Besides the topic of home-field advantage without fans in the stands (colleague Doug Kezirian broke that down well here), the question of whether NFL offenses would be rusty in Week 1 was a hot topic in both betting and media circles the past few weeks. It was a unique offseason, of course, with less than ideal practice conditions and the cancellation of preseason games.
My concern was that there could be rustiness on defense as well. There are plenty of new players across the majority of defenses. Plus, picking angles and tackling the best athletes in the world at game speed without much of a warm-up seems like a daunting task.
We don't have an exact historical comparison to the start of this season, but the closest one is 2011, following the NFL lockout that lasted more than five months. The lockout ended 10 days before preseason games began in early August. Note that teams played preseason games that year, and defenses still struggled relative to betting-market expectations. Overs hit in 23 of the 32 games in Weeks 1 and 2 that season -- a 72% clip.
In Week 1 of 2020 thus far, overs have come through in nine of 14 games. We're working with a small sample, but it's good to have this on your radar. I decided to be cautious betting any unders to start this season, and I'll likely take the same approach in Week 2 (though Bengals-Browns at 45 on Thursday is awfully enticing to go under). On the flip side, if I show an edge to the over in any totals this week, then I will be jumping to bet them.
Here is an early look at two totals I project to be too low in Week 2. (Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.)
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47.5)
The Minnesota defense looks like it has taken a giant step back this season after giving up 43 points to Green Bay. The Vikings looked especially bad in the secondary, as Aaron Rodgers threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns. Everyone will talk about Indianapolis' loss to Jacksonville, but the Colts' offense was able to move the ball just fine -- in fact, the Colts didn't punt once in the game. The Colts outgained the Jaguars by more than 200 yards, and they had 10 more first downs. Two Philip Rivers interceptions and two more turnovers on downs wound up being the difference, but this certainly isn't an offense I'm worried about against the Vikings' defense. On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis allowed Gardner Minshew II to throw for three touchdowns on 19-for-20 passing.
You never want to overreact to a single game, but I think an adjustment to my Minnesota priors was warranted. My projection for this matchup in Week 2 is 49.6.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)
If the betting market closed with a Cowboys-Rams total of 52 on Sunday night, I'm surprised to see this one at just 50. I'm sure the much-hyped Dallas offense's scoring just 17 points is playing a part, but there were multiple drives that stalled in opposition territory. The Falcons' defense still appears to be worse than the Rams', and check out the box score from Atlanta's loss to Seattle. The Falcons gained more than 500 yards but went for it on fourth down on four occasions and didn't convert a single one. They had two turnovers on top of that.
I'm still bullish on the Cowboys' offense, especially in this matchup. (Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams' secondary ninth in the NFL and the Falcons' secondary 30th entering the season). If I bet over 51 in Cowboys-Rams, I can't be sitting on the sideline here after one undesirable result.
Other notable lines
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6, 45)
Sure, Cleveland losing 38-6 to Baltimore in Week 1 requires us to step back and reevaluate the Browns -- honestly, we should always be reevaluating the Browns. However, a quick box score autopsy points to Cleveland's playing much better than the final score indicated. Now the Browns are facing a rookie quarterback in his first road game on an extra-short week, backed by one of the worst defenses in the league. That isn't a recipe for success.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 47.5)
The Lions suffered injuries to their secondary in their loss to the Bears on Sunday. We will find out the severity of those injuries in the coming days, but I project the spread in this game to be closer to -6.5. Now we're expecting a team that just gave up 21 straight points to Mitchell Trubisky in the fourth quarter in its home opener to travel to Lambeau and stay close to the Packers? The Lions might, and they will certainly try. But if they are hampered again defensively, this number is going to move, and I suspect it might anyway. Remember: Detroit's Kenny Golladay was inactive in Week 1 and is a question for Week 2.
EARLY WEEK 2 LINES (at completion of Sunday night game)
Thursday
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6, 45)
Sunday
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 43)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 47.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-11, 43)
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3. 47.5)
Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 42) at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers (-7, 43.5) at New York Jets
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48)
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 43)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, 48.5)
Washington Football Team at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 45.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 50) at Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 53) at Houston Texans
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4, 44)
Monday
New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders