devin Booker had his bounce-back effort with a monster Game 4 after struggling the game before, and he is likely to be aggressive as well. This would bode well for Deandre Ayton, who works well off Paul and the space created by the defensive attention Booker receives. Mikal Bridges is the role player most likely to bounce back at home, with two poor road outings after his stellar 27 points in Game 2.
On the Bucks' side, the one constant tends to be Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, Giannis has shown a willingness to step back his own scoring game if his teammates, particularly Khris Middleton, have it going on a given night. This was the case in Game 4, when Middleton took over down the stretch and dropped 40 points. Giannis "only" notched 48 combined points, rebounds and blocks in that game after averaging 59 in the previous two games. On the road, in a hostile environment, I look for Giannis to revert to his bigger production in Game 5.
Holiday is also coming off a game where he struggled on offense, and I expect him to be more aggressive in creating team offense on Saturday. Among the role players, P.J. Tucker was shut out of the scoring column after steadily going over in points and treys in the first three games. I look for him to bounce back, with the game back on his "old" home court from his Suns days.
As for the game itself, by this far into the series, the home-court advantage should be starting to dissipate. These teams have a feel for exactly how the other plays, and now it's about execution. The Suns are itching to get back in the win column, and they just may, but I expect it to be a close game either way, with the Bucks also having a legit shot to win. And Game 4 was the only game this series when less than 220 combined points were scored, so if Paul is executing, the offenses should be back on display for Game 5.
Pick: Bucks +4, over 218, Paul over 21.5 points (-110), Ayton over 15.5 points (-125), Giannis over 52.5 PAR (-115), Holiday over 31.5 PAR (-125), Bridges over 10.5 points (-115), Tucker over 4.5 points (-125), Tucker over 0.5 made 3-pointers (-220)
Marks: I wrote in Wednesday's column that it seems like the Bucks have found the secret sauce to contest the Suns. Holiday is playing excellent defense, and I expect him to create issues for Paul again tonight. The loss of Dario Saric creates a huge problem for the Suns and their lack of depth in the paint. Ayton cannot afford to get into foul trouble. I'm on the under due to the fact that both Middleton's and Holiday's shooting percentages are 10% less on the road than at home. Booker is 9-of-30 from downtown this series, his wheelhouse is the midrange jumper -- and this is where he will thrive -- so why stray? Cam Johnson is averaging 30 minutes a game with Saric out and is averaging a combined 14 points/rebounds in this series; he is also averaging two 3-pointers a game. Pat Connaughton is a role player off the bench who is averaging 30 minutes a game, shooting 50% from behind the arc and hitting three 3-pointers a game.
Pick: Bucks +4, Under 219, Paul under 29.5 points/rebounds, Booker under 2.5 3s, Johnson over 12.5 points/rebounds, over 1.5 3s (-125), Connaughton over 1.5 3s
Wednesday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 4: Bucks 109, Suns 103
Series tied 2-2
Fortenbaugh: Game 3 featured an interesting discrepancy in free throws, as Milwaukee made 26 trips to the charity stripe (third-most in 20 playoff games) while Phoenix attempted just 16 free throws (sixth-fewest of 19 playoff games). I'm not floating a conspiracy theory, but I am suggesting that we won't see a repeat of those statistics in Game 4. Further, Phoenix's 3-point shooting in Game 3 checked-in at an abysmal 29 percent, good for the team's fourth-worst shooting effort in 19 postseason appearances. I expect some positive regression on that front, especially when it comes to Devin Booker (3-for-14 from the field, 1-for-7 from deep). Remember, between the regular season and postseason, the Suns are an impressive 18-6 straight up and 17-7 against the spread this season.
For props, this is a great price for CP3, considering he dropped 32 points in Game 1 and 23 points in Game 2. But a Game 3 thud that featured only 14 field-goal attempts and a 1-for-4 effort from deep resulted in just 19 points. As a result, the bookmakers have adjusted Chris Paul's points prop south, offering us a quality opportunity to bet the over. Take note that those 14 field-goal attempts in Game 3 were CP3's fewest since Game 2 of the Denver series, and his 33 minutes and 40 seconds played were his fewest since, you guessed it, Game 2 of the Denver series. Look for a classic bounce-back effort Wednesday night.
Picks: Suns +4, Paul over 21.5 points
Snellings: The blowout nature of how Game 3 ended obscured the fact that the Suns played very well early in the game before Deandre Ayton got into foul trouble. His presence on the court is vital to the Suns, because he's their only big man capable of slowing the Bucks in the paint. It should also be noted that Booker had one of his worst games of the playoffs, so off that, his coach sat him the entire fourth quarter. He should definitely bounce back with a vengeance. I'm expecting the Suns to be much more competitive in Game 4, with many more points scored.
