Super Bowl LV is upon us. The Chiefs and Buccaneers are the last teams standing, and ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2 last week, 23-36-3 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-1, 38-59-1), Anita Marks (7-14, 128-144-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 16-20), Mike Clay (4-0, 29-18-1), Tyler Fulghum (3-3, 70-96-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (0-1, 35-26), Seth Walder (1-2, 54-33) of ESPN Analytics and Aaron Schatz (0-2, 44-53-2) of Football Outsiders are here to tell us what they like for the biggest betting day of the year.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
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Super Bowl LV best bets
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
History of the spread
Underdogs have covered 12 of the last 20 Super Bowls, but favorites hold a 27-25-2 edge overall. The favored Patriots trailed 28-3 in Super Bowl LI but forced OT and then won -- and covered the 3-point spread -- on James White's TD on the first possession.
Chiefs -3
Kezirian: It's easy to make a case for each team, so I am excited to watch, and hopefully the Super Bowl will deliver. I am siding with the Chiefs because the offense is not something I want to fade. Obviously, the offensive line injuries concern me. The Tampa defense is also potent, ranking in the top five in both rush and pass defense. But, ultimately, if the Chiefs play remotely close to their best version, no one can hang with them. Tom Brady is a force, but I will take the Chiefs.
Johnson: My main concern for the Bucs and Brady is the pressure that Kansas City was able to generate rushing four against the Bills. Josh Allen was able to evade the pressure and buy time, but even despite that, the coverage for the Chiefs was pristine and Allen wasn't able to make many plays. Brady's lack of mobility could wind up being a major issue, and if the counter is dump-offs and check-downs over and over, I imagine Kansas City will absolutely live with that.
My second concern for Tampa Bay is the injuries to their safeties and the fact that they are going up against a Patrick Mahomes-led Andy Reid offense. I don't envision enough stops for the Bucs ultimately, and I think it's underpriced at a flat -3.
Fortenbaugh: All the concerns we had about Kansas City at the end of the regular season were answered during the AFC Championship Game when the Chiefs turned a 9-0 deficit into a 21-9 lead in roughly 10 minutes. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the NFL in blitz rate, but nobody can dissect and defeat the blitz quite like Mahomes.
Bearman: I'll preface this by saying I don't like betting against the GOAT. He has proved time and time again that once you think he is done, he turns around and wins another. A seventh Super Bowl title would be the icing on a cake that doesn't even need icing for TB12 and his legacy. That being said, this is arguably the top opponent Brady has faced in the big game. You have to go back to his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams to find the only other time in the 10 appearances in which he was an underdog. And for good reason. The defending champion Chiefs were my pick back in August (real wise, I know), and I see no reason to back away from it now. The combination of an explosive offense and a good secondary that can slow down the Bucs WRs (Clay notes below that they are among the best at slowing elite WRs) should lead to the game's first repeat since Brady's Patriots won back-to-back following 2003-04 seasons. I just don't see the Bucs being able to keep up score for score in this one.
The Chiefs have looked vulnerable at times, including during a stretch of one cover over nine games, but they still finished 14-2 with the top seed in the AFC. I am not too worried about the cover, because if they win, I believe they cover. The spread has not come into play in the last 11 championship games, with winners being 46-6-2 ATS overall. If you like the Chiefs, lay the 3, especially before it possibly moves to 3.5. Yes, the OL injuries area a concern for KC, but so are the ones in the Bucs secondary. At the end of the day, I am siding with Mahomes beating the Bucs secondary over the Bucs getting to Mahomes.
Schatz: Most of my picks in this column over the course of the season have been based on top-line numbers. But to pick the Super Bowl, I'm going a bit further down. I've come around to the "Kansas City flip the switch" theory that suggests the Chiefs coasted whenever they had a big lead during the regular season. That depressed their numbers and led to the Chiefs finishing the regular season just sixth in DVOA (fifth without Week 17), while Tampa Bay, despite more losses, was more impressive in the play-by-play breakdown and ranked second. The question is: how much does Kansas City's performance defending those big late leads mean?
