Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season will wrap up with the now traditional "Monday Night Football" doubleheader.
The New York Giants will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an interconference matchup, followed by an AFC battle between the Denver Broncos and the Tennessee Titans.
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, and Seth Walder of ESPN analytics have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 45.5) at New York Giants
Steelers -5.5
Marks: This is my favorite bet of Week 1. The Steelers have arguably the best defense in the NFL and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, while the Giants are adjusting to changes at head coach and both coordinator spots. Mike Tomlin is 16-2 on Monday nights, and Joe Judge ... well, this is his first game. Pittsburgh's defense was a turnover machine last season, at almost 20% of opponents' possessions, while Daniel Jones turned the ball over on almost 20% of his offensive possessions. The Steelers led the league in sacks last season with 54, and I'm not expecting rookie left tackle Andrew Thomas to win the battle against T.J. Watt. This game will get ugly early, and we will be counting the minutes until the Titans and Broncos kick off.
Daniel Jones under 243.5 passing yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: The Steelers ranked fifth in total defense, third in passing defense and sixth in scoring defense last season despite ranking 26th in time of possession. Translation: this unit is incredible, no matter how long you leave them on the field. Good luck to Jones, who is making just his 13th career start and now under the guidance of a rookie head coach. Oh, and I'd be remiss if I failed to mention that the Giants' suspect offensive line will have the daunting task of blocking a Steelers pass rush that led the NFL in sacks last season.
Giants first team to turn over the ball (-129)
Kezirian: I understand Ben Roethlisberger is back and tends to throw risky passes, but I also think the Steelers' defense is far superior to the Giants'. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a ball-hawk and Pittsburgh's pass rush should be able to exploit a New York offensive line that still has issues. Both of those factors make me believe the Giants' inexperienced quarterback Daniel Jones will cough up the ball.
Tennessee Titans (-3, 41.5) at Denver Broncos
Broncos +3
Walder: This is another FPI+ selection, but I also think it's awfully logical to fade Tennessee. The lasting image of the Titans during the offseason was a team that reached the AFC championship game, but they were only the 11th-best squad in the league according to our efficiency metrics. FPI thinks Tennessee is now just the 16th-best team in the league, and just a tenth of a point better than the Broncos on a neutral field. The Week 1 discrepancy with the line is surprising, because FPI is largely based on the win total betting market in the preseason. Don't sleep on the Jack Conklin loss, either: Conklin ranked eighth among offensive tackles in pass block win rate last season.