With that said, the Bucks should still be favored to win Game 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at an all-time level, and as long as the Bucks keep attacking the paint they are the stronger team. Plus, we have yet to have a classic microwave game from Khris Middleton, and he's due. When Middleton scores at volume and efficiency, the Bucks are impossible to beat. Also, P.J. Tucker keeps quietly knocking down a 3-pointer a game and should continue in that vein.
Picks: Bucks -4, over 220.5, Tucker over 5.5 points (-145), Middleton over 24.5 points (-125), Booker over 27.5 points (-125), Jrue Holiday over 4.5 rebounds (-160), Tucker over 0.5 made 3-pointers (-230), Middleton over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-130)
Kezirian: These teams have yet to hit the under in all five meetings, including the regular season, but I think we finally get the under here. In Game 3, with the Suns finally coming back to earth with their shooting, the game landed at 220. A combined 69 points in the third quarter skewed the result, which only occurred because of Ayton's foul trouble that forced Phoenix into a small lineup and higher pace. As long as the big man can avoid foul trouble and continue his respectable defense on Giannis, we should get that under.
Pick: Under 220.5
Fulghum: Paul averaged 27.5 points over the first two games of this series on 19.5 field-goals per game. In the Game 3 loss, CP3 scored 19 but only played 33 minutes and took just 14 shots. With the expectation that Game 4 will be a little more competitive, "The Point Gawd" should get both the minutes and opportunity to bounce back with a point prop over.
Pick: Paul over 21.5 points
Marks: The Bucks got back on track in Game 3, and possibly found the winning formula against the Suns. Giannis and crew played big in the paint and got Ayton into foul trouble in the second half. Milwaukee was able to force him out of the game, only playing 24 minutes, but he still put up 18 points and 9 rebounds. Ayton will have to play smart and avoid foul trouble to post his 40 minute double-double average. Holiday is playing excellent defense against Booker, who is 1 of 12 when guarded by Jrue, and I see much of the same tonight. Cam Johnson has been great off the bench this postseason and played 30 minutes in game 3. His stroke from downtown will be needed, considering Booker is struggling. The Suns defensively are going to need as much man power under the rim, which will open up the perimeter for Holiday and Pat Connaughton, they should be draining 3s all night long while feeding off their fans energy.
Pick: Ayton over 28.5 points/reb (-125), Booker under 27.5 points, under 2.5 3's (-135), Johnson over 12.5 points/reb, over 1.5 3's (+100), Holiday over 2.5 3's (-130) Giannis & Holiday both double-doubles (+190 DK), Connaughton over 1.5 3's
Tuesday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 1: Suns 118, Bucks 105
Fulghum: This NBA postseason has been an absolute war of attrition...and nobody has survived more capably than the Suns. The favorite in Game 1 of the Finals is 14-1 outright and 13-2 ATS over the last 15 postseasons, and confidence should only increase on the Phoenix side given Giannis Antetokounmpo's tenuous health situation.
Milwaukee has always been a team that prefers to defend the rim rather than the 3-point line. Only the Timberwolves allowed a higher hit rate from deep this season than the Bucks.
Pick: Suns -5.5, Chris Paul over 1.5 made 3-pointers
Fortenbaugh: If there's a team that knows how to fire from the gates in Game 1 of a playoff series, it's Devin Booker and the Suns. So far this postseason, Phoenix is a sterling 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in Game 1s, with a nine-point win over LeBron James and the Lakers, a 17-point win over MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets and a six-point win over Paul George and the Clippers. The Bucks have been just the opposite, going 1-2 straight up and 0-3 against the spread in Game 1s entering the NBA Finals. Throw in the rest, health and home-court advantages enjoyed by Phoenix and I see the Suns cruising to a 1-0 series lead.
Pick: Suns -5.5
Thursday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 2: Suns 118, Bucks 108
Suns lead series 2-0
Fortenbaugh: The Game 1 total closed at 219.5 before both teams combined to put 223 points on the board. With an adjustment north to 221 for Game 2, you'll find me on the under in this situation. In the six Game 2s played by both Milwaukee and Phoenix this postseason, only one has gone over the closing total (Game 2 of the Bucks-Heat series). Additionally, take note that the pace has dropped in all three Game 2s played by the Bucks. I don't see Milwaukee shooting 44.4 percent from deep again like they did in Game 1, and I don't expect Phoenix to shoot 25-of-26 from the free throw line in Game 2 like they did in Game 1. Translation: regression is on the horizon.
