A season of constant uncertainty and slippery footing has featured one constant: Even when head coach Nick Saban is in quarantine, Alabama is still Alabama.
The Crimson Tide have gone on a take-no-prisoners romp through their all-SEC schedule, winning each of their first eight games by at least 15 points and five games by at least 28 points. They took some solid shots from former Saban defensive coordinator Kirby Smart's Georgia in the first half but outscored the Bulldogs 21-0 in the second half. Alabama's defense was blitzed by former Saban offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss but put the game away with a 21-6 fourth quarter. The Rebels' performance opened a series of questions about the Crimson Tide's defense, but the Tide have allowed just 33 points in their past nine halves of football.
Alabama is now comfortably first in offensive SP+ and up to ninth on defense. Following a 42-13 destruction of Auburn, the Crimson Tide have entered lofty territory. Their overall SP+ rating of +31.7 adjusted points per game (meaning they're assumed to be 31.7 points better than the average FBS team in 2020) has reached the 99.5th percentile, a lofty space that the Tide have entered only once before. We'll come back to that.
Projecting the Alabama-Florida line
Upsets happen, but it's a pretty safe assumption that Alabama will reach the SEC championship game on Dec. 19 unbeaten. Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill lists the Crimson Tide as 28.5-point favorites at LSU this weekend -- a historic line -- and they will be favored by a similar amount next week at Arkansas.
The serious tests will come soon after.
It's easy to boil the remaining College Football Playoff race down to a pair of games: the Notre Dame-Clemson rematch in the ACC championship game and Alabama-Florida. Granted, there's an "If Ohio State can't get back on the field soon, things could get weird" disclaimer, but these are clearly the two biggest games left on the regular-season docket.
Alabama-Florida is a big game only if Florida can put together a threat, though.
SP+ projection: Alabama 38.2, Florida 27.5
While SP+ projects Alabama as a 10.7-point favorite, I'm guessing the line would be something closer to -12 or -13. Not only has Alabama been projected as a heavy favorite in nearly every game this season, but the Crimson Tide have also exceeded projections nearly every time. They are covering by an average of 9.4 points per game (18th in FBS) and exceeding SP+ projections by 10.4 (ninth). Both Vegas and the math are still catching up to how good the Tide are.
Basically, for anyone to beat Alabama this season, it'll come down to the pass rush -- both Alabama's and its opponent's. The Crimson Tide's defense ranks a ghastly 94th in sack rate and 96th on passing downs. They're pretty passive even in obvious-pass situations, blitzing a pretty average amount and sacrificing efficiency for big-play prevention.
The pressure rates are decent. Heading into the Auburn game, linebackers Will Anderson Jr. and Christian Harris had combined to force 22 incompletions and four interceptions, per Sports Info Solutions. Still, the passing downs inefficiency is a problem that a top quarterback -- be it Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Ian Book or Kyle Trask -- could punish.
The opponent's pass rush has to get home, too, and few are doing so. The Crimson Tide are combining an ultra-efficient run game (third in rushing success rate) with an RPO game that is more devastating than ever. I wrote last week that offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian has done a great job of making the Alabama offense a little less automated, adding an extra layer of fakes to take advantage of defensive assumptions. The opening touchdown in the win over Auburn was the best fake yet.
Alabama's offense is wonderfully spaced, loaded with talent and built with counters of counters of counters. The only way to disrupt the Crimson Tide's offensive flow is get to quarterback Mac Jones before the slower developing RPOs can take effect. If you can't, you're toast.
Florida has a good enough offense to do some damage. The Gators are sixth in offensive SP+, and Trask is completing 71% of his passes with an obscene 34-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. Although opponents are generating occasional pressure, they aren't bringing Trask down (13th in sack rate allowed), and he's getting the ball to any number of matchup nightmares: tight end Kyle Pitts (29 catches, 513 yards, 11 TDs), "athlete" Kadarius Toney (45 catches for 541 yards) and even running backs Malik Davis, Nay'Quan Wright and Dameon Pierce (44 catches, 588 yards combined). Florida will score quite a bit on Alabama because Florida scores on every team.
The Gators' pass rush is merely good, though. Florida ranks 32nd in sack rate, with only Brenton Cox Jr. and Zachary Carter providing serious oomph. Florida will score, but Alabama will probably score more.
Projecting the Alabama-Clemson (or Ohio State or Notre Dame) lines
SP+ projections: Alabama 32.3, Clemson 29.6
Alabama 34.5, Ohio State 30.3
Alabama 33.9, Notre Dame 26.0
The three most likely CFP foes for Alabama happen to be the second-, third- and fourth-ranked teams in SP+. Neither Clemson nor Ohio State nor Notre Dame would need too many breaks to beat the Crimson Tide -- especially Clemson, now that the Tigers have seemingly moved into the post-loss maim-and-destroy mode that we've gotten to know over the years. Ohio State probably has the second-best offense in the country, and Notre Dame is one of only three teams (along with Alabama and Clemson) to rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive SP+. They all have plenty to offer. But judging how SP+ and Vegas have seen Alabama to date, I'm guessing the lines would be something close to Alabama -4 vs. Clemson, -6 vs. Ohio State and -9 or -10 vs. Notre Dame.
