We've got another Monday doubleheader in the NFL in Week 13. The 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers will host 4-7 Washington, followed by a matchup between the 5-6 San Francisco 49ers and the 8-3 Buffalo Bills in ... Glendale, Arizona. Yes, it's been a strange season.
ESPN betting experts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets on the two games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-1, 47)
Bills +1
Schatz: The Bills (11th in DVOA) are only a little better than the 49ers (14th), but what matters is where they are better. The Bills are eighth on offense, while the 49ers are 19th. And offense is more predictive than defense; we have a better idea of who these teams are on that side of the ball. Defense is harder to predict, but we do know that Buffalo's is trending upwards: the Bills ranked 30th in defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-6, but ninth in Weeks 7-12. And the 49ers' offense would be ranked 30th if we only included the past four weeks since Nick Mullens became the starting quarterback. Add in the neutral site (moved from San Francisco to Arizona due to legal restrictions), and I really like the Bills.
49ers -1
Fortenbaugh: No NFL playcaller can design and coordinate a rushing attack as well as San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan. That's a massive advantage for the 49ers entering Monday night, because Buffalo's Achilles' heel is defending the run -- the Bills entered Week 13 ranked 25th in run defense and 27th in opponent yards per rush. Throw in the fact that the San Francico wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk return from injury this week, and you've got a pretty good idea why this line moved from Buffalo -3 all the way to San Francisco -1.
49ers +5 (teaser with Washington); Cole Beasley over 56.5 receiving yards
Marks: The Bills have not won on Monday night since 2015. The 49ers are healthier on both sides of the ball. The Bills' defense has underperformed this season, ranked 22nd in the league. And the loss of John Brown is significant to the Bills' offense and their success in 11 personnel.
Washington at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 43.5)
Final: Steelers, Washington
Steelers -7
Schatz: These two teams are structured similarly, except that Pittsburgh is better in all three phases. Both are excellent on defense, with Pittsburgh ranked first in DVOA and Washington fifth. On offense, Pittsburgh is 15th and Washington 27th. Has Washington been better since Alex Smith became quarterback? Yes! If we only included the past four weeks, they would move all the way up to ... 26th. The reason the move is so small is opponent adjustments: recent improvement by the Washington offense has come against a very easy schedule. Pittsburgh is a much bigger challenge. In particular, Antonio Gibson could have trouble against a Steelers' front that leads the league in adjusted line yards allowed per carry, and ranks second in frequency of stuffing opposing runners for a loss or no gain (25% of carries).
Washington +7
Bearman: Washington has had a lot more time off than Pittsburgh, having last played on Thanksgiving, blowing out Dallas. The Steelers, on the other hand, are coming off a divisional battle with Baltimore and just four days off in between games. According to ESPN Stats & Information, this is the first time since 1968 that a team on four or fewer days rest will play a team on at least 10 days. I was not impressed by Pittsburgh's performance against Baltimore. Washington is fighting for a division title and coming off its best game of the season. Washington's defense is fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed -- second in passing and 15th against the run. In the past two games, it's held Cincinnati and Dallas to 25 total points. The last time the Steelers faced the Ravens, they almost lost to Dallas the next week and that was on normal rest. I expect a close game here and will happily take the touchdown and a little on outright upset..
Washington +13 (teaser with 49ers)
Marks: The Steelers are overrated, and coming off way less rest. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, may not have center Maurkice Pouncey available, and Washington has racked up 36 sacks this season. On defense, Bud Dupree will be severely missed, and Washington has enough talent to keep this within one score. P.S. Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is doubtful with a hip injury.