Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-0 last week, 3-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-4, 4-8), Anita Marks (4-2, 9-3), Preston Johnson (2-2, 5-5), Mike Clay (0-1, 3-1) and Tyler Fulghum (0-1, 0-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-0, 5-1), Seth Walder (3-2, 7-3) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (4-2, 7-4) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
8:20 p.m. ET game
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)
Johnson: I think this is a relatively strong spot to sell high on the Packers two weeks into the season. Scoring 43 and 42 points back-to-back weeks to start the season will certainly change public perception, but I'm not ready to completely buy in to an Aaron Rodgers revival yet. Rodgers took advantage of depleted defenses in both weeks -- including as many as five in the Lions' secondary who were out with injuries this past Sunday -- but New Orleans is a step up in class. The Saints' loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas is likely contributing to a cheap buy at -3 as well. Even if Michael Thomas misses his second consecutive game, I project the point spread in this matchup to be -5.6. Davante Adams is questionable as well for Green Bay after getting hurt against Detroit, so if he is unable to go then it's an even bigger bargain for us on the Saints.
Pick: Saints -3
1 p.m. ET games
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-6, 47.5)
Kezirian: Are the 2-0 Raiders actually good? Call me skeptical after seeing the Saints look pretty pedestrian without Michael Thomas and Drew Brees looking every bit of his 41 years. I imagine we are going to learn a lot more about Las Vegas in this tough situation, having to travel to Foxborough on a short week and facing the sport's greatest coach. I expect Bill Belichick to remove Raiders standout tight end Darren Waller from Derek Carr's available options. Plus, Belichick is 51-26 ATS in his career off a loss, so I think we get a good version of New England. The guy is a machine. Plus, Cam Newton should thrive against a porous Raiders defense.
Pick: Patriots -6
Fortenbaugh: Belichick off a loss against a Raiders team that is traveling across the country for an early start off a historic win? Sign me up for that. Las Vegas has captured the country's attention after that 34-24 win over New Orleans on Monday night, but the Saints were without Thomas and Brees is nothing more than a game manager at this point in his illustrious career. Remember, despite the 2-0 record, the Raiders rank 26th in total defense and 20th in scoring defense. That spells trouble against Belichick.
Pick: Patriots -6
Marks: The Raiders opened their new home in Vegas with a huge win against the Saints and now have to travel cross country to Foxborough -- on a short work week -- to face a Belichick team. Good luck with that! Meanwhile, the Pats, who are 27-8 after a loss since 2010, will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss at Seattle last Sunday, knowing they have to keep pace with the Bills in the division.
Jon Gruden's offense centers around RB Josh Jacobs, so I envision Belichick eliminating Jacobs from the equation and forcing Carr to try to make plays with a subpar wide receiver corps. Not happening. Lay the points.
Pick: Patriots -6
Johnson: I personally think the side is lined fairly, but my projection for the total is only 45.4. While the Patriots needed to open up the offense through the air as they trailed for the majority of the second half in Seattle, it's evident through the first two weeks that it isn't what Belichick prefers. New England ranks last in the NFL in pass rate on early downs in the first half this season. Oakland ranks 28th. Both teams rank bottom-10 in the league in situation-neutral pace as well.
A shootout in Seattle and a Monday night frenzy in the Las Vegas opener -- combined with the fact that overs are hitting at the third-highest rate we have ever seen through two weeks -- could all be playing a factor in an inflated number here. Considering Waller and Jacobs are on the Oakland injury report and haven't been practicing this week, if either were to miss the matchup on Sunday then my projection would be even lower.