The Chiefs ranked 21st on offense with a lead of more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter and 20th on defense. The Bucs were very good on both sides of the ball in those same situations. Take out those situations, and the Chiefs were the better team this season -- it's narrow, but they have the edge. And if we look at the AFC Championship Game and the divisional round win over Cleveland before Mahomes got hurt, the Chiefs put up their two best total performances of the year -- strong on defense and spectacular on offense. It's enough for me to lean toward the Chiefs. If you get a line of 3.5 points, I would lean toward the Bucs, but at 3 I'm picking Kansas City.
Marks: The Buccaneers have reached the Super Bowl with some smoke and mirrors. Tampa's defense gave up over 350 total yards to Washington and its third-string quarterback, needed four turnovers from the Saints to advance to take on Green Bay, and beat the Packers in spite of three second-half interceptions from Brady. Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will have to pick his poison defending either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, because you cannot do both.
On the other side, the Chiefs' defense is underrated. Their interior rush from Chris Jones and Frank Clark with be a force. That, along with a solid secondary that does not allow many explosive plays, won't allow the Buccaneers to keep pace with Mahomes and his explosive offense. I also like the Chiefs -2.5 in the first half (-110) and their team total over 29.5 (-120).
Walder: I'll be honest; I'm about to ignore our model. FPI likes the Bucs against the spread. It makes the Chiefs just a 0.7-point favorite (we consider it a neutral-site game, but Tampa gets an advantage from lack of travel), and FPI+, our translation of the model to the betting market, makes the Bucs +3 a solid buy.
There's a pretty important caveat: the Chiefs' Week 17 game, which they did not play to win, hurt their rating. Kansas City dropped 0.8 points that week in FPI's rating. But even if we added a full 0.8 points back into the Chiefs' rating (an oversimplification), FPI would still lean toward the Bucs getting a field goal.
But I just can't shake that the most predictable way to win a football game is by having the best passing game. While the two teams' overall passing game numbers aren't that different, when it's a clear passing situation -- third/fourth down and 5-plus yards to go, outside of garbage time -- the Chiefs were dramatically better. And I can't help but wonder if the Chiefs might just eschew the ground game and lean on Mahomes even more -- as they should -- and unlock an even higher ceiling for their offense.
Buccaneers +3
Clay: The Buccaneers have scored three-plus touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. They're averaging 33 points and allowing 22 during that span. That's compared to a 29-22 average score for the Chiefs during their past 10 games (excluding Week 17). The Buccaneers' offense has arguably been better than the Chiefs' unit as of late, and their defense has been much better all season (fifth in DVOA, compared to 22nd for the Chiefs). Tampa Bay has the arsenal to get the job done...as long as it can avoid the first-quarter defensive meltdown like the one in the Week 12 meeting. My model disagrees with the books/public and actually has the Buccaneers favored 30-27.
History of the over/under
There have been 26 overs, 26 unders and one push in Super Bowl history (there was no total in Super Bowl I). In Super Bowl XXXIII, aided by Tim Dwight's TD kickoff return, 30 points went up in the fourth quarter to crush an under that was sitting pretty.
Over 56.5 (-110)
Fulghum: There is just no way I have the stomach to wager the under in a game quarterbacked by Brady and Mahomes. That's not a sweat I have the stomach for in the fourth quarter. These teams combined for 963 yards of offense when they matched up in Week 12. Despite all that production, the scoreboard rang up just 51 points. If the offenses are that efficient again on Sunday, I imagine we see 60-plus points. Also give me the Chiefs team total over 29.5 (-120) and the Bucs team total over 27.5 (+110).
Game props
No score in first 5 minutes of the game (-135)
Bearman: We have all seen and heard the stat by now: Brady has led his nine previous Super Bowl teams to three total first-quarter points. Good note, but I wouldn't use that as a barometer, as the Buccaneers are a different team with different players, coaches and game plans. It's a nice stat, but it's not the reason I am laying -135 predicting there will be no score the first 5 minutes. For the season, the Chiefs have two touchdowns and two field goals in the first 5 minutes of their 18 games (22.2% of games) and the Bucs have six scores (five TDs, one FG) in their 19 games (31.5%). Combined, the two teams have averaged a score in the first 5 minutes less than 30% of the time. At -135, it's a buy-low deal before even factoring in Super Bowl nerves, being off for two weeks and the usual feel-out portion of the first 5 minutes.
First score history
The first score of the Super Bowl has been a TD 26 times, a FG 25 times and a safety -- with the big payout -- three times, including Super Bowl XLVIII when the first play from scrimmage was snapped over Peyton Manning's head 12 seconds into the game.
Game will be tied at some point after 0-0 (-130)
Kezirian: The point spread suggests we will have a close game, and I agree with that sentiment. The Chiefs offense is too strong and the defense is too leaky for a blowout. The issue is whether the game will be tied beyond 0-0. I believe so. Both coaches are comfortable trusting their quarterback on fourth down, so I feel like field goals will be limited. Also, once a team has the lead, the live betting drive props for the team with the ball reaches higher than -150 often, depending on the down and distance. I can envision several scenarios with that potential.
Chiefs -0.5 after first quarter (+105)
Schatz: Believe it or not, Brady has been in the Super Bowl nine times and has a grand total of three points in the first quarter. Will he get his first first-quarter Super Bowl touchdown this year? Even if he does, I think Kansas City has a better chance to be ahead after 15 minutes. Yes, the Chiefs' M.O. in last year's postseason was to fall behind early, but they've taken a lot of early leads throughout the 2020 season. Kansas City ranks second in offensive DVOA in the first quarter of games. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in offensive DVOA in the first quarter -- and a surprising 26th in defense. The Bucs' defense this year has generally gotten better as games have gone along.
Chiefs margin 7-12 (+450), Bucs margin 1-6 (+340), Chiefs -7.5 (+170)
Bearman: This strategy worked for me last year when KC rallied to beat San Francisco and scored a late TD to win by 11, so let's roll it back. I see this game working one of two ways: either (1) the Chiefs flex their offensive muscle and the Bucs won't be able to keep up, ending in a 38-27 game or (2) the Bucs will keep it close and end with some more Brady magic and pull out a squeaker as Brady-led teams have done in five of his six Super Bowl wins (a 31-28 win). I've taken the Chiefs -3 already, so I am siding with a Chiefs 7-12 point win for 4.5 times my money with the bonus -7.5 thrown on top. If it goes the other way, +340 isn't a bad price for a close Bucs win.
First turnover will be an interception (-160)
Bearman: Our Stats and Information department tells us that since 1995, 25 of the 26 Super Bowls have had at least one turnover, and in those 25 Super Bowls, the first turnover was an interception 21 times (84%). The -160 odds for an interception to be the first turnover is an implied probability of 61.5%, giving us a pretty sizable edge here. You can expand it past just the first turnover and see that 69% of all Super Bowl turnovers dating back to 1994 are interceptions as well. The Bucs and Chiefs defenses recorded 15 and 16 interceptions, respectively, both in the top seven for most in the league. Odds are the pick would come from Brady, as Mahomes had the second-lowest interception percentage in the league, behind only Aaron Rodgers. Sprinkling a little on the Bucs to throw the first pick at -140 is also in play here.
Buccaneers more rushing yards than Chiefs (PK, -110)
Johnson: Overall, I project Tampa Bay to rush for more yards over 56% of the time. So at -110, this is a good enough price for me. My projections call for the Buccanneers to rush for more attempts on average and slightly more yards per carry. The reason their run game projects to be more efficient is the fact that Tampa Bay's rush defense is one of the best in the NFL. They ranked top 10 in opponent yards per rush, success rate and EPA. The Kansas City rush defense, on the other hand, ranks bottom 10 in the league in all three of those metrics. Considering Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are likely both out on the offensive line, I anticipate Reid to utilize Mahomes and his two most dangerous weapons, Kelce and Hill, regularly. There really isn't any reason for the Chiefs to try and run against this Bucs defense until they are running clock late in the game with a lead. Everything points to Tampa for this prop.
Under 7.5 different players with a rush attempt (+140)
Kezirian: This will be an annoying sweat and likely inhibit my enjoyment, but i am still playing it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette will all have a rushing attempt. Both starting quarterbacks will as well, although there is a chance Brady does not. He had four games this season without one. Nonetheless, let's assume six different ball-carriers. That leaves two others for this bet to lose. We are familiar with Reid's tendency to use one of his speedsters in the backfield. Could we see two KC guys or one from each team? Sure. The Bucs even iced the NFC Championship with a Chris Godwin rush. But sometimes the coaches will have a wideout throw or use one on a pop-pass, which achieves the same misdirection but the play is recorded as a reception. I am going to take my chances with a conventional game and root against Le'Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy getting opportunities.
