Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-5 last week, 4-8 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-3, 8-16), Anita Marks (1-6, 11-16), Preston Johnson (0-1, 6-9), Mike Clay (2-0, 8-3) and Tyler Fulghum (3-3, 4-7), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (1-2, 8-4), Seth Walder (0-4, 9-9) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-3, 12-11-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
8:20 p.m. ET game
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 57.5)
Fortenbaugh: If you can't beat 'em, join 'em -- that's what I've come to realize betting against Seattle week in and week out. So if the Seahawks flop in this spot, you have me to blame. An astounding 22 of Seattle's past 26 games have been decided by one score. What's even funkier is that the Seahawks have won 17 of those 22 games. The Minnesota defense currently ranks 26th in the NFL in scoring (31.3 PPG allowed), as this unit has fallen off dramatically from last season. And don't forget, quarterback Kirk Cousins is just 6-15-1 ATS in prime-time games during his career.
Pick: Six-point teaser with Seahawks -1 and Steelers -1
Fulghum: Russell Wilson is scoring on everybody. That trend is likely to continue against a Minnesota defense that looks nothing like the formidable unit of the past few years. Injuries have removed Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr from Mike Zimmer's squad, and the secondary has been completely revamped for 2020 ... and it is not going well. On the other side, the Seahawks will be without Jamal Adams, and they haven't stopped anyone either. With the emergence of Justin Jefferson, Cousins and the Vikings' offense are in line for a spike game on the road. Seattle's defense is allowing a whopping 401 passing yards per game this season, by far the worst in the league. Minnesota, by the way, is not much better -- 29th in the league defending the pass (291.8) -- so Wilson will undoubtedly cook again in a likely shootout.
Pick: Over 57.5
4 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-9, 49.5)
Bearman: Anyone who stayed up to watch the Eagles-49ers game last Sunday night would agree that San Francisco should not be laying nine points here. Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert might be back, improvements over Nick Mullens and Jerick McKinnon, but not to the point to get this number to nine. San Francisco, ravaged by injuries, has not looked solid this year unless playing the two New York teams. The defense continues to play well despite injuries, but remember, they have played the Giants, Jets and Eagles the past few weeks. Miami, meanwhile, has hung tough against some of the better teams in the league (New England, Buffalo and Seattle) and is sticking with veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins' weaknesses thus far have been on defense, not a huge concern against a struggling 49ers offense. While I don't expect Miami to win, I do think the Dolphins can keep it to a one-score game, as they have done for the most part in all three of their losses this season (the Patriots scored late to win by 10). In addition, this is not a spot the 49ers have done well in, going 3-9-1 as a home favorite the past three seasons.
Pick: Dolphins +9
Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47) at Cleveland Browns
Marks: The Colts' defense is one of the best in the league, and the Browns are in for a rude awakening. Baker Mayfield and crew will not be able to score at will, like they have the past three weeks against Cincinnati, Washington and Dallas. DeForest Buckner will make Mayfield's day difficult, and I expect Xavier Rhodes to limit Odell Beckham Jr. Zach Pascal and Trey Burton will win the matchup battle from the slot, and the Colts should win on the road.
Pick: Colts -1
Fulghum: The Colts' defense is tops in Football Outsiders' Defensive DVOA metric. The same goes for the rankings over at Pro Football Focus. Indianapolis' opposing QBR allowed is the best in the NFL by 20 points. The Colts are allowing the fewest yards per play, and per game, in the NFL. That being said, this will be their toughest test yet. Cleveland's revamped offensive line is among the most dominant in the NFL, and Kevin Stefanski's run game is humming along. Still, Colts games are averaging the fewest plays per game (118.3), and with Stefanski's propensity to run and Frank Reich's rather methodical offense, we are in line for a game script that suppresses plays and opportunities to score.
Pick: Under 47
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 54)
Schatz: This pick is all about the Dallas offense and defense -- everything about the Cowboys says that there will be points scored by both the Cowboys and their opponents. The Cowboys are still way ahead of the rest of the league in both total pace and situation-neutral pace. They put their foot on the gas and run a lot of plays. The Giants are higher in pace than you think: ninth in total pace, 18th in situation-neutral -- so they don't exactly slow things down. The bet here is that the power of the Dallas offense and the ineptitude of the Dallas defense will overcome the ineptitude of the Giants' offense, currently last in the league by DVOA.
Pick: Over 54
Walder: Three of the bottom five interior linemen in run stop win rate (an ESPN metric using Next Gen Stats) are on the Cowboys. Three! Dontari Poe, Antwaun Woods and Tyrone Crawford rank 72nd, 73rd and 76th in the metric out of 76 qualifiers, respectively. The Giants' run blocking is nothing special, and because of that I'm not particularly high on Devonta Freeman over the long haul. But if he's ever going to have a decent game, it's this week.
