At last, all the competitors will be in the ring. Our Royal Rumble-style introduction to the 2020 college football season, one conference at a time (more or less), will become a complete battle royal with the MAC making its debut on Wednesday, followed by the Pac-12 on Saturday.
The Pac-12 enters the ring with a dead-on sprint -- six games in six weeks, followed by the conference title game. If a team wins all seven games, its College Football Playoff odds are pretty good. Anything less, and the odds get pretty dicey. ESPN's Stats & Information gives Oregon, for instance, a 22% chance of winning out but only an 18% chance of making the CFP. USC is at 18% and 14%, respectively. Lose, and you're probably out.
The Pac-12's first weekend features a couple of interesting tests. Per SP+, both Oregon and USC are playing the second-best opponents on their respective schedules. Can the two teams most likely to go 6-0 get to 1-0 first?
Let's take a look at those games, plus all the others in the conference.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday.
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 20 USC Trojans (-10.5, 58), Noon ET
SP+ projection: USC 33, Arizona State 22
USC covers if ... last year's defensive issues really were due to youth. Quarterback Kedon Slovis is back, as is a loaded skill corps featuring receivers Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown plus almost every other 2019 contributor as well. The offensive line has questions to answer at tackle but is experienced in the middle. The Trojans jumped from 46th to ninth in offensive SP+ last year, and could climb even higher.
USC's defense was 60th last season, though. Clay Helton brought in former Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, which is fine, but experience will drive improvement. Among last year's 13 leading tacklers, 12 were freshmen or sophomores. If continuity means the Trojans' defense improves a little, they're the favorites in the South. If it improves a lot, they could run the table.
Arizona State covers if ... quarterback Jayden Daniels doesn't have to do so much. Herm Edwards has new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and while the defense has more recognizable names -- coordinator Marvin Lewis, co-coordinator Antonio Pierce -- offensive coordinator Zak Hill might be the more important addition. The former Boise State OC is tasked with creating a system that actually stays on schedule some.
Daniels made a ton of big plays as a freshman, which is great, but the Sun Devils were inconsistent because he had to make so many. The skill corps has receiver Frank Darby, and a ton of youth; there's nothing guaranteeing Hill's structural changes will stick. If they do, though, ASU is a potential contender.
Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes (-14, 58.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)
SP+ projection: Utah 43, Arizona 22
Utah covers if ... a brand new secondary holds up. Continuity at quarterback, wide receiver and defensive back is strongly correlated with year-to-year improvement and regression. Utah has no continuity in two of those three areas.
Quarterback Tyler Huntley's departure means a three-way race between South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley, Texas transfer Cameron Rising and career reserve Drew Lisk. More important for this game, however, is turnover in the secondary. The five starters listed for this week include two true freshmen and three players (including two sophomores) who took part in a combined total of 13 tackles last season. The one thing we know about Arizona is that the Wildcats probably will be able to pass. That's a tricky combination for the Utes.
Arizona covers if ... the defense clears a really, really low bar. Kevin Sumlin added four new defensive coaches, including new coordinator Paul Rhoads, this year, and with good reason. The Wildcats were 114th in defensive SP+ last season, and haven't finished in even the top 70 since 2014.
Granted, Rhoads himself hasn't been part of a top-70 defense since 2012, but the bar's low: the Wildcats are projected 121st in defensive SP+. Mere competence could keep this game close for a while if quarterback Grant Gunnell is taking advantage of Utah's new secondary. But that has been a big ask of late.
UCLA Bruins (-6.5, 56) at Colorado Buffaloes, 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)
SP+ projection: UCLA 32, Colorado 28
UCLA covers if ... Year 3 means consistency for DTR. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is maddening. In his best moments, you see a signal-caller with quick feet and an electric arm, one capable of unleashing a massive comeback against Washington State last year. In his worst moments, you see poor body language, worse footwork and lots of 3-and-outs. If Thompson-Robinson matures into an upper-echelon Pac-12 QB, the Bruins have enough experience on offense to ignite. If not, they could lose to anyone at any time.
Colorado covers if ... new skill players emerge for a new (converted) quarterback. Sam Noyer completed 21 of 41 passes with two interceptions in two years as a Colorado backup, then moved to backup safety in 2019. New head coach Karl Dorrell and offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini decided he was the best option to lead the offense in 2020. Receiver K.D. Nixon is about the only proven entity around him. This is not a great recipe for success.
