We've reached the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and fantasy's Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's slate of games.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
Sunday's games
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 51)
Johnson: What interests me most in this matchup is the total after it was bet up from 48.5 at open to the current number of 51. My projection is 50.3, but that takes the entirety of the teams' season data into account. The Chiefs' defense played phenomenally in the final six games, allowing 11.5 points per game (23.9 per game allowed in the 10 games prior). This is a defense that ranked 27th overall and 30th against the run six weeks into the season. Teams were running all over Kansas City to the tune of 148.1 yards per game. In the six-game stretch, however, the Chiefs have given up 95 yards per game on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, J.J. Watt's return for the Texans proved effective. Not only had their run defense suffered since his injury in Week 9, but their pass rush win rate also dropped from 45% with Watt on the field to 27% with him off (league average is 42%). If I were to parse out Houston's defensive outputs from the games in which Watt played and combined them with the Kansas City defense from the final six weeks of the regular season, my new over/under projection would be only 46.6. I always give some credence to the season-long data, but I also want to weigh recency and account for Watt's presence effectively as well. At 51, this is a buy on the under for me.
Pick: Under 51
Bearman: No one is a fan of laying double digits in the playoffs, but the numbers are better than you think. Dating back to the 2010 playoffs, the past seven teams to lay 10-plus points in the postseason all covered the number. The seven teams were all at home and won by an average of 19.1 points per game. Five of the seven were in the same situation as the Chiefs, hosting a divisional round game off a bye.
You can find some 9.5s out there as well (shop for them), and should the number drop to 9, the numbers are almost as good. Since 2011, favorites of at least nine points are 8-2 ATS in the playoffs.
Now that I have gotten over the fear of laying the big number, I look at the matchup and am just not inspired by the Texans. It took a wild comeback and numerous Bills miscues to even make it to this game, and that was against a Josh Allen-led Buffalo team -- not Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I am not going to ignore the fact that the Texans went into Kansas City and won in October, but this is a different Chiefs team. OT Eric Fisher missed that game, and Mahomes was hobbled. K.C. covered its last six games of the season, averaging 27.8 PPG and, more impressively, held opponents to 11.5 PPG over that stretch. In the last two playoff games, the Texans have scored zero first-half points, not a recipe for keeping pace with the Chiefs' offense. Houston struggled to 360 total yards last week, and that was in nearly five quarters of work. Andy Reid is in his favorite spot -- off a bye. He is 18-9 ATS and 22-5 outright off a bye week in his career, including the playoffs.
Pick: Chiefs -10 (plenty of 9.5s out there)
Clay: Despite operating on the short end of a committee throughout most of 2019, Williams has reached 76 scrimmage yards in eight of 17 games since first taking on a significant offensive role for Kansas City in Week 14 of 2018. That includes each of Williams' past four full games (he posted yardage totals of 128, 109, 92 and 154 during those outings). Since returning from injury in Week 16, Williams has played 68 snaps, compared to 39 combined for the team's other running backs. Williams racked up 28 carries and 10 targets during the two games. The Texans, meanwhile, allowed the fifth-most scrimmage yards to running backs during the regular season. Efficiency was a major issue, as they surrendered 4.6 yards per carry (seventh worst) and 7.6 yards per target (second worst). Thirteen backs reached 76 scrimmage yards against them, including Devin Singletary, who managed 134 in last week's wild-card game. Williams' projection comes in at 90 yards.
Pick: Damien Williams over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Kelce reached 72 receiving yards in nine of 16 regular-season games. Volume was a big reason for the successful campaign, as he handled 8.4 targets per game (25% team target share). Kelce ended the regular season first among tight ends in snaps, pass routes, targets, receptions and OTD. The latter is notable, as Kelce was a bit unlucky in the scoring department. He found the end zone six times (fourth among tight ends), but his 7.9 OTD was first and his nine end zone targets ranked fourth. Houston, meanwhile, allowed the eighth-most yardage (898) and 10th-most touchdown catches (six) to tight ends during the regular season. Kelce's projection comes in at 83.6 yards and, with a 57% chance to reach the end zone, his touchdown prop is intriguing at +120.
Pick: Travis Kelce YES will score a touchdown (+120) and Kelce over 71.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Watson has thrown for at least 255 yards in eight of his 16 games this season, while seven teams have reached 255 yards against Kansas City. On its own, that would suggest this one is a bit of a toss-up. Of course, game script is the key variable here as the Texans are 10-point underdogs at the No. 2-seeded Chiefs. Likely to be playing from behind, Watson will get a few extra pass attempts (he's projected for 36 after averaging 32.5 during the regular season). Watson has reached 279 yards in all five games in which he attempted 34 passes so far this season and he has thrown for at least 268 yards in eight of the 10 games in which he attempted at least 30 passes. His projection comes in at 272 yards.
Pick: Watson over 254.5 pass yards (-110)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5, 47)
Youmans: Russell Wilson is getting points on the road, where the Seahawks are 8-1 this season, and that probably looks appealing to most bettors. Seattle figures to be the hot public 'dog of the weekend. I like hot dogs, especially chili dogs, but I try to avoid public 'dogs when betting the NFL.
The Seahawks finished the regular season 11-5 with a plus-7 point differential, so their ability to win one-score games has been unusually impressive. Most of the success in close games is due to Wilson, who played like the league MVP for most of the season. But the Seahawks went 1-3 down the stretch before grinding out an ugly wild-card win against an injury-riddled Eagles team.