Pick: Under 47.5
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 47)
Fortenbaugh: The Bills can't control their schedule, so let's give credit where credit is due and applaud the team for an impressive 2-0 start. With that disclaimer out of the way, let's get down to business. This is a massive step up in class for Buffalo, which spent its first two NFL Sundays pounding the dreck of the league in the Jets and Dolphins. The Rams present a serious upgrade in coaching, scheming and talent, as evidenced by the whippings Los Angeles put on both Dallas and Philadelphia to open the season. Josh Allen won't have all day in the pocket against Aaron Donald & Co., and the Buffalo defense is set to face a quarterback in Jared Goff who is completing close to 70% of his passes with an insane yards per attempt average of 9.3 through the first two games of the year. Buckle up, Buffalo.
Pick: Rams +2.5
Walder: Stefon Diggs' air yards per target is slightly above average at 11.1, but on average when running a route Diggs is a short 8.1 yards downfield (average is 10.4), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Among receivers who have run at least 40 routes, Diggs has actually run vertical routes (gos, corners, posts, etc.) at the second-lowest rate in the league. To me this says he's being targeted at a disproportionately high rate on his deep targets. Plus, he'll face Jalen Ramsey -- who didn't allow a single reception last week -- at least some of the time on Sunday.
Pick: Diggs longest completion under 24.5
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 45)
Bearman: Sometimes you look at a line and scratch your head, knowing it looks too good to be true, and there are usually reasons why. I still haven't figured this one out, so I am going to take my chances. The Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger back and a stout defense, look like a true contender in the AFC. They did let Jeff Driskel and the Broncos back in the game last Sunday, but they looked very solid in the first half, jumping out to a 17-3 lead.
The NFL didn't do the Texans any favors in scheduling K.C., Baltimore and Pittsburgh as their first three opponents, and the results have matched expectations the first two weeks. I could break down how bad the Texans' defense has been, but they played the Ravens and Chiefs, so let's look at the offense that will have to face that Steelers' defense. DeShaun Watson & Co. rank 24th in total yards per play, and that's with playing from behind in both games. The rushing game is 30th at 84.5 yards per game and now goes up against the league's best rushing defense (2.9 yards per play; 66.5 YPG).
Bill Barnwell has the Texans as the most likely 0-2 team to make the postseason based on the schedule getting easier after this week. Only one 0-3 team has done it since 2002 -- and that was the 2018 Texans. They might have to start there after this week.
Pick: Steelers -4
Schatz: Pittsburgh has been close to the best defense in the league so far this year. However, the Houston defense has had real problems, giving up 67 points (admittedly, to very strong offenses in Kansas City and Baltimore). The offenses in this game have been a little below average so far this year, but based on what we knew before the season, we can probably expect them to be a little above average the rest of the way. The average NFL game has about 45 points, so with the idea that the Pittsburgh defense balances the Houston defense and both offenses are a little above average, I'm going over.
Pick: Over 45
Johnson: I've had more people asking about the move on Houston -- from +6 to as low a +3.5 this week -- than any other game so far this season. My raw number on the game is Steelers -4.4, but accounting for the specific matchup I think it's really conducive to a play on the Pittsburgh side.
The Steelers' pass rush was especially lethal in 2019. They ranked No. 1 in the NFL in adjusted sack rate at 9.7%, and so far this season they're at 11.1%. Do you know which team's offense is dead last in the league, allowing an adjusted sack rate of 11.2% this season? That's right, the Texans. This isn't anything new -- they ranked last in the category in 2018, and 27th in 2019.
This matchup is great for the Steelers. Is the market shading toward a 2019 playoff team that has started 0-2 and is desperate for a win? Possibly. However, I don't know anybody influencing the market who bets on teams based on their motivation. I took a position on Pittsburgh at -3.5 and still recommend a smaller-sized wager at -4 if the 3.5s disappear.
Pick: Steelers -4
San Francisco 49ers (-4, 41.5) at New York Giants
Schatz: The Giants are dealing with injuries (Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard), but that's nothing compared to the avalanche of injuries that hit the 49ers. They'll likely be starting backup quarterback Nick Mullens, and they're without their top players at edge rusher, wide receiver, cornerback and running back. San Francisco will not be at full strength.