Longest made FG under 54.5 yards (-340)
Kezirian: This is a fairly high money line, so I cannot blame anyone for avoiding this. However, I think the real juice should be about -550 or -600. As I mentioned earlier, I do not expect many field goals from Tampa Bay. The Bills just illustrated why kicking field goals is not a successful blueprint to defeat the Chiefs, and Bruce Arians just demonstrated that he trusts Brady and the offense on fourth down. Additionally, Ryan Succop is fairly average. In 12 seasons, he is 21 of 39 on kicks beyond 50 yards, and his career-long is 54 yards. That includes connecting on just two of five this year. In terms of losing this prop, Harrison Butker is likely to be my villain. Including the playoffs, he is 14 of 20 over four years on kicks of 50-plus yards. This year, he made kicks of 55 and 58 yards.
The 55-yarder came after KC reached the 37-yard line against Carolina and Mahomes subsequently threw three straight incompletions. The 58-yard bomb came in an overtime win over the Chargers. The Chiefs actually reached the 35-yard line on its third down play but then committed a penalty on its first field-goal attempt, moving them back five yards. These details are important because I have extreme confidence in Kansas City's offense. So if the Chiefs are in a fourth-and-short or -medium situation, Reid will probably leave his offense on the field. In situations where KC must play for a field goal, such as near the end of a half or a third down with 15 yards to go, I feel the Chiefs can reach a more comfortable distance for their kicker. So many stars need to be perfectly aligned for a made field goal of 55-plus yards, especially when the prop for made kicks is 3.5 and it's an outdoor stadium that could have some elements.
Chiefs over 2.0 sacks (+120)
Marks: There are three defensive coaches on the Chiefs' staff (DC Steve Spagnuolo, DB coach Dave Merritt and DB/CB coach Sam Madison) that were on the Giants staff when they beat Brady and the Patriots in the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls. All three know that if you don't get to Brady, you don't win. Jones has 7.5 sacks on the season, and Clark had two sacks against the Bills. Expect both to get to Brady through the interior of Tampa's offensive line.
Player props
Brady over 2.5 pass TDs (+140)
Clay: The last time the Buccaneers' offense didn't score at least three touchdowns was Week 9 against the Saints. Seriously. That's a streak of 10 games and includes the Week 12 showdown with this same Chiefs defense. Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in eight of 19 games and has reached two in each of his past 10. The Chiefs' defense allowed 29 passing touchdowns during the regular season, which was 11th-most. With a projection of 2.7 and extremely attractive juice (+140), the over makes sense here.
Brady under 39.5 passing attempts (-120)
Fortenbaugh: Brady has reached 40 attempts in just nine of 19 games this season, while Kansas City has permitted 40 or more passing attempts in only five of 18 games this season. Pay close attention to those five aforementioned contests and you'll notice that all five of those teams founds themselves trailing KC by two or more scores with plenty of time left on the clock. Translation: those quarterbacks were slinging the ball all over the field in a desperate attempt to play catch-up. I don't see the Bucs getting blown out of this game and, thus, Brady won't find himself throwing the ball 40-plus times.
Brady's first TD pass under 12.5 yards (-125)
Kezirian: Brady has thrown 47 touchdown passes this year, including the postseason, and only 18 of them were 13 yards or longer. This is more so about the matchup. I expect a somewhat conservative approach by Tampa, considering a 17-0 deficit in the regular-season meeting. The Bucs will look to avoid turnovers and a shootout while trusting Brady to make the right reads. Additionally, the KC defense has performed fairly well against wide receivers this season but struggled to defend tight ends and running backs in the passing game. I expect Brady to capitalize and hopefully not have an open downfield target. Finally, Arians trusts Brady to throw around the goal line, so even in running situations, Brady has a track record of throwing for a short TD.
Brady will not have a rushing TD (-250)
Kezirian: As we know from past Super Bowls, there is often value in laying juice. The public loves betting props that have a large payout because no one is eager to risk a lot to win a little, thus pushing the money lines lower. I am not one to bet against overtime or a safety, but I am willing to lay some juice in lopsided situations. Brady has mastered the QB sneak, and it has even reached a point where fans are baffled how other teams cannot duplicate the success. He certainly makes it look easy. However, while we are knowledgeable about those scenarios, they are actually still uncommon. He only has four rushing touchdowns in 19 games this season. I believe there's more than a 71.4% chance (equivalent of -250) that Brady is held without a rushing TD.
Johnson: This proposition is severely underpriced. Brady only has 32 rushing touchdowns in his entire career. If the angle for him scoring is that it's the playoffs and the Super Bowl so Brady is more likely to rush the ball without any concern for an injury, I'd combat it with the fact he only has seven touchdowns on the ground in 44 playoff starts. He has four touchdowns in 19 starts this season. At -250 we only need to avoid a Brady rushing touchdown 71.4% of the time to break even, and in my opinion, it should be priced in the -400s. This is a bargain.
Brady over 2.5 TD passes (+140), over 301.5 passing yards (-115), over 24.5 completions (-135)
Fulghum: The Brady-led Bucs have score 30-plus points in six straight games. Brady is playing at an extraordinarily high level right now, and if the Bucs win this game, it's likely due to Brady's production through the air. If the Chiefs win this game, it's likely that Brady and the Bucs are throwing a lot in the second half to try and keep up.
Brady under 301.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: Brady has not passed for more than 280 yards in either of his last two games and has completed just 55% of his passes in that span. KC's interior rush will make things difficult for him on Sunday.
Brady passing TDs over total goals scored in Leicester City-Wolves (-110)
Schatz: Yes, I analyzed the Premier League scoring table for this prop bet. According to StatsBomb, Leicester City has 6.6 more goals than "expected goals." And Wolves have 4.8 more goals against than "expected goals against." So a Leicester City-Wolves game should be lower scoring than people are expecting. Based on past expected goals, we should expect 2.4 goals scored in this Premier League game. That's similar to the regular old Brady passing touchdowns prop (over/under 2.5), except this one is much more likely to push if Brady is limited to two touchdowns.
History of the coin toss
There's not much to say about a 50/50 toss, but it has been tails 29 times and heads 25 times in the previous 54 Super Bowls.
Mahomes over 40.5 pass attempts (-120)
Clay: Mahomes has gone over 40 pass attempts in nine of 17 games this season. That includes 49 in Week 12 against the Buccaneers. Mahomes threw 42 passes in last year's Super Bowl. The Chiefs have operated the league's game script adjusted second pass-heaviest offense this season and will face a Buccaneers defense that is elite against the run and has thus been thrown on at the league's sixth-highest rate. Tampa Bay has faced at least 41 pass attempts in six of its past nine games. Mahomes' projection checks in at 45.
Fortenbaugh: Mahomes averaged 39.2 passing attempts per game this season, so it's not as if this prop is asking him to produce an outlier performance. It's also worth mentioning that when these two squads got together back in Week 12, the Texas Tech product threw the ball 49 times despite a 20-7 halftime lead that would have seen other teams ease off the gas pedal. Remember, Tampa ranks first in the NFL in opponent yards per rushing attempt (3.7), so the best course of action for the defending champs will be to ride the right arm of their $500 million signal-caller.
Mahomes' longest completion over 39.5 yards (-115)
Kezirian: This one is pretty straight forward. Mahomes has tons of speedy options, and there is only so much the Tampa defense can do. Pick your poison. Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins all can get behind the defense. Remember, Watkins had over 200 yards receiving in the first quarter of their regular-season meeting, thanks to two long touchdowns. Plus, this prop can hit on a short pass when a speedster racks up yards after making a defender or two miss tackles. Additionally, Tampa starting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. still has not practiced after missing the NFC Championship Game with an ankle injury. There is uncertainty whether he will heal in time, and while he has played well this season, he is still a rookie and missing practice is less than ideal.
Mahomes over 334.5 passing yards (-115), under 19.5 rushing yards (-120), over 40.5 pass attempts (-120)
Fulghum: The reigning Super Bowl MVP has some legitimate concerns with the health of his offensive line. Despite that, I'll still bet on Mahomes throwing often, as it is undoubtedly still the Chiefs' best way to win the game. If the Bucs have a lead in the second quarter, then that makes Mahomes all the more dangerous.
Mahomes over 22.5 rushing yards (-115)
Walder: Over the course of the season, Todd Bowles has significantly increased the rate at which the Bucs run 2-man coverage, according to ESPN's route classification using NFL Next Gen Stats. The trend topped out in the conference championship game against the Packers when Tampa Bay ran 2-man 26% of the time. And I'd expect that pattern to hold in the Super Bowl as the Bucs attempt to stop the deep passes from Mahomes that crushed them the first time these teams played.
