With wild-card weekend behind us and our early-look under bet in the Bears-Saints game getting to the window, we turn to find if any early value presents itself in the next round. Similar to last week, there is one total that sticks out to me worth grabbing now, and I also added a few notes and my projections on the rest of the divisional-round games. Let's dig in.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 55)
I think this opener of 55 is too low. I won't try to convince you the Kansas City offense led by Patrick Mahomes can score on a Browns defense that finished the regular season ranked 25th in success rate against the run and 15th against the pass. We already know that. I do think, however, that the Cleveland offense is much better than its surface metrics show this season. The Browns played three of their 16 regular-season games in inclement weather. They played over half of their games with a decimated offensive line, and they had another game late in the season that their top four receivers missed for COVID-19 contact tracing. When they drop 41 on the Titans and 42 on the Ravens down the stretch and then hit us with 48 on Sunday night against the Steelers without head coach and playcaller Kevin Stefanski on the sideline, we need to take note. We could absolutely see similar game scripts in this matchup against the Chiefs as we saw in each of those other three contests.
I expect this total to move up, and if you agree with me I'd grab it sooner rather than later. If you are wanting to play the other way I wish you luck, and I anticipate you'll be able to get a better number and price later in the week.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7, 46.5)
If these teams had met in Week 15, the point spread would not have been this high. I still don't think it should be this high, but there are quite a few moving parts on the Rams' side that make their health questionable at this point in the week. We know about the quarterback situation between John Wolford and Jared Goff. Wolford left the wild-card game early after getting the start, and Goff was able to finish the contest and lead the Rams to a win. Wolford's status is uncertain, but the hope is that Goff's thumb is improved at the very least. What we do know, however, is that neither quarterback is 100%.
There were three players who sustained new injuries during Saturday's game that are concerning for Los Angeles: receiver Cooper Kupp, defensive lineman Aaron Donald and offensive lineman David Edwards. Donald is the most valuable defender on the squad, and most would argue in the entire NFL. The X-rays on his ribs came back negative, but if his effectiveness is limited, the defensive side of the ball takes a clear hit. This is an especially impactful wrinkle because the Packers lost their star left tackle David Bakhtiari for the season to a knee injury. I liked the prospects of this Rams defense and Donald creating pressure on Aaron Rodgers and a weaker offensive line. Kupp and Edwards are both considered day-to-day, but with the uncertainty already at quarterback, Kupp's loss would be detrimental for Sean McVay and the offense.
The last significant piece to this puzzle worth noting is that the Packers are coming off a bye week with a rest advantage. That's another difference from my hypothetical scenario of these two teams meeting in Week 15. Again, I mentioned I still think the +7 is too high regardless, but a lot has changed and it's important to be aware of the multitude of injuries hitting the Rams right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 51)
There has already been some movement in this game since the early opener, and my projections line up with both. I make the Saints a 3.3-point favorite on average with a total of 52.1. The +4s and 49.5s were gobbled up right away, and at this point I don't show much of an advantage on either the point spread or the total.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 50)
It's possible the lack of scoring in the Ravens' win over the Titans is playing a role in the opener here being a smidge low. My personal projection is closer to 51, which isn't enough of a discrepancy to play the total over anyway at 50, but I do think John Harbaugh and Baltimore's defense shutting down Derrick Henry and the Tennessee offense probably has people looking at young Josh Allen and wondering how he'll perform against this blitz-heavy attack (Baltimore's 44.1% blitz rate leads the NFL). The 2.5-point spread is spot on, so I'm ultimately staying away from this game for now, but if you are interested in the Ravens' side, there are a few shops dealing +3 at a decent price.