Two weeks are in the books, and now the NFL heads to Florida for a matchup between the 0-2 Miami Dolphins and the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Dolphins weren't able to knock off the Bills this past Sunday, falling 31-28. The Jaguars were also in a tight matchup, edged by the Titans 33-30.
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-0 last week, 3-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-4, 4-8) and Anita Marks (4-2, 9-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-0, 5-1) and fantasy expert Mike Clay (0-1, 3-1) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday, unless otherwise noted.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 47.5)
Dolphins +3
Fortenbaugh: Big adjustment here with this game moving from a pick 'em on the look-ahead line last week to Jacksonville -3 as we approach kickoff, putting Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew in the role of favorite for just the fifth time in 15 career starts. I believe this line has moved too far toward Jacksonville given the limited sample of information we have at our disposal this early in the season.
The key to my Dolphins bet is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who completed 65.9% of his passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions against a terrific Bills defense in Week 2. Keep in mind that Fitzpatrick produced that stat line despite being pressured on 18 dropbacks, which ranked third most in the NFL in Week 2 and fourth most in an NFL game this season. Jacksonville lacks a consistent pass rush and has recorded just one sack through two contests. Fitzpatrick feasts and the Dolphins cover.
Over 47.5
Bearman: Against New England, the Dolphins allowed 217 rushing yards, mostly up the middle, allowing Cam Newton and the Patriots' offense short-yardage plays all game on second and third downs. Against Buffalo, the Dolphins allowed Josh Allen to throw for 417 yards and four TDs after cornerback Byron Jones left on the first drive, and also over 100 yards on the ground. Bottom line, Miami hasn't stopped anybody in two games, allowing an astounding 7.2 yards per play. On the other side, while Jacksonville has impressed those who thought they would be in "Tank for Trevor" mode with two close games, it has not been good on defense. The Jaguars are ranked 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 26th in yards per play (6.24), and have allowed 53 points in two games to the Colts and Titans. When you think Miami-Jacksonville, you don't think of two teams lighting up the scoreboard. But with both defenses unable to stop anything, I'd expect the over to hit, like it did last Thursday in the 35-30 Browns-Bengals game.
Jaguars +3 and Over 41.5
Marks: I'm playing this teaser for a number of reasons. Neither defense is anything to write home about, both teams are playing on a short week, and the Dolphins' secondary is hampered by injuries to Byron Jones (groin) and Xavien Howard (knee). Jay Gruden may not be a good head coach, but he sure is a great offensive coordinator, and he has this Jaguars offense ranked in the top five after the first two weeks of the season. Jacksonville is moving the chains on almost 40% of their plays -- meanwhile Miami is allowing almost 15 yards per completion. The Jags are 4-0 ATS at home on Thursday nights, and are simply the better team heading into Week 3.
Minshew over 1.5 TD passes (-150)
Kezirian: The mustache and jorts understandably command the headlines, but Minshew is actually a respectable (and perhaps even good?) NFL quarterback. As colleague Mina Kimes pointed out on Twitter, he ranks third in completion percentage above expectation -- behind only MVP betting favorite Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson. Given the small sample size, everyone is anticipating significant regression, but why are so many people automatically dismissing him? Is it because of his goofiness? I think that's myopic and premature. Mike Leach taught him well and sings his praises. This guy might be around for a long time.
As for this particular matchup, the Dolphins rank dead last in opponent passer rating, having allowed Josh Allen and Cam Newton to carve them up. Now, Miami also struggles against the run and Jacksonville has exceeded expectations with its rushing attack, but I still think Minshew will do some damage. I lean to the over 1.5 TD passes.
Marks: I'm still the president of the Minshew fan club, and Minshew-mania has never been stronger considering he tossed three touchdowns in each of his first two games. I expect more of the same on Thursday, especially against a depleted Dolphins secondary. #FearTheStache
Minshew under 34.5 pass attempts (-105)
Clay: Minshew has been on the field for at least 80% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps in 15 career games. He's finished below 35 pass attempts during 10 of those outings. The Jaguars rank eighth in pass rate so far in 2020, but note that they've trailed on 93% of their offensive snaps (second highest). Jay Gruden has actually called a balanced offense once we adjust for game script, and Jacksonville is favored (we can't say that often) this week at home against Miami. Opposing offenses have called pass a league-low 50% of the time so far against the struggling Dolphins. Minshew's projection is 31.3 attempts.
Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (+100) and over 16.5 receiving yards (-100)
Clay: Gaskin has played 62% of Miami's offensive snaps this season, but the second-year back has handled only 36% of the team's designed rushing attempts (8.0 per game). Gaskin has instead focused more on the passing game (5.5 targets per game), which has helped him to four catches for 26 yards against New England in Week 1 and six catches for 36 yards against Buffalo last week. Chan Gailey has called a balanced game so far, but with the Dolphins a 3-point underdog this week, the expectation is that they'll need to throw a little more than they would prefer (as usual). Gaskin's projection checks in at 3.2 receptions for 26.6 yards.
Isaiah Ford over 3.5 receptions (+140)
Marks: I love the matchup more than anything, as Ford will be facing D.J. Hayden out of the slot. Ford had nine targets from Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2 against a good Bills secondary and still posted seven receptions for 76 yards. I expect more of the same on Thursday, with a more favorable matchup considering Hayden can be had at will.