With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, I think the biggest takeaway from a betting perspective is related to totals. Overs are currently 20-12, the third-highest winning rate dating back to 1986. The highest was in 2011, after a lockout that lasted more than five months and ended 10 days before the season started. Teams are averaging 25.2 points per game -- the highest average ever through two weeks, and 2.4 points higher than last season.
Will the overs keep hitting? Possibly. In Week 3 of 2011, this trend came to a screeching halt, with 10 of the 16 games going under. But remember, despite the lack of practices during the lockout, NFL teams still had four preseason games in 2011 to prepare for the regular season. We didn't have any preseason games this year. Considering the high number of injuries around the league as well, it could take another week or two before defenses get up to speed.
I won't blindly look to bet in either direction in Week 3. But there have been a few early moves on totals that I agree with. I'll analyze a couple of sides as well.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 47)
Is this Gardner Minshew's world and we are just living in it? The betting market seems to think so. Before the season began, Jacksonville was widely considered the worst team in the NFL. Two weeks in, the Jaguars are laying three points to a Miami team that hung around in New England and gave Buffalo a scare. Sure, Jacksonville kept up with the Titans in Tennessee and got a surprise win against Indianapolis. But I'm not ready to upgrade them to laying three points in this matchup.
Early openers had this game even with a total of 44, so with my projections coming in at Jaguars -1.3 and 47.1, I disagree with the move on Jacksonville. But I agree with the move up on the total.
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2, 47.5)
The early +3.5 spread was extreme, and I broke it down in our first look Sunday night. But the move on the total from 45 to 47.5 is worth noting as well. Is this Josh Allen the real deal? His 729 passing yards and six touchdowns through two games is eye-popping. But that also came against the Jets and Dolphins. Some sort of regression is expected as the schedule gets more difficult, but it likely isn't a fluke.
Buffalo ran on first down last season at the third-highest frequency in the NFL (38.5%). So far in 2020 they have done so only 27.8% of the time. A pass-heavier offense, taking advantage of play-action and throwing opportunities on first down, will lead to a more efficient offense. The betting markets agree with this move up, and considering how well Sean McVay's offense is flowing (third in the NFL in DVOA, trailing only Green Bay and Seattle), you won't catch me jumping in front of these offenses and playing the under.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 45)
I've had more people asking about the move on Houston, from +6 to +3.5, than any other game so far this season. My number on the game is Steelers -4.4. The -6 was a little high, and the move to -3.5 is probably too much. If this hits -3 at some point later in the week, I will definitely be buying Pittsburgh there.
Why did this spread drop so much? Was Jeff Driskel's performance for the Broncos after Drew Lock was injured that impressive? Remember, the Steelers' pass rush was especially lethal in 2019. They ranked No. 1 in the NFL in adjusted sack rate at 9.7%, and so far this season they're at 11.1%. Do you know which team's offensive line is dead last in the league, allowing an adjusted sack rate of 11.2% this season? That's right, the Texans. This isn't anything new -- they ranked last in this category in 2018, and 27th in 2019.
This matchup is great for the Steelers. I can't explain the line move. Is the market shading toward a 2019 playoff team that has started 0-2 and is desperate for a win? Possibly. However, I don't know anybody influencing the market that bets on teams based on their motivation. It's Pittsburgh or pass for me. The chances that this game reaches -3 seem unlikely, so I may end up with a small position on the -3.5 anyway.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 46)
People gave the Eagles a pass after they blew a 17-0 lead to Washington in Week 1. But now that a healthy Philadelphia just got blasted at home by the Rams, everybody will be counting the Eagles out; this is when we buy. Folks, the Rams are good. I'm forgiving enough to give the Eagles another pass.
The Browns were laying -6 to the Bengals on Thursday. Cincinnati was short on preparation time and will have extra rest and prep time going into Week 3, but these point spreads imply that the Eagles and Browns are equals -- I disagree, and make this number -7. Despite the backdoor cover in Cleveland, the Bengals still averaged only 4.0 yards per play on 88 plays -- that's far from efficient. I'm not anointing them for that performance, but it seems the early market has. Look-ahead lines for this matchup were as high as -7.5 before the week.