The downside to 2-man? It leaves you vulnerable to scrambles. League-wide this season quarterbacks scrambled at a higher rate and averaged more yards per scramble vs. 2-man than any other coverage. The Bucs might make it harder for Mahomes to hit Tyreek Hill deep, but I'd expect the Chiefs' QB to have room to run on Sunday.
Hill over 91.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay: Hill has only reached 92 receiving yards in seven games this season, though he's done so in six of his past 10. That includes both playoff games (110 and 172 yards, respectively). It also includes an absurd Week 12 performance against the Buccaneers in which he caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Hill's volume is on the rise, as he has seen 10-plus targets in seven of his past nine games. His projection of 101 yards makes this one a close call at -115.
Hill longest reception over 27.5 yards (-115)
Fulghum: Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three TDs when these two teams met in Week 12. I imagine Bowles is going to try something different tactically to limit Hill. Good luck. Hill is one of the best big-play weapons the game has seen, and with as many times as I expect Mahomes to drop back and throw, a big play from Hill is likely to come.
Hill over 6.5 receptions (-135)
Marks: Thank you, Scotty Miller, for the bulletin board material, saying he is faster than Hill. Hill now has a little extra motivation, and Mahomes will tee him up. The last time these two teams faced in Week 12, Hill had 15 targets and 13 receptions.
Kelce longest reception under 25.5 yards (-115)
Walder: Kelce is getting the full-blown wide receiver treatment with this longest reception line -- as he should, given that his production blows away the rest of the tight ends. But if we compare Kelce among all pass-catchers, I don't think he quite justifies a number this high. While his volume is exceptional for anyone -- he's targeted on over 29% of his routes run, seventh-highest among all WR and TEs with at least 200 routes run including the playoffs -- the depth of those throws is unexceptional. Among that same group, he ranks just 115th in depth at 3 seconds and 87th in air yards per target. Those numbers don't blow me away and pale in comparison to someone like Mike Evans, whose number is 24.5 for this game, though he does receive less volume.
Kelce over 97.5 receiving yards (-115), over 7.5 receptions (-140), Kelce TD/Chiefs win (+130)
Fulghum: Since the Week 10 bye, Kelce has caught a touchdown pass in every game he's played -- except Week 12 against the Bucs. Still, he caught eight passes for 82 yards that day, and had Hill not gone absolutely nuclear that afternoon, he would have had more. Kelce has gone for 98 or more yards in eight of the last 10 games he's played and caught eight or more passes in nine of his last 10. He has become one of the most bankable commodities in the entire NFL.
Kelce scores TD (-162)
Marks: Kelce is a matchup nightmare, and playing alongside Hill makes the challenge even more difficult for Tampa. The Bucs will have to pick their poison between giving extra attention to defending one or the other. Kelce received 12 end zone targets this season; I expect him to score on Sunday.
Kelce receiving yards -.5 vs. Knicks points vs. Heat on Sunday
Kezirian: The Knicks have the sixth-worst offensive efficiency and third-worst effective shooting percentage this season. They are also dead last in 3-pointers attempted and made.
As for Kelce, he is as reliable as there is. He's the rare combination of a safety valve and nearly unguardable tight end. The guy always finds a way to get open and has great hands. He was poised to lead the league in receiving yards before sitting the Week 17 game (since the Chiefs had already clinched). I think he surpasses the century mark, and I like the Knicks in a potential rock fight to give me some wiggle room.
Rob Gronkowski over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: The Buccaneers have been using Gronkowski more as a blocker than as a pass receiver in recent weeks, since the injury to right guard Alex Cappa. Nonetheless, I think this game sets up for Gronk to make a couple of big plays. Gronk's 14 yards against the Saints in the divisional round is an artificially low total, given that he had five targets. He has gone over this prop in four of the last six games. Gronk had over 100 yards in the first Tampa Bay-Kansas City matchup, and the Chiefs gave up 140 yards total to Gronk and Cameron Brate. It was the most yards the Chiefs gave to tight ends in any game this season -- and on average, they allowed almost 10 more yards per game than the average team allowed to tight ends.
