With the wild-card matchups now set for the NFL playoffs, one game in particular is worth betting sooner rather than later.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 48)
I like the under. I project it closer to 46 with a healthy backfield for the Saints, and we're still not sure if Alvin Kamara will be cleared to play in time. Kamara's impact is huge -- he scored 21 touchdowns in 15 games, and was ranked No. 2 among all running backs in DVOA. Again, I think 48 is high even if Kamara is available. But if he doesn't play or is limited, don't expect much from the Saints' rushing attack against the best run defense in the NFL in terms of success rate.
Both defenses are ranked in the top six in success rate against both the pass and the run -- the Steelers are the only other team in the league that can boast that. They are both ranked in the top six in adjusted defensive EPA, too.
Offensively, only three teams are worse in EPA than the Bears (the Jaguars, Broncos and Jets). Via ESPN Stats & Information research, the Bears are 14th in seconds per play (28.0), and the Saints are 29th (29.6).
This game doesn't project to be played at a high pace, boasts two of the best defenses in the NFL and features one of the worst offenses in the league, and another that might be missing its star running back. A total of 48 points is definitely too high for me.
Other matchups
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 52)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 42.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, 46.5) at Washington
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 54.5) at Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 47)