Pick: Freeman over 47.5 rushing yards
1 p.m. ET games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 54.5)
Kezirian: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have transitioned well from college to the NFL, winning back-to-back games. Both of those wins have come since Christian McCaffrey's injury, showing a coaching acumen beyond feeding the star player. I trust this staff infinitely more than I do Dan Quinn & Co. Plus, Teddy Bridgewater is a ridiculous 18-4 ATS as an underdog. Thanks to injuries, the Falcons' defense has been gross. Carolina is a more reliable and better-coached team.
Pick: Panthers +1
Fortenbaugh: Atlanta's commitment to embarrassing defense deserves some recognition. After all, how often do you come across a unit that has surrendered 30 or more points in four straight games while permitting the astounding average of 6.5 yards per play? Only Miami is surrendering more YPP, but the Dolphins have allowed 30 or more points just twice this season. On the flip side, Carolina's defense has buckled down in recent weeks after giving up 65 points to the Raiders and Buccaneers in their first two games, but the Atlanta offense offers a stiff challenge with talent galore.
Pick: Over 54.5
Marks: Carolina's defense is a lot better than the Atlanta defense that is allowing four touchdowns per game. Panthers running back Mike Davis has filled the McCaffrey void well, and Robby Anderson should have his way with the Falcons' secondary. I'm teasing the Panthers with Joe Burrow's Bengals, who I anticipate keeping it close against the Ravens.
Pick: Six-point teaser with Panthers +7 and Bengals +18
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13, 56)
Schatz: When you think about the Chiefs, you think about points. But all four of Kansas City's games so far have gone under this number of 56! The Chiefs' offense is great, but their defense may be a bit underrated. So far this year, Kansas City is No. 1 in pass defense DVOA. The run defense is much worse, but the Raiders won't be running much if they fall behind Patrick Mahomes and crew. The danger here is that Mahomes will just blow the Raiders' defense (30th in DVOA) out of the water, but so far this year the Chiefs have taken their foot off the gas with a lead late.
Pick: Under 56
Arizona Cardinals (-7, 47) at New York Jets
Johnson: I was surprised to see this open -8 after New York gave up 37 points to a Brett Rypien-led Broncos team. We have since learned that New York will start Joe Flacco at quarterback, so -7 is certainly a bet for me. The immediate market reaction to Arizona's two wins to start the season over San Francisco and Washington was drastic. The Lions and Panthers took sharp money against the Cardinals in Weeks 3 and 4, and now I think we are getting a cheap rebuy on Week 3 MVP candidate Kyler Murray.
Pick: Cardinals -7
Kezirian: I am going back to the Cardinals yet again, even though they cost me last weekend. I still believe in this team, but this is also a play against the hapless Jets. Flacco is a statue and has minimal weapons, and the Jets sure look like the NFL's worst team. I have to believe in Arizona's ability to get this win, so I like the teaser option.
Pick: Six-point teaser with Cardinals -1 and Steelers -1
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh: This bet is all about the situation. On one side you have a Steelers squad that's had two weeks to get ready for this matchup. On the other side is an injury-ravaged Eagles roster that just traveled all the way to Santa Clara for a Sunday night showdown with the 49ers in Week 4. Pittsburgh currently ranks second in the NFL in total defense and opponent yards per play, as well as fifth in scoring defense. Look for the Steelers to assert themselves early against an Eagles team that has committed more turnovers (nine) than any other team in the league. BONUS: Pittsburgh makes for an excellent six-point teaser option in Week 5, perhaps paired with Seattle.
Pick: Steelers -7
Johnson: The Steelers had a near-bye week after the postponement of their game against the Titans. Pittsburgh's defense ranks second in the NFL in success against both the run and the pass, and still leads the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 11%. The market doesn't anticipate the Eagles will be able to score much, and neither do I. Despite the Eagles' win last Sunday night, an injured 49ers team with Nick Mullens under center still closed as an 8.5-point favorite.
Pick: Eagles under 18.5
Bearman: The Steelers' defense is second in total yards allowed (a measly 290 per game) and will be facing a depleted Eagles offense. Even in their win last Sunday night, the Eagles needed a Mullens pick-six to break the 20-point barrier. If the running game is shut down, as the Steelers have done to all three opponents so far this year, the Eagles will have to rely on a passing game that's next to last in the league at 5.2 yards per play. Half their offensive touchdowns this year have been Carson Wentz runs, not a sustainable plan against the Steelers. Instead of messing with the spread, I'll join Preston on the Eagles' total.
Pick: Eagles under 18.5
Walder: JuJu Smith-Schuster has the fifth-lowest air yards per target among all wide receivers who have run at least 60 routes this season. He's playing from the slot a bit more -- 71% of the time, compared with 58% last year, per Next Gen Stats -- and is running fewer crossers in favor of outside short routes, which gain fewer yards on average and are less likely to reach the requisite 21 yards for this prop. And to top it all off, at the time of ball arrival on any pass -- to Smith-Schuster or otherwise -- this season, the Steelers receiver has been 21 yards downfield on only four routes.