Walder: If we combine expected completed air yards and expected YAC for a player, using NFL Next Gen Stats models, we can determine the expected yards per game for that player given the opportunity he received. For Gronkowski, that number is 35.5, solidly above this line. Gronk has caught passes at a rate below-expectation this season, a departure from his previous seasons. But even if we believe that to be his new level of performance, it is offset by the fact that his large frame still rumbles for more than a yard of extra YAC per reception.
On top of all that, the Bucs have run more crossing routes of late, which benefits Gronkowski. The veteran tight end averaged 3 yards per crossing route run this season (including playoffs), more than any other non-screen route type.
Godwin under 5.5 receptions (-120), under 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay: Godwin hasn't had more than five receptions in a game since Week 12, but he has gone over 71 receiving yards in eight of 15 games this season. That includes an 8-97-0 line on nine targets against the Chiefs in Week 12. Despite that strong showing, Godwin will have his hands full against a Chiefs defense that is elite slowing wide receivers. They allowed the fewest receptions, as well as the second-fewest targets and receiving yards to the position during the regular season. They also allowed the second-lowest catch rate and seventh-lowest yards per target. In 18 games, including the playoffs, only 12 wideouts have reached six catches, and 13 have reached 72 receiving yards against them. Godwin's projection checks in at 4.8 receptions for 63 yards.
Fournette over 23.5 receiving yards (-120)
Schatz: Fournette has been a bigger part of the Tampa Bay passing game in recent weeks, with over 30 receiving yards in three of the last five games. Kansas City ranked 31st in DVOA against running backs in the passing game this season and allowed 48 yards per game to opposing backs (adjusted for schedule).
Fournette over 3.5 receptions (-130)
Fulghum: One of the safest bets in terms of targeting where production is going to come from, Fournette is basically the only running back Arians and Brady will throw the football to at this point in the season. Ronald Jones was never a pass-catcher and suffered a finger injury at the end of the year that may still have lingering effects. Fournette has seen at least four targets and caught at least four passes in all three playoff games the Bucs have played this season.
Fournette over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
Marks: The Bucs are committed to running the ball, especially on first down, and the Chiefs were much less efficient against the run than the pass. Fournette is playing on over 70% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs and averaged over 4.0 yards per carry after contact against the Packers.
Jones II under 0.5 receptions (+155)
Clay: Jones has emerged as an effective rusher in the NFL, but he has yet to make a consistent impact as a pass-catcher. That's especially the case lately, as he has played a secondary role behind Fournette. Over his past three games, Jones has zero receptions on one target. In fact, he has been held without a single catch in four of his past six games and has a total of six targets during that span. Jones has run a total of 10 pass routes in two playoff games. All it takes is one catch for this one to fail, but at +155, it's worth the risk.
Darrel Williams under 2.5 receptions (-170)
Fortenbaugh: Williams went from catching four passes on four targets while playing 79 percent of the offensive snaps against the Browns in the divisional round to catching one pass on only one target while playing just 46 percent of the offensive snaps against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Hmm, I wonder what caused such a significant drop in production? Oh, yeah, it was the return of rookie first-round selection Clyde Edwards-Helaire from injury. There's some significant juice to lay here, but the limited snaps make it worth a spin on the roulette wheel.
No sacks for Frank Clark (-130)
Walder: This is a great time to fade a player coming off a strong conference championship game. Make no mistake, Clark's 2020 was a disappointment. In addition to recording just six sacks, Clark ranked 40th in pass rush win rate as an edge rusher out of 46 qualifiers. And that's despite receiving below-average double-team attention. While he did record two sacks against the Bills, one of those sacks came 8.7 seconds after the snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats (the other was a not-so-speedy 5.3, too). To top it all off, Brady was sacked on just 3.3% of dropbacks this season, the third-lowest rate in the league.
No sacks for Jason Pierre-Paul (+130)
Walder: You can basically drag and drop the same analysis above for Pierre-Paul, just switch the teams and tweak the numbers. Pierre-Paul actually ranked a couple spots lower than Clark in pass-rush win rate, but he did have a few more sacks (9.5) this season. He, too, is facing a QB that doesn't take many sacks -- Mahomes' sack rate was just 3.4%, fourth-best in the league and one spot behind Brady. Pierre-Paul's sacks were much speedier than Clark last week (both under 4 seconds), so I can't dismiss them so easily -- but we're also getting a decent price bump with the juice on Pierre-Paul relative to Clark.