How do these teams do in the two pass-rushing categories discussed above?
Clemson
Offense: 3.8% sack rate allowed (28th in FBS), 22.5% pressure rate allowed (20th), 0.23 blitzes faced per dropback (89th most)
Defense: 10.6% sack rate (10th), 37.5% pressure rate (fourth), 0.33 blitzes per dropback (27th)
Of all the potential opponents left on the schedule, it's hard not to get excited about the thought of a matchup between Sarkisian and Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables. The Tigers don't have their best front seven ever, but this group generates quite a bit of pressure without blitzing a huge amount of the time. More importantly, they get to the passer on standard downs, i.e. the downs on which RPOs are most heavily involved.
Clemson sacks the quarterback 13.5% of the time on standard downs, the most in the country and, strangely, more than the Tigers sack the QB in obvious-pass situations. If anybody can tamp down this RPO game before it gets rolling, it's Clemson.
If Jones gets his passes off, though, there could be trouble. Clemson is allowing a paltry 50% completion rate this season, but the Tigers are allowing 13.3 yards per completion, 105th in FBS. They're pretty all-or-nothing, and if the pass rush doesn't get home, the all-or-nothing ratio could be Alabama-friendly.
Ohio State
Offense: 9.8% sack rate allowed (110th), 25.4% pressure rate allowed (35th), 0.42 blitzes faced per dropback (fifth)
Defense: 8.3% sack rate (27th), 34.9% pressure rate (16th), 0.20 blitzes per dropback (92nd)
Ohio State's pass rush is decent but unspectacular. The Buckeyes' performance in pass protection, however, rang alarm bells in their most recent outing.
Indiana sacked Fields five times in 35 attempts and forced multiple panicked throws from the typically calm and collected junior quarterback. Granted, Ohio State ran all over the Hoosiers (330 yards, not including the sacks) and scored 35 offensive points. But Alabama's defense might need to make only a few stops to generate an advantage, and a few well-timed sacks or pressures could do the job.
Notre Dame
Offense: 6.0% sack rate allowed (64th), 29.4% pressure rate allowed (68th), 0.30 blitzes faced per dropback (46th)
Defense: 8.8% sack rate (21st), 36.3% pressure rate (ninth), 0.23 blitzes per dropback (84th)
Book is the forgotten man among current quarterbacks with playoff potential. A longtime Irish starter, Book mastered the art of being good but not elite in 2018-19, but he has blossomed as a senior. He is 10th in Total QBR, completing 63% of his passes with only one interception and, most interestingly, 68 rushes (not including sacks) for 485 yards and six TDs.
If you key too much on Notre Dame's devastating running backs or if you play man coverage and turn your back on Book, he'll punish you. Plus, he proved against North Carolina that he has quite the Johnny Football streak in him as well.
Book has turned into a serious wild card. Notre Dame is excellent but doesn't quite grade out as well as the other three teams we're discussing. Book takes a decent amount of sacks and pressure, but his improvisational ability to create chunk plays under duress could be an equalizer.
Projecting the Alabama-Alabama line
I mentioned above that Alabama is currently in the 99.5th percentile of the SP+ ratings. That's rarified air. Only five teams in the past 50 years have finished at that level or higher: 1971 Nebraska, 1974 Oklahoma, 1980 Nebraska, 1995 Nebraska ... and 2018 Alabama.
As great as a team might be, it has to finish the job. The 2018 Crimson Tide were nearly perfect on paper, beating three top-5-at-the-time teams by a combined 47 points and reaching the national championship game while facing only one serious challenge (vs. Georgia in the SEC championship game). But an early A.J. Terrell pick-six, incredible third-down passing from Trevor Lawrence and Alabama red zone failures led to a title-game dud. Clemson won 44-16, wrecking what would otherwise have been Saban's most perfect season.
While we wait to see if the 2020 team can close the way the 2018 team couldn't, I thought it would be fun to see how this Alabama team would be projected to fare against Saban's previous Alabama teams. Based on the percentile ratings of the previous teams' offenses and defenses, the 2020 team would be projected to beat all of the others.
SP+ projections: 2020 Alabama 32.9, 2018 Alabama 32.5 (+0.4)
2020 Alabama 32.8, 2019 Alabama 31.7 (+1.1)
2020 Alabama 29.3, 2017 Alabama 27.7 (+1.6)
2020 Alabama 31.1, 2014 Alabama 29.4 (+1.8)
2020 Alabama 31.9, 2012 Alabama 29.8 (+2.1)
2020 Alabama 29.8, 2016 Alabama 27.6 (+2.1)
2020 Alabama 29.9, 2011 Alabama 27.5 (+2.4)
2020 Alabama 32.7, 2013 Alabama 29.0 (+3.7)
2020 Alabama 33.2, 2010 Alabama 29.3 (+3.9)
2020 Alabama 30.3, 2015 Alabama 26.3 (+4.0)
2020 Alabama 31.2, 2009 Alabama 26.6 (+4.6)
(That's right: The two Saban teams most likely to compete with the 2020 Crimson Tide didn't win the national title, and the two least effective Saban teams did. Football is a strange sport, and numbers make it even stranger sometimes.)