This offense will definitely need some new playmakers to emerge, even to keep up with the inconsistent Bruins. Receivers Daniel Arias and Jaylon Jackson averaged 19.9 yards per catch last year, but with only 13 receptions. Can anyone in gold and black help Noyer out a bit?
Stanford Cardinal at No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-10, 51), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
SP+ projection: Oregon 34, Stanford 20
Oregon covers if ... the offensive line is ready. Oregon's defense is maybe the most proven unit in the conference outside of USC's offense. Despite some opt-outs, the Ducks are still going to line up Mykael Wright and Deommodore Lenoir at cornerback, Mase Funa at outside linebacker and Kayvon Thibodeaux just about everywhere.
They've got a good offensive skill corps, and between sophomore Tyler Shough and Boston College grad transfer Anthony Brown, a good quarterback probably will emerge. Bringing in offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead is probably an upgrade, too. But last year's top six O-linemen are all gone. The returnees boast one career start. The depth chart features "or" designations at every position, meaning not even the coaches know how the line will take shape. If that O-line is bad, Oregon doesn't go unbeaten, and maybe doesn't even win the North.
Stanford covers if ... last year's youth have rebounded. Scrolling through Stanford's potential depth chart, you see a ton of sophomores and juniors, from quarterback Davis Mills, to wideouts Michael Wilson and Simi Fehoko, to last year's top five offensive linemen, to defensive end Thomas Booker, to potentially three or four starting defensive backs.
The Cardinal plummeted to 88th in SP+ last year because of injury and the fact that those sophomores and juniors were freshmen and sophomores. The magnitude of their rebound depends on how many of these guys benefited from getting thrown into the deep end in 2019.
Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears (-1.5, 43), 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)
SP+ projection: Washington 33, Cal 22
Washington covers if ... SP+ is right. SP+ thought highly of Washington last year -- the Huskies finished 16th in Chris Petersen's final season despite an 8-5 record, primarily because they were dominant in wins (average margin of victory: 23.8 points) and just barely inferior in losses (average margin of defeat: 5.2). They came very close to another 10-win season. Now Petersen's handpicked successor, Jimmy Lake, takes over.
SP+ projects Washington to remain a top-20 team, but that's putting a lot of faith in both offensive coordinator John Donovan -- last seen in the college ranks getting replaced by Joe Moorhead at Penn State in 2016 -- and the new starting quarterback, whomever that is. The depth chart lists four co-starters: three young former blue-chippers, and Sacramento State grad transfer Kevin Thomson. There's quite a bit of burden of proof here.
Cal covers if ... SP+ is wrong. It didn't like the Golden Bears much last year, placing them just 74th despite an 8-5 record. The offense was dinged for how bad it was when quarterback Chase Garbers was injured, but the defense also played pretty poorly by Cal's standards.
With Garbers healthy, Cal is probably better than its No. 49 projection in offensive SP+, but after quite a bit of turnover -- tackling machine Evan Weaver and last year's top four safeties are gone -- the defense is projected to fall to 67th. I'd be surprised if Cal didn't overachieve its projections, but by how much?
Washington State Cougars at Oregon State Beavers (-1.5, 65.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
SP+ projection: Washington State 33, Oregon State 31
Washington State covers if ... Jayden de Laura is ready. New Cougars head coach Nick Rolovich announced on Monday that de Laura, a true freshman from Honolulu's storied St. Louis High, will be his starting quarterback. Rolovich recruited de Laura at Hawaii before taking this job, and liked him enough to lure him to Pullman.
If de Laura is starting immediately because he's a ready-made Pac-12 star, then the Cougars' offense returns enough other talent to look pretty good. If de Laura is starting immediately because none of the other QBs could put up much of a fight, this could be a long short season for the Cougars.
Oregon State covers if ... the defense is more than just Hamilcar Rashed Jr. The senior outside linebacker was incredible last year (22.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 22 run stuffs), but even with him Oregon State ranked only 93rd in defensive SP+. Mind you, that was a significant improvement over 2018 (126th), but it's still not good. The Beavers have solid continuity on D, and if a couple of more stars emerge to frustrate de Laura & Co., the offense should be talented enough to give Oregon State a solid shot at a win in the most closely projected game of the weekend.