Although the sports world is on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, it doesn't mean we can't look ahead to a time when there is college football again.
Caesars Sportsbook just released season win totals and conference title odds for every FBS team, and our experts -- Bill Connelly, David Hale, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele -- are here to give their best bets for teams from the Group of 5 schools.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
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AAC | Conference USA | MAC | Mountain West | Sun Belt | Independents
AAC championship best bets
Navy Midshipmen (6-1)
Steele: I have four teams winning six or more games in American conference play this year: UCF (+200), Cincinnati (+250), Memphis (+225) and Navy (+600). The Midshipmen have the best odds in that group and one of head coach Ken Niumatalolo's most experienced teams with 13 returning starters, their most in five years. Navy had a 292-98 yardage edge at the half at Memphis last year and get the Tigers at home this year in the game that could decide the West division. QB Malcolm Perry is a significant loss, but Niumatalolo has done an excellent job replacing QBs in the past.
Houston Cougars (60-1)
Hale: There's no clear-cut favorite here, but there are plenty of solid contenders, so I'm taking a flier on a big turnaround at Houston. Dana Holgorsen knows how to win, there's finally some stability in the program and there are a ton of luck-based metrics pointing in the Cougars favor this season. Yes, they'll need some help from UCF, Memphis, Navy and Cincinnati, but at 60-1, it's an enticing roll of the dice.
AAC season win totals
Tulsa Golden Hurricane over 4.5 wins (+105)
Steele: Last year, Tulsa led powerful SMU 30-9 in the fourth quarter but lost in OT. Tulsa outgained a strong Cincinnati team 377-317 but came up short. Tulsa had a 584-498 yardage edge but missed a game-winning 29-yard field goal as time expired left in a one-point loss to Memphis. With QB Zach Smith one of nine starters back on offense, this is head coach Phillip Montgomery's best team since his 10-3 squad in 2016. I think they finally get back to a bowl.
Houston Cougars over 5.5 (+130)
Steele: The number makes sense as the Cougars have road games versus Washington State, Memphis, BYU, Navy, Cincinnati and SMU. Houston also hosts UCF and could very well be an underdog in seven games. This year's Cougar squad has a lot of talent and experience with 19 returning starters and returns some players that redshirted last year. I believe the Cougars will pull off a couple of upsets and get back to a bowl game for the seventh time in eight years.
Hale: Perhaps my favorite win total pick of the year at the moment, every luck metric seems to be pointing toward a big step forward for Houston in 2020. Last year, the Cougars were thrown into the fire with a first-year coaching staff and a star QB who decided to sit out. Stability will be a huge asset this time around. Then look at the numbers. Houston was 1-5 in home/neutral site games last year, third-worst in FBS. The Cougars were 1-3 in games decided by a TD. They had the 102nd worst red zone TD rate on offense and the 127th-worst on defense. In points-off-turnover margin, they saw a 91-point swing in the wrong direction from 2018 to 2019. All those metrics tend to even out the following year, which is a lot of regression to the mean for one team, and I'd be shocked if Houston doesn't go bowling in 2020.
Memphis Tigers under 10 (-145)
Steele: Last year I was a huge Memphis fan as I picked them to get to a New Year's Day Six bowl game, and they did, playing in the Cotton Bowl. This year they are talented once again but faced only one bowl squad on the road last year and lost that game at Temple. This year they have to face SMU, Cincinnati, Navy and Tulane on the road and host a UCF squad that looks like the strongest team in the league. The Tigers also have a tricky road game at Purdue.
Johnson: This line and price surprise me. The Tigers had 17 seniors graduate, and former head coach Mike Norvell is now at Florida State. The Tigers overachieved in the sense that they carried the fourth-largest discrepancy in the entire country last season between actual wins (12) and second-order wins (9.8). Second-order wins are luck-adjusted win expectations based on the team's advanced statistics.
In a really strong season, again, Memphis is going to reach 10 wins. Eleven or more wins is the absolute top end of its win distribution, however, so with pushes on 10s and wins on everything else, this is going to be a profitable proposition even with the -145 price tag.
East Carolina Pirates over 3.5 (+115)
Connelly: ECU's schedule is an exercise in the difference between odds and 1s and 0s. SP+ projects the Pirates as a favorite in only one game in 2020 ... but projects them to win an average of 4.6 because they have a win probability between 33% and 47% in eight of the 11 projected losses. Fun trick, right? Regardless, it gives them a 75% chance of clearing the 3.5-win bar, and considering the +115 odds give you even more cushion, this feels, from a math standpoint, like one of the safest bets on the board.
C-USA championship best bets
UAB Blazers (3-1)
Steele: Bill Clark is doing a fantastic job with UAB, and last year on paper, it looked like an obvious rebuilding year with just seven starters back overall -- but the Blazers got to the C-USA title game. This year he has 18 returning starters with almost all the key players returning. With a veteran squad in 2018, UAB won the C-USA. With FAU losing head coach Lane Kiffin and plenty of key players, I would make UAB a slight favorite to win the conference.
Marshall Thundering Herd (7-1)
Hale: The favorites -- FAU, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech -- all have some numbers predicting a fall back to earth in 2020, which is why I'm high on Marshall (+700). The Thundering Herd won eight games last year, including beating all three of the teams mentioned above, return their starting QB and a 1,000-yard rusher and should have a marginally easier schedule this time around.
C-USA season win totals
Rice Owls under 5.5 wins (+140)
Steele: There is no doubt that Mike Bloomgren has this Owls team pointed in the right direction. Last year Rice had four losses by eight points or less and won its final three games and now has a veteran squad with 17 returning starters. There are a lot of reasons for optimism until you look at the schedule. Rice faces Houston, LSU, and Army in the nonconference slate and pulls both Marshall and Middle Tennessee out of the East division. I have the Owls as an underdog in eight games with one toss-up.
Connelly: There is a growing amount of -- I guess "hype" probably isn't the right word -- but we'll say optimism surrounding Bloomgren's Rice program. The Owls looked legitimately decent late last season, and their defense is extremely experienced, etc. I would feel more optimistic if they had their QB and more of their line returning, though. And if they weren't scheduled to play four teams projected in the SP+ top 75 (three away from home). SP+ projects an average of 4.9 wins and gives them a 66% chance of hitting the under; with the under at +140 and a break-even point of 34%, that's seems like a solid bet to me.
UAB over 8 (-125)
Steele: Clark got to double-digit wins the one year he had a veteran squad. This year, he has his most veteran team yet with 18 returning starters, including QB Tyler Johnson, RB Spencer Brown, 1,000-yard WR Austin Watkins, and his top five tacklers on defense. Four of the Blazers road games are against teams that had losing records last year. I have UAB a favorite in 10 games with one toss-up game.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over 5.5 (-105)
Steele: Last year, 4-8 Middle Tennessee had zero returning starters on the offensive line, lost its long-time QB, and faced a tough schedule including Big Ten powers Michigan and Iowa. This year the Blue Raiders have a veteran offensive line and QB, and the schedule lightens up (no ranked teams on the slate). Four of the six road opponents had a losing record last year. The Blue Raiders are one of my stock market teams as before last year they had been bowl eligible each of the previous seven years. I have Middle Tennessee favored in seven games with two toss-up games.
Old Dominion over 3 (+120)
Connelly: On one hand, it's hard to put too much faith in a not only a new head coach, but a first-time head coach, to make too much headway with a new team without spring ball or basically any normalcy whatsoever this season. On the other hand, three wins is a pretty low bar. SP+ projects ODU to beat Hampton and basically go 2-2 in home games against FIU and MTSU and road games against UConn and UTSA. The Monarchs average 4.4 wins in all and are given just a 9% chance of falling beneath the 3-win bar.
Charlotte 49ers over 5 (-110)
Connelly: Will Healy's 49ers should have one of the best offenses in the conference and face a schedule with five home games against teams projected 103rd or worse in SP+. Granted, they're only projected 100th themselves because of a sketchy defense, but with three likely wins and at least four relative toss-ups, the path to five wins is pretty easy. In fact, SP+ gives them a 67% chance of hitting at least six. Good odds there.
Marshall over 6 (-110)
Johnson: This one is fairly straightforward for me. The Thundering Herd return the majority of a formerly young defense that still finished the 2019 campaign ranked 54th in opponent yards per play (top 25 each of the prior two years). They add two transfers that should impact them positively on that side of the ball as well. Offensively, QB Isaiah Green and RB Brenden Knox are back in their third seasons behind five senior linemen.
This team won eight games last season, and while that was above expectations looking back at their second-order wins, they're still at the very least a six-win team again (my early projections have them winning seven or more games 59.3% of the time). With pushes on the six in our pocket, this is an extremely worthwhile wager at the price of -110.
MAC championship best bets
Buffalo Bulls (5-1)
Steele: The two top teams in the MAC this year look to be Buffalo (+500) and Ohio (+350). Last year Buffalo had a young team, but in its three MAC losses, the team was plus-88 yards per game, but blew second-half leads to Miami (OH) and Ohio and then a 27-6 fourth-quarter lead against Kent State. The Bulls return a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, a now-veteran QB, as well as eight starters back on offense and defense. They had the MAC's top defense last year, allowing just 279 yards per game in MAC play and allowed only 2.9 yards per carry rushing.
Hale: This is really a process of elimination. I expect regression from Ball State (huge turnover luck), Miami Ohio (5-0 in one-possession games last year) and Ohio (lots of red zone luck), while Kent State and Central Michigan both feel a bit ahead of schedule and might not be ready to win the league. Where's that leave us? Let's go with the team with the best head coach, and that's Buffalo. At +500, the payout is solid, and the Bulls finished 2019 red hot. Their two losses after Oct. 1 were by a combined four points, while their six wins were by an average of 26 points.
MAC season win totals
Northern Illinois Huskies under 5.5 wins (-180)
Steele: I have NIU an underdog at Maryland, at Iowa and home to BYU in nonconference games, which means to beat this number the Huskies have to win five MAC games. NIU figures to be stronger this year, but last year in the final four games were minus-154 yards per game. QB Ross Bowers is back but had just a 7-8 ratio last year, and NIU's defense allowed 5.0 yards per carry. I have the Huskies as an underdog in eight games this year.
Toledo Rockets over 6.5 (-110)
Steele: Toledo was the only bowl-eligible team that did not go to a bowl game last season. Last year Toledo was the preseason favorite to win the West, and the over/under win total was eight. This is a team that has had the MAC's top recruiting class for four straight years and is arguably, the most talented team in the MAC. I like the new hire of defensive coordinator Vince Kehres, who was Mount Union's head coach and went 95-6 in his seven years there. Before 2019 this team had won seven or more games for nine straight years.
Ohio Bobcats over 8.5 (+105)
Steele: Frank Solich is the career leader in wins in the MAC, but he and Bobcats are still chasing their first MAC title since 1968. In the past four years, Ohio has averaged less than 12 returning starters but has a veteran squad this year with 15 returning starters. The team loses Nathan Rourke, but his younger brother Kurtis figures to take over and is ahead of where Nathan was as a redshirt freshman. Ohio has a veteran offensive line and their top RB as well as their top eight receivers back for a solid supporting cast. Ohio had four losses by three points or less last year and was plus-108 yards per game in MAC play.
Ball State Cardinals under 6 (+105)
Hale: There's reason for optimism for Ball State, which finished last year with a big win over Miami Ohio and looked much more competitive down the stretch even in its losses. But here's the number that sticks out for me: The Cardinals saw a whopping 107-point positive swing in points-off-turnover margin from 2018 to 2019; only Louisville was better. There's simply not much history of a stat like that being repeatable, so rather than see some of those close losses turn into wins this year, it's more likely the margins simply get bigger as less turnover luck goes their way.
Akron Zips over 2 (-110)
Connelly: Hello, low bar. Granted, Akron came up two wins short of two wins last year, but the defense should be semi-competitive and the offense almost literally can't get worse than it was in 2019. And most importantly, the Zips managed to fit not only a rebuilding FCS team (Youngstown State) but also three of the five worst projected teams in FBS on the home schedule. SP+ ranks them only 125th but still gives them an 84% chance of winning at least three games. That's how easy this schedule is. This would be a best bet candidate if the odds were -170 or something wild, much less -110.
Mountain West championship best bets
Nevada Wolf Pack (20-1)
Steele: I feel that Boise State is the best team in the Mountain West, but it is -225, so I will go with the value play here. Nevada is one of just two teams in the West Division to have the same head coach as last year, and Jay Norvell enters year four fresh off back to back bowl appearances. Nevada has 17 returning starters, which is the most in the conference, and I feel it will get to the Mountain West title game. The team faced Boise State in 2018 and only lost by four points, and with Norvell's best team yet, the 20-1 odds are quite attractive.
Boise State Broncos (-225)
Hale: Normally I'm not a fan of taking the easy money, but Boise State (-225) feels like a near lock. Air Force and San Diego State both scream regression for myriad reasons, while the Broncos return burgeoning star QB Hank Bachmeier, their top three rushers and a veteran defense littered with seniors. No, there's not much return on the investment with Boise State, but it's as safe a bet as you'll find.
Mountain West season win totals
UNLV Rebels under 3.5 wins (-185)
Steele: Tony Sanchez did leave UNLV in much better shape than it was in when he took over back in 2015. UNLV has topped 3.5 wins in each of the past four years, but this looks like a rebuilding year with a tough schedule. UNLV has just four starters back on defense and a first-time head coach. The Rebels will be an underdog in all four nonconference games as they face California, Louisiana Tech, Arizona State and Iowa State. The Mountain West schedule is not any easier, and the Rebels figure to be favored in just one or two games this season.
Nevada over 6.5 (-145)
Steele: Nevada has been to back-to-back bowl games and is one of two teams in the West Division to have the same head coach as last year. Nevada has a very manageable road slate, as five of the six teams that it faces away from home had losing records last year. This is Jay Norvell's best team yet, and in the past two years, the Wolf Pack has topped 6.5 wins after just 11 games. I have the Wolf Pack favored in eight games with two additional toss-up games.
Under (+125)
Hale: Nevada is one of those teams that made nothing look easy in 2019 but managed to find ways to win. That's laudable, but it's just not sustainable. The Wolf Pack were 5-1 in one-possession games, scored an unlikely win over a Power 5 foe and finished with seven wins despite ranking 112th in points-per-drive in 2019. Against FBS foes, Nevada was ahead or trailing by less than a TD just 56.7% of the time. No other team at less than 60% won more than five games, while Nevada won seven. That luck runs out in 2020.
Fresno State Bulldogs over 6 (-105)
Hale: It's hard to say that Fresno State was bad last year. By most key metrics, the team was about average. Same, too, with even the luck-based stats like red zone performance and turnover margins. By almost every metric, the Bulldogs were in the meat of the bell curve. And then there's close-game performance. That's where things get ugly for Fresno State. The Bulldigs lost seven games by 10 points or less, most in the country. On 82% of their drives vs. FBS opponents, they were within a TD or ahead, yet they won just three of those games. Comparatively, Boise State was just 2 percentage points better and had 11 FBS wins. So if close-game luck shifts just a tad -- from 1-7 in 10-point games to, say, 4-3, the Bulldogs hit the over with ease.
Sun Belt championship best bets
Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-1)
Hale: There's not much to be made off the two favorites, App State (+140) and Louisiana (+175), but of the two, I prefer the Cajuns. The more intriguing option might be Arkansas State (+600), which was the epitome of good offense/bad defense last year, scoring on 41% of drives in Group of 5 games (just a tick behind App State), but allowing points on 39% (about the same as woeful Old Dominion). Given all the distractions last season, along with a new defensive coordinator, there's reason to think enough improvement could come in 2020 to put the Red Wolves over the top.
Sun Belt season win totals
Arkansas State over 6 wins (-110)
Steele: Last year, the Red Wolves had just 12 returning starters and were breaking in a new QB. They are a more experienced unit this year with two veteran QB's in Logan Bonner, and Layne Hatcher, and 14 starters return overall. Blake Anderson has done a great job in Statesboro. When he took over, he was the fifth head coach here in five years and has guided the team to at least seven wins in each of his six seasons. The schedule is not easy, and they face both league powers Appalachian State and Louisiana on the road along with Memphis and Michigan, but I have them favored in seven games with two toss-ups.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers over 4.5 (-135)
Steele: Last year, 90 of Coastal's 125 players were underclassmen with 53% freshmen, the third-highest number in the country. Coastal beat Kansas on the road and had four losses by three points or less, but still got to five wins. The Chanticleers only lose 10 seniors from last year's squad and have 14 returning starters. While Coastal was an FCS team up until 2017, it is interesting to note that this team has been around 16 years, and only once have they won fewer than five games.
Appalachian State Mountaineers under 10 (-190)
Hale: It's doubtful the Mountaineers fall off a cliff in 2020. Too much groundwork has been built in Boone over the years. But any team on its third coach in as many years should be worried about maintaining greatness, and getting to 10 wins in the regular season feels like a stretch. With road dates at Wake Forest and Wisconsin, App needs to win at least one of those to even match the number. If they lose both, they team will need a perfect Sun Belt run for a push. Then remember that the Mountaineers had just nine turnovers last year -- a product of playing with a lead and a terrific running back in Darrynton Evans (now off to the NFL) -- a stat that might be a little tougher to replicate this season.
Independents season win totals
Liberty Flames under 7 wins (+125)
Steele: Hugh Freeze did a great job last year taking Liberty to a bowl game in its first year of full FBS play and finishing 8-5. He had a veteran squad last year with 15 returning starters, including Stephen "Buckshot" Calvert at QB. This year Calvert and his star WR Antonio Gandy-Golden depart along with 1,000-yard RB Frankie Hickson. Liberty has just five starters back on each side of the ball. Last year the Flames beat two FCS teams and had four wins over FBS teams that all won two or fewer games. This year the schedule is tougher with six bowl teams.
Army Black Knights over 7 (+130)
Hale: Last year, Army was within a TD or ahead on 80.2% of its offensive drives against FBS opponents, but managed just three FBS wins. Compare that to Nevada, which was within a TD or ahead just 57% of the time, but managed twice as many FBS wins. Army's turnover luck was awful last year, too. Option teams, in general, don't create many turnover chances on offense, but the Black Knights finished in the red in turnover margin last season after being plus-15 in the two prior years combined. Army saw a 64-point decline in its points-off-turnover margin, which is a virtual lock to swing in the other direction in 2020. Add in six losses by nine points or less, and the difference between the 5-8 team of 2019 and an 8-4 team this year isn't as wide as it might seem.
UMass Minutemen under 2 (-115)
Johnson: I don't see a world where the Minutemen go from arguably the worst team in the history of college football to three-plus wins. UMass officially graded out as the worst team I have ever seen in my lifetime. The Minutemen currently project to be underdogs in all 12 games this season, including a home FCS matchup against Albany (I even expect to see the Minutemen get double-digits there). Their lone win against Akron in 2019 was at home as a nine-point underdog, and now they have to face an improved Akron team on the road this time around in what could be the revenge game of the year (I'm kidding, but Akron wound up winless).
This bet will push at a fairly high frequency, but I have UMass going winless or winning just one game more often than they wind up winning three or more.