At that point, the question becomes where did you have the 49ers before the season began? Our projections had them lower than almost anyone else, expecting some sort of regression on both sides of the ball after the 49ers improved dramatically on both sides in 2019. Combine a lower preseason forecast with a very average performance so far this year and all the injuries, and we actually consider the 49ers a below-average team for this weekend.
The Giants have been horrible on offense, but their defense ranks in Football Outsiders' top 10, and I think that at home they can keep the game close with this hobbled San Francisco team.
Pick: Giants +4
Fortenbaugh: This game has "Pros vs. Joes" written all over it, with the professionals backing Big Blue and the amateurs siding with the defending NFC champions. The injury bug has ravaged the San Francisco locker room this season, rearing its ugly head in Week 2 to claim Pro Bowl pass-rusher Nick Bosa's ACL. With DeForest Buckner in Indianapolis and Bosa on IR, not to mention Dee Ford once again battling a litany of ailments, a big chunk of that dominant pass rush from last season will be missing in action Sunday at MetLife Stadium, giving Giants quarterback Daniel Jones a chance to exploit a highly suspect 49ers secondary. Don't be surprised if the Giants shock the world and win this one outright.
Pick: Giants +4
Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 49.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Bearman: According to our Stats & Info department, teams starting 0-2 ATS over the past five years have covered at a 67.5% rate (25-12) in Week 3. Add the fact that since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014, Minnesota is 33-15-1 ATS at home (.689) -- tops in the NFL over that span -- and 7-3 ATS as a home 'dog, and you have the makings of an upset.
But what about Week 1's ugly loss at home to the Packers? I have not forgotten that and look at this game in the sense that the Vikings can't play any worse than they did the first two weeks and are in a must-win situation for a team that is supposed to make the playoffs. As for the Titans, they are two plays away from being 0-2 on the season. Good teams find ways to win, and that's exactly what the Titans have done. I would not be surprised to see them win again, but I am not ready to lay 2.5-3 on the road just yet.
The Vikings' defense has been rightfully hammered for being terrible the first two weeks (against Green Bay and Indy), but the Titans' defense hasn't fared much better and vs. far weaker offenses in the Jaguars and Broncos. The over could come into play with two struggling defenses, but I'm not sure I want my money on Kirk Cousins leading the Vikings to 30 points, so I'll take the points at home in a virtual must-win and shop/buy to a FG.
Pick: Vikings at +3
Marks: The Vikings' defense has given up 876 total yards through two weeks and now likely will be even worse after losing linebacker Anthony Barr. I can't understand how Minnesota isn't a bigger underdog. The Titans are averaging over 10 yards per pass play on first down, and that's with Ryan Tannehill not having his full arsenal. The Vikings have allowed 280 rushing yards this season, so expect Derrick Henry to post some good numbers this week. I love tight end Jonnu Smith in this matchup and expect him to have a monster day, considering the Vikings' defense allowed a second-string tight end (Mo Alie-Cox) over 100 receiving yards last week.
Pick: Titans -2.5
Walder: The Vikings have looked pretty awful thus far, ranking 30th in overall efficiency -- which is expected points added per play with garbage time down-weighted. But we can't throw out our prior on Minnesota after just two games. And opponent also matters! The two teams that the Vikings have played are both better than the two teams the Titans have played, according to FPI. That's a pretty easy way to create the illusion of a gap between these two teams when there might not be one.
Pick: Vikings +2.5
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7, 45)
Schatz: Baker Mayfield has averaged only 204 passing yards through his first two games and now faces a Washington defense that ranks No. 1 in pass defense DVOA through two weeks. You don't get the advantage of sacks -- this prop is for passing yards, not net passing yards -- but there's still a good chance that the Washington defensive line can hassle Mayfield into less passing success. And given the quality of the Washington offense, there's also a good chance the Browns will be running out the clock in the fourth quarter rather than Mayfield continuing to throw.
