The 2020 World Series is here, as the top seeds -- the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers -- both made it out of their respective eight-team playoff brackets. But who will take home the Commissioner's Trophy in Arlington, Texas? Betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson give their thoughts and picks on the 2020 Fall Classic, which begins Tuesday.
Tampa Bay Rays (+175) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Kezirian: The Dodgers are loaded, but the schedule does not stack up favorably for L.A. Ace Walker Buehler will either start Game 2 on short rest or Game 3 on sufficient rest and then not start again until Game 6 or 7.
Given he is battling blister issues that limited him earlier in the playoffs, I imagine manager Dave Roberts will elect for the conservative approach. So I think a Dodgers ticket to win in seven games is enticing at +400 and worth a small play. Roberts pulled the right strings to close out the pennant, but his track record suggests we might question some bullpen decisions. It feels like Buehler will be a key for a Dodgers title.
Along those same lines, as much as I would like +175 payout on Tampa Bay, I think the better play is the Rays +1.5 games (-110). That means the Rays must win at least three games to cash this ticket. We could see vintage Clayton Kershaw and maybe L.A.'s bullpen game keeps Rays hitters in check, but I do think Buehler is the only pitcher who can dominate Tampa Bay's lineup. Of course, the Dodgers can win a couple of games with their bats, but Tampa Bay won the American League East for a reason -- and Randy Arozarena's late surge makes the Rays even more dangerous. Their three starters of Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Charlie Morton are all capable of shutting down L.A.'s powerful lineup. Remember, the Blue Crew had trouble with Atlanta's pitching for a bulk of the National League Championship Series, only mustering a combined two runs in the first three losses against that game's starter.
Pick: Dodgers in exactly seven (+400) and Rays +1.5 games (-110)
Mookie Betts MVP (8-1)
Kezirian: Even casual sports fans caught highlights of the outfielder's exceptional defensive plays in the NLCS. Betts had a direct impact on the games with his glove and, of course, is as good of a hitter as there is. Now, baseball's charm is that anyone can find himself in high-leverage situations, as opposed to other sports that can dictate who takes the last shot or makes the key play. With that being said, 8-1 odds on a dynamic hitter and fielder for the team that's -200 in the World Series is enough for me to bite.
Randy Arozarena MVP (12-1)
Johnson: I think the current market is slightly undervaluing the Rays as a whole, so if I were to take a shot on an MVP pick, it would be someone from Tampa Bay. The Rays' biggest disadvantage in this series is the bats, and if they wind up winning the World Series, it will be because they were able to overcome that. Arozarena has been absolutely scorching since the postseason began, so that is the Rays bat to target.
Arozarena's seven home runs are the most by a rookie in a single postseason (and second most by any player). His 47 total bases are also the second most in postseason history (likely to pass David Freese's 50 in 2011). Despite the short sample, the underlying metrics back it up. According to Statcast data, Arozarena has 20 batted balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph this postseason. That's the most we have seen since 2015. His numbers aren't a fluke.
Considering everything he has done to get the Rays to this point, a well-rounded showing in the World Series -- if Tampa Bay were to win -- will at the very least put him in the conversation. Historically, it has been more unlikely that a single pitcher does enough to snag the award, and considering the Rays' arms are going up against the Dodgers' bats, I'm not sure the pitchers' numbers will be spotless enough to be in the mix anyway. Arozarena is our guy.