Pick: Smith-Schuster longest reception under 20.5 yards
Marks: The Eagles are one of the biggest disappointments of the season. Beyond the injuries, Wentz has been a disaster. Philadelphia beat an injury-ravaged San Francisco team last week, but this week it faces a Pittsburgh defense that is No. 1 in pressure rate. Wentz will be under duress all game, and a rested Steelers offense coming off a Week 4 bye should be fresh and ready to roll. I'm going to tease the Steelers with the Cardinals, who will take on a dysfunctional Jets team that is without Sam Darnold.
Pick: Six-point teaser with Steelers -1 and Cardinals -1
Los Angeles Rams (-7, 45) at Washington Football Team
Fortenbaugh: What did the Rams do to warrant such brutal treatment from the schedule-makers? This will mark their third road game in four weeks, all of which required cross-country travel. That's right, the Rams traveled to Philly and back in Week 2, Buffalo and back in Week 3, and now Washington and back in Week 5. Speaking of Washington, head coach Ron Rivera recently upgraded at the quarterback position by sending Dwayne Haskins to the bench in favor of Kyle Allen, who has 13 career starts under his belt, not to mention experience playing for Rivera when the two were together in Carolina. An added bonus: Rookie pass-rusher Chase Young was back at practice on Thursday.
Pick: Washington +7
Walder: I bought hard on the Rams' offense early this season -- all the motion, play-action and designed rollouts seem to be helping Jared Goff, and I see no reason why that won't continue. With Washington, the switch to Allen triggers a non-trivial upgrade to its offensive rating -- about 1.5 points -- in FPI's mind. On top of that, these are two of the faster teams in the league in terms of real time between snaps -- Washington and Los Angeles rank fourth- and ninth-fastest in the league. So even with a Washington offense that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, I expect points.
Pick: Over 45
Fulghum: The Rams travel back to the East Coast yet again, but fear not --Sean McVay is 5-1 as Rams head coach in games that start at 1 p.m. ET. With Rivera opting to hand over his offense to the unimpressive Allen, the Rams should have no trouble holding the Washington offense down -- Allen threw 16 interceptions and fumbled 13 times in 13 appearances with the Panthers last season. With Brandon Scherff on IR, there is absolutely no way that the lackluster Washington O-line will be able to contain Aaron Donald -- Donald is tied with Myles Garrett for most pressures in the league (27) despite being double-teamed 16 more times than any other player. The Rams' offense has been transformed into a run-dominant unit in 2020 -- only the Browns and Patriots have attempted more runs this season than the Rams. Goff is no longer throwing the ball 35-40 times a game, like in 2019. But despite that lower pass rate, Cooper Kupp is playing a career-high 87% of snaps and has cleared 6+ targets and 5+ catches in three of four games.
Picks: Rams -7, Washington under 19.5, Goff under 33.5 passing attempts, Kupp over 4.5 receptions
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6, 54)
Bearman: Raise your hand if you're in the business of laying 6 with an 0-4 SU/ATS team that just fired its coach? Didn't think so. Yes, the Texans played one of the hardest schedules possible the first three weeks, facing the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers (a combined 10-1), but they also lost all three games by seven-plus points and then got run out of their own stadium by the previously winless Vikings. Among the many issues the Texans have is their run defense, which is dead last in the NFL, allowing an astounding 181.8 yards per game, 10 yards worse than the next poorest team (Dallas). Enter Jacksonville and rookie running back James Robinson. The Jaguars, while nowhere near the top rushing offense in the league, are still averaging 4.8 rush yards per play, seventh best in the NFL. Even after a good start, the Jags are who we thought they were, a non-playoff team that will struggle to pick up wins. But they are getting close to a touchdown here, against a team yet to show up this season and working with a new coach. ESPN's Mackenzie Kraemer tells us that since 2000, teams that replace their coach midseason are 14-22 ATS in their first game with the interim coach.
Pick: Jaguars +6
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-12, 51 at DraftKings)
Schatz: Shhh ... don't tell anyone, but the Bengals have been ... not half bad? Cincinnati ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings so far, including a surprisingly capable defense that ranks 16th overall. Is that biased by an easy schedule? Nope, Cincinnati's defensive schedule so far comes out as league average. The Bengals played the Chargers and Browns close in their two losses, and of course they have a tie and a win in their past two games. Obviously playing the Ravens is a different story -- they're third overall in DVOA this year -- but 12 points is a big line. And the Bengals may neutralize one of the Ravens' advantages; Baltimore ranks No. 1 in special-teams DVOA, but Cincinnati was No. 1 last year and ranks fourth so far this year.
Pick: Bengals +12
Marks: In Burrow I trust, sporting three consecutive 300-yard passing games. The Bengals are 1-2-1, but their two losses were by a combined eight points. Burrow, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon should produce enough offense to keep this game within two scores. Lamar Jackson has been dealing with a knee injury and stomach issues this week and may not be 100 percent. I'm going to use the Bengals in a two-team tease with the Panthers, who I expect to dominate the Falcons' sorry defense.
Pick: Six-point teaser with Bengals +18 and Panthers +7