Pick: Mayfield under 238.5 passing yards (-110)
Clay: The last time Terry McLaurin fell below 58 receiving yards was in a 57-yard effort against Green Bay in Week 14 last season. He has reached 58 yards in 10 of 16 career games, including six of his past eight. That includes both 2020 games, one of which was a 61-yard effort on seven targets against Darius Slay most of Week 1 and the other a 125-yard effort on 10 targets against Patrick Peterson in Week 2. McLaurin has been on the field for 92% of Washington's pass plays and is handling a 27% target share and 35% share of the air yards. The Browns have allowed 381 yards to wide receivers this season, which is seventh most in the league. McLaurin's projection checks in at 75 yards this week, so this is one I'd be hammering.
Pick: McLaurin over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 46)
Schatz: Philadelphia has had the worst offense of the year so far, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. But our research shows that we should still heavily consider preseason knowledge after just two weeks of the season. So the Eagles' offense is probably better than it has looked so far. The Bengals' defense, on the other hand, is probably not. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have a good but not great defense, so both teams should be able to score some points.
Pick: Over 46
Walder: A.J. Green and DeSean Jackson each rank in the top five in expected completed air yards, based on NFL Next Gen Stats' model. They've also both vastly underperformed those expectations thus far -- which I would be more worried about for an unestablished receiver but less so for these two proven wideouts -- but the stat demonstrates the opportunity they're getting. Add in the fact that they rank 10th and 12th, respectively, in percentage of vertical routes run, and I have to think there's maybe a shade more long completions coming their way than the market expects.
Picks: Green over 50.5 total receiving yards, Jackson longest completion over 23.5.
Johnson: People gave the Eagles a pass after they blew a 17-0 lead to Washington in Week 1 because of the injuries they suffered during the game. But now that a healthier Philadelphia just got blasted at home by the Rams, everybody will be counting out the Eagles; this is when we buy. Folks, the Rams are good. I'm forgiven enough to give the Eagles another pass.
The Browns were laying -6 to the Bengals on Thursday. Cincinnati was short on preparation time and will have extra rest and prep time going into Week 3, but these point spreads imply that the Eagles are sizably worse than the Browns -- I disagree, and make this number closer to -7. Despite the backdoor cover in Cleveland, the Bengals still averaged only 4.0 yards per play on 88 plays. That is far from efficient. I'm not anointing them for that performance, but it seems like the early market has with this move down (there are even some -4s starting to pop up in the market).
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Schatz: Mitchell Trubisky led a big comeback against the Lions and held on to beat the Giants. Yet his numbers for this year are still not that strong. The Bears are who we thought they were: a strong defense with an underwhelming offense. As for the Falcons, their defense is by far the best reason not to pick under on this game. But their offense has also been a little bit disappointing this year. They've scored a lot of points, but against two likely-to-be-poor defenses in Seattle and Dallas.
Pick: Under 47.5
Fortenbaugh: How many people are actually interested in investing hard-earned money on a Falcons squad that tanked a 26-7 lead at Dallas last weekend, which was capped off with the worst attempt at covering an onside kick in NFL history? Well, allow me to answer that question with another question: What has two thumbs and wrote this paragraph that you are currently reading? Answer: this guy. Atlanta finds itself in a 0-2 hole, but Trubisky and his 59.4% completion percentage presents a far easier opponent to contend with than Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, the Bears may be 2-0, but they needed every second of the clock to get by the Lions and Giants, who are two of the worst teams in the NFL.
Pick: Falcons -3
4 p.m. ET games
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, 44)
Fulghum: This game is going to be ugly for Jets fans. Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor is in an absolute sledgehammer smash spot as a more than double-digit favorite at home against a Jets team that has been wrecked by opposing running games. The rookie out of Wisconsin will likely dictate score and pace in this one.