For props, I drilled the over on 11.5 rebounds for Deandre Ayton in Game 1 on Tuesday's edition of "Daily Wager," and after watching him clean up the glass to the tune of 19 boards in 38 minutes of action, I thought for sure a major pricing adjustment was coming. Instead, the bookmakers moved the prop from 11.5 to 12.5, which means I'm coming back for more. Ayton is averaging 12.1 rebounds per game this postseason and should continue to dominate the glass while CP3 and Devin Booker handle the bulk of the scoring duties.
Pick: Under 221, Ayton over 12.5 rebounds (-105)
Kezirian: Bettors know to avoid fixating on what they last saw, but I am ignoring those warning signs and backing Phoenix. In Game 1, the Suns tried to isolate Brook Lopez in the pick-and-roll and then turned to Pat Connaughton when Lopez was on the bench. Mike Budenholzer said he plans to focus his defensive game plan on stopping Chris Paul on ball screens but that is much easier said than done. I give Giannis Antetokounmpo tons of credit for returning from injury and playing relatively well, but he's not his typical dominant force. The Suns devised an excellent defense to build a wall without overcommitting too much. Additionally, Paul dominates possessions with his awareness and execution, exploiting every single advantage. He's the maestro, and thus I see him continuing to lead Phoenix to the franchise's first NBA title.
Pick: Suns -5.5, Paul wins MVP (-140)
Fulghum: For the sake of full disclosure, I like the Suns side and the under in Game 2, but a couple of props that stand out to me are unders in the Phoenix backcourt. The Point God has played 15 games this postseason and has posted three or more turnovers just twice. In Game 1 against Milwaukee, he yielded just two turnovers.
Booker, with his likely still tender nose, has gone under his rebounding prop in five of his last six games. Booker likely doesn't want to bang with bodies trying to grab rebounds, whether the mask is on or not. Plus, guys like Ayton and Giannis should soak up most of the rebounds anyway. The two combined for 36 in Game 1, while Booker pulled down just two boards.
Pick: Paul under 2.5 turnovers, Booker under 5.5 rebounds
Snellings: Antetokounmpo's 11th-hour return changed the face of Game 1 and the series as a whole. Even though the Suns won convincingly, there is the legitimate prospect that Giannis and the Bucks could be operating at full capacity as soon as Thursday. This opens up possibilities, particularly in player props, where Giannis' presence absorbs the statistical expectations and makes some other player props more viable.
For example, the Suns aren't particularly adept at keeping large centers from producing. Last round, Ivica Zubac averaged 14.0 points on 57.6% shooting in the last three games of the series that he started. Lopez should be able to have his way in the paint, even with attenuated opportunities due to Giannis' return. He scored 17 points in only 22:50 of the opener, and I like him as a scorer, even in limited minutes.
Interestingly, Lopez's limited minutes are likely because the Bucks will be playing more small ball, which means more P.J. Tucker at the 4 with Giannis at the 5. Tucker is also a battle-hardened veteran that used to play for the Suns and therefore is comfortable in either arena. When he's on the court, pretty much his only shot is the corner trey. In his last 11 games, Tucker is averaging 1.2 3s per game. With all of the factors, I wouldn't be surprised if that increases in the Finals.
Jrue Holiday's scoring goes way down next to Giannis, in part because they operate in similar spheres. Without a consistent jumper, both like to create off the dribble, driving into the paint. Holiday averaged 26 PPG in the two games Giannis sat but has only scored more than 19.5 points in four of the 16 games he's played next to Giannis this postseason. His rebounds could increase, though, in small-ball lineups. And rounding out the small-ball implications, look for Giannis to dominate the boards even more than usual this series.
On the Suns' side, the Bucks have trouble defending the on-ball pick, and both Paul and Booker are among the best and most frequent utilizers of this play. This bodes well for both players' scoring and assist numbers. It also bodes extremely well for Ayton, who would be the recipient of many of those pick-and-roll finishes. Ayton's monster Game 1 is unlikely to be a one-off. Similar to how Trae Young maximized Clint Capela as a finisher, look for Paul and Booker to do the same thing with Ayton. And, as Joe pointed out, Ayton is also a rebound vacuum.
Pick: Tucker over 0.5 made 3-pointers (-230), Giannis over 11.5 rebounds (-125), Paul over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-190), Ayton double-double (-320)
Marks: I did not expect Giannis to play as well as he did in Game 1, and I'm uncertain how his knee will respond to his having played 35 minutes, therefore I'm staying away from all Bucks prop bets. On the other hand, I love what I saw from the Suns in Game 1 and I'm doubling down on most options here.
Cameron Johnson contracted food poisoning after eating a bagel with everything on it but the kitchen sink and ended up missing the final game against the Clippers. Well, Cam is now rested and ready to roll, just like we saw on Tuesday. He played 21 minutes, put up 10 points, was 2-for-4 from downtown and has averaged four rebounds over his last five games. I expect much of the same Thursday.
The Bucks have no answer for Ayton, whether Giannis is 100 percent or not, and he should dominate this series throughout. Based on postgame comments from the Bucks, it's evident their defensive focus will be on Paul in Game 2 as they try to take away his pick-and-roll. I say pick your poison.
I also like Booker (who put up 27 points in Game 1) to score at least 30 Thursday. The Suns are a matchup nightmare for the Bucks, who will be lucky to win even one game. The Suns will close it out in Milwaukee.
Pick: Suns win series 4-1 (+250), Johnson over 9.5 points + rebounds (-120), Johnson over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120), Booker 30 points and Suns win (+140)
Sunday's NBA Finals best bets
Game 3: Bucks 120, Suns 100
Suns lead series 2-1
Kezirian: The Bucks have not demonstrated a whole lot to instill confidence in supporting a wager on them, but playoff history and trends certainly set up for a good Milwaukee performance. Teams trailing 2-0 in a series and returning home typically start well due to desperation and a bit of apathy by the team that already has two wins. I do not trust Milwaukee to play 48 quality minutes, but I will back them in the first quarter, although oddsmakers are forcing us to pay a tax. I still think it's the right play. Additionally, in this space, I have already supported two Chris Paul wagers for Finals MVP. His odds now sit at -150. I still think it's a good move, if you have yet to dive in, but I am going to avoid having three picks in this space riding on it. But I still like the play.
Pick: Bucks first quarter -2 (-125)
Marks: This is a must win game for the Bucks. I believe this is the one game Milwaukee wins in this series, considering the Bucks will be back at home, feeling the gravity of this game and feeding off their fans. The key for the Bucks is getting to the free throw line, forcing the Suns into foul trouble and playing smarter basketball. Giannis Antetokounmpo will get his double-double via points and rebounds, but to win, Jrue Holiday will need to step up. I anticipate the Bucks to focus on getting Holiday open looks and finding ways to get him more active. Defensively, the Bucks should continue to try and limit Paul, considering he makes this Suns team shine. Regardless of location, Cameron Johnson will continue to take four shots from downtown, and at plus money I like him hitting 50%.
Pick: Over 222 , Giannis double-double & Bucks win (-141 at DraftKings), Holiday over 19.5 points (-100), Johnson over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+100)
Snellings: As Doug alluded to, the Bucks have proven to be a difficult team to depend on during these playoffs. However, it just seems aligned to me for them to have a big Game 3. They are down 2-0, backs against the wall, but more than that...they quietly didn't play all that bad as a team even in their two losses in Phoenix. Giannis was amazing, especially considering he was returning unexpectedly quickly from a scary-looking knee injury, and if the Suns hadn't been playing at such an A+ level, there's a reasonable chance the Bucks could have stolen one of those two games, even with both Khris Middleton and Holiday shooting horribly. Now, back in Milwaukee, I'd expect Giannis' two lieutenants to find their shots and for the role players to take advantage of home cooking to start knocking down their looks as well. Conversely, the Suns' players seem unlikely to be quite as scorching on the road as they were in Phoenix.
I'd also take a look at some of the futures props, because I think the Bucks are still very much in this series and the odds are as stacked against them as they're likely to be moving forward. The Bucks team is +375 to win, and they're -130 even with a +2.5 series handicap. Moreover, I think there is opportunity in the Finals MVP race. Giannis is +425 to win, even though he's averaging 31.0 points, 14.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists in his first two games off injury. If the Bucks win their two home games, he'd likely move a lot closer to even money in the odds. Similarly, there's a strong likelihood that if the Bucks get back in the series, Middleton would average closer to the 32 PPG he's put up in the Bucks' last three wins than the 11 he scored last game. If so, he'd at least get some MVP consideration and worth a flyer, given his current 60-1 odds. Similar story with Holiday, who's at least worth a thought at 125-1 MVP odds. And on the Suns' side, Deandre Ayton is at 20-1 for MVP despite averaging 16 PPG and 15 RPG on 60 FG% thus far in the Finals.
Pick: Bucks -3.5, P.J. Tucker over 4.5 points (-145), Middleton over 25.5 points (-110), Holiday over 7.5 assists (-145), Tucker over 0.5 made 3-pointers (-230)