Daniel Sorensen over 5.5 tackles/assists (-105)
Clay: Sorensen has racked up 103 tackles (solo plus assist) in 17 games this season. That works out to 6.1 per game. It also includes early-season games in which he was the Chiefs' third safety behind Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill. Sorensen played 76% of the snaps through Week 7 but eventually passed Thornhill and has played 99% of the snaps since. He has been over 5.5 total tackles in 10 of his past 14 games. His projection comes in at 6.8.
Other props to consider
The big game is here with a long assortment of player props, so included here is a full box score projection. Click here to access the PDF, which includes the offense, defense, special teams and point total projections. And if you want to analyze WR vs. CB matchups, you can access that PDF for the game here. Below are a few more intriguing player props. And feel free to compare the projections in the PDF to the props you come across.
History of the Gatorade dump
Made famous by Bill Parcells' dousing in his Giants days, everyone wants to know what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach. It has been orange five times over the last 15 years (and three of the last seven), more than any other color.
Mahomes over 0.5 INTs (+140)
Clay: Incredibly, Mahomes has only thrown an interception in four games this season, and three of his six were in one game. However, some outlets have charted him as having set an NFL record with 16 dropped interceptions. Tampa Bay's 15 regular-season INTs ranked seventh in the NFL. This projection comes in at 0.7.
Gronkowski under 2.5 receptions (-105)
Clay: Gronk has under three catches in five straight and nine of past 11 games, averaging 2.6 targets per game over his past five outings. His projection comes in at 2.1.
Jones II over 8.5 carries (-120)
Clay: Jones has had over eight carries in 13 of 16 games, including seven straight. His projection comes in at 9.8.
Hardman over 25.5 receiving yards (+100)
Clay: Hardman has reached 26 yards in nine games this season and has three-plus targets in seven of his past eight games. His projection is 35.8 receiving yards.
Succop over 1.5 made FGs (+100), over 7.5 points (+110)
Clay: Succop has made at least two field goals in eight of 19 games this season. He has made 36 of 39 FG attempts, including 8-of-8 in the playoffs. He has scored eight-plus points in 11 of 19 games, including two of three playoff games. His projection is 1.6 field goals made and 7.9 points.
No sacks for Pierre-Paul (+130)
Clay: Pierre-Paul had 2.0 sacks in his last game but zero in each of his previous five games and nine of his past 16. Mahomes has had one of the league's best sack rates (85th percentile or better) in each of his three seasons. Pierre-Paul's projection is 0.4.
Derrick Nnadi over 2.5 tackles/assists (+110)
Clay: Nnadi has at least three tackles plus assists in 10 of 17 games this season, including six of his past nine. His projection is 3.1.
Chris Jones over 2.5 tackles/assists (+130)
Clay: He has gone over this mark in only one of his past four games but eight of 12 before the recent "slump." His projection is 2.7.
Props based on game script
Marks: Below are a number of prop bets I like based on game script and how I envision this matchup to play out. My final score has the Chiefs winning 34-23. Tampa has had success stopping the run this season, but Mahomes, Hill and Kelce should dominate a young and inexperienced secondary. The Chiefs defense will have success getting to Brady and limiting the Bucs' passing game. KC's defense does a great job not allowing explosive passing plays and keeping everything underneath. At the end of the day, the Chiefs will win their second straight championship and Mahomes will win another Super Bowl MVP.
Chiefs score exactly 34 points (16-1)
Buccaneers score exactly 23 points (16-1)
Chiefs over 3.5 TDs (-110)
Chiefs have most trips to red zone (-115)
Buccaneers punt before TD (-125)
Mahomes over 2.5 TD passes (-150)
Mahomes over 27.5 completions (-130)
Mahomes has rushing TD (+240)
Mahomes MVP (-120)
Hardman has rushing attempt (+160)
Fournette over 3.5 receptions (-115)
Miller over 1.5 receptions (-140)
Tyler Johnson over 0.5 receptions (-155)
Illustrations by Alejandro Parrilla. Photo Credits from top: Jamie Squire/Getty Images; Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images; Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports; Al Bello/Getty Images; Mel Evans/AP Photo; Jamie Squire/Getty Images; David Santiago/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service/Getty Images