How are the Jets going to contribute more than 6-10 points to this total? Adam Gase still looks lost as a head coach, and the Jets are missing four starters on offense: RB Le'Veon Bell (hamstring), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring), WR Breshad Perriman (ankle) and G Connor McGovern (hamstring). Hammer the under in this game.
Pick: Under 44
Schatz: The danger here is that the Colts will get out to such a big lead that they can run all second half. That's what happened with San Francisco last week against the Jets, when two 49ers' QBs combined for just 202 passing yards. And it's what happened to Philip Rivers last week when he had just 214 passing yards against Minnesota.
But we also have evidence from Week 1, when the Jets allowed 312 passing yards and Rivers threw for 363. At least while the game is competitive, the Jets are a pass funnel defense; last year they ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass but second against the run, and so far this year they are 23rd against the pass but third against the run. (Yes, the Jets rank third despite the 80-yard Raheem Mostert touchdown run; otherwise they've allowed 3.3 yards per carry.) Based on Football Outsiders projections, there's a 76% chance of Rivers beating this prop.
Pick: Rivers over 231.5 passing yards (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 43.5)
Schatz: Don't be thrown off by Austin Ekeler's one catch for 3 yards in Week 1. That was a major outlier for a player who averaged 62 receiving yards per game last season. Fifty-five yards in Week 2 was more like what we can expect from Ekeler. Meanwhile, the Carolina defense has allowed over 24.5 receiving yards to at least one running back in each game so far: 46 yards for Josh Jacobs in Week 1 and 26 yards for LeSean McCoy in Week 2.
Pick: Ekeler over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 55)
Fulghum: Kyler Murray will have another plum spot to upgrade his budding MVP candidacy in the early portion of the season as the Lions bring their toothless defense to the desert. Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky -- yes, that Mitchell Trubisky -- have combined to hang 69 points on the Detroit defense through two weeks. Kliff Kingsbury and Murray have a group that is arguably more explosive than either of those teams. So far, Matt Patricia's defense has mustered up just two sacks and eight QB hits on the season. That won't cut it against Murray.
And it won't be just the Arizona passing attack that is going gangbusters on Sunday. Kenyan Drake is poised for a breakout game as well thanks to a matchup with a defense that so far has allowed 353 rushing yards this season on 6.9 yards per carry.
I fully expect the Cardinals to reach into the 30s or 40s in this game, and while Matthew Stafford will benefit from the likely return of his top receiver, Kenny Golladay, that won't be enough to keep this game within two field goals.
Pick: Cardinals -5.5
Marks: The Lions are expecting Golladay back this week, but that still won't be enough to pull off a win in the desert. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins makes the Cardinals' offense even more legit, and it will face an injured Lions secondary in Week 3. Murray should have success rushing against a Lions defense that has given up over 400 rushing yards so far this season in two games. Detroit's defense has forced zero turnovers this season (and, by the way, they faced Mitchell Trubisky in Week 1). Stafford won't be able to keep up offensively, considering Arizona's defense is stingier this season in the red zone.
Pick: Cardinals -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 43.5) at Denver Broncos
Marks: Since joining Tampa Bay, Leonard Fournette's volume share is over 65% of the Bucs' offensive snaps, and he is getting targeted in the red zone more than any other running back in the NFL. Fournette scored two touchdowns in Week 2, and I see much of the same against a Broncos defense that has allowed success to opposing running backs in each of their first two games.
Pick: Fournette scores TD (+163)
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 56)
Fortenbaugh: Both clubs rank in the bottom 10 in total defense, and both franchises rank in the top 10 in total offense as well as scoring offense. How could this game possibly stay under? I'd love to give you a solid, clearly presented case as to why I'm betting against scoring in this game, but the answer here is extremely simple -- everybody is going to bet this over, just like everybody was betting the over in the Super Bowl. Sometimes I prefer to lurk in the shadows and bet against the majority. Other times, I find myself firmly in the crosshairs of the majority. When it comes to this particular game, it's the former. Keep the clock running!
Pick: Under 56 points