Seattle is without its top two running backs -- Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny -- and has yet to see much production from Marshawn Lynch. Much more is riding on the shoulders of Wilson, who is 0-3 in his career at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers is not in great form, but he's still one of the best at avoiding turnovers (four interceptions in 569 pass attempts) and making big plays when it matters most. The Packers' 13-3 record is somewhat phony, but they have a situational edge with the Seahawks on the road for the second straight week. The home team has won the past eight meetings between Seattle and Green Bay, and home teams are 25-7 straight up in the divisional round in the past eight seasons.
The Packers should control the flow with the more effective running attack, and their defense should be able to focus more attention on Wilson, who is showing signs of wearing down.
Pick: Packers -4
Fortenbaugh: The Packers' meager plus-63 point differential raises some serious questions when it comes to evaluating the merits of their 13-3 record, but the Seahawks are a house of cards set to topple at any moment -- and that moment comes Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Seattle is an unbelievable -- and unsustainable -- 11-1 in one-score games this season, owns a highly suspicious plus-7 point differential (14th in the NFL), is depleted at several key positions due to injury and ranks 26th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense. Heck, these guys barely beat Philadelphia's practice squad at Lincoln Financial Field last Sunday. Green Bay wins and covers before bowing out at San Francisco next weekend.
Pick: Packers -4
Clay: Eight running backs reached 19 touches against Seattle during the regular season and those backs put up yardage totals of 184, 175, 161, 139, 139, 113, 102 and 82. Will Aaron Jones reach 19 touches in this game? He has a decent shot considering he did so seven times during the regular season, including during three of Green Bay's final four games. Volume isn't a major concern for him, as Jones ranked 10th in snaps and touches, as well as seventh in scrimmage yards among backs during the regular season. He was eighth at the position with 474 receiving yards and the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing backs.
Jones, who has posted yardage totals of 143 and 160 in his past two games, is a riskier bet to eclipse this over with Jamaal Williams back from injury, but his projection of 98.5 yards suggests the over is a decent play.
Pick: Jones over 91.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Completed games
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh: I love the situation here for the 49ers. San Francisco scores two weeks of rest and a home game, while the Vikings get just six days to prepare for their second monster road date in eight days. Remember, Minnesota is a dome team that has now played 11 of its 17 games indoors this season. As for those other six contests, the Vikings went just 2-4 straight up and against the spread when playing outdoors.
But the tipping point for me is the return of pass rusher Dee Ford, linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt, who are all expected back for the Niners on Saturday. Get a load of this: With both Ford and Nick Bosa on the field at the same time this season, San Francisco registered 24 sacks in only 164 snaps. But with Bosa or Ford or both on the sideline, the 49ers' defense recorded just 24 sacks in 801 snaps. The Kirk Cousins fairy tale ends in Santa Clara, California, on Saturday.
Pick: 49ers -7
Clay: Cousins has thrown for at least 227 yards in 10 of 17 games this season and has reached 207 yards in all nine road games. Though he has been short on volume (24th in pass attempts during the regular season), Cousins has made up ground with efficiency (his 69% completion rate and 8.1 yards per attempt were both top-seven at the position).
Game script figures to be an important factor this weekend, as the Vikings are seven-point underdogs at the top-seeded 49ers. Minnesota has called a passing play 46% of the time during its 11 wins but 63% of the time in six losses this season. San Francisco allowed only six quarterbacks over 226 passing yards during the regular season, but three of those came during the final four weeks of the season. After allowing 163.25 passing yards per game (fewest) during Weeks 1-13, the 49ers stumbled to 278.75 (10th most) during the final month. A better baseline for Cousins is 242 yards.
Pick: Cousins over 226.5 pass yards (-110)
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 46.5)
Fortenbaugh: Tennessee would love nothing more than to run the ball with Derrick Henry in an effort to control the clock while keeping soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson and company off the field. But there are some potential problems with that strategy.
First, Henry has carried the ball an exhaustive 66 times over the last two weeks, which includes some serious wear-and-tear via the season-high 34 rushing attempts he racked up at New England last Saturday. Is there still enough left in the tank to thwart a Baltimore defense that ranks fifth in the NFL against the run, has been resting for three weeks (they sat key starters in Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh) and has surrendered just 14.2 points per game since the franchise traded for cornerback Marcus Peters prior to Week 7?
As if that wasn't daunting enough, this is Tennessee's third road trip in three weeks (at Houston, at New England, at Baltimore), and it comes against a team that ranks first in the NFL in both first-quarter scoring and first-half scoring, which means an early deficit would require more Ryan Tannehill and less Henry. Ravens early, Ravens often, Ravens by more than 10 points.
Pick: Ravens -10
Clay: Despite playing only 45% of the offensive snaps, Mark Andrews averaged 56.8 receiving yards per game and hit the 47-yard mark in eight of 14 full regular-season games. A massive presence in the Baltimore passing game, Andrews handled at least seven targets in 10 games and enjoyed a team-high 25% target share. Andrews' usage actually increased down the stretch, as he ran a route on 63.0% and 62.9% of the team's pass plays in Weeks 15-16 (his fourth and fifth highest of the season). He put up yardage totals of 52 and 93 in those games.
The Titans allowed a ton of production to tight ends during the regular season, surrendering the seventh-most receiving yards (57.3 per game). In fact, the 272.3 passing yards per game allowed by Tennessee overall was also seventh most. Andrews projects for 64 yards.
Pick: Andrews over 46.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: During Tannehill's 11 starts this season, A.J. Brown is averaging 71.1 receiving yards per game and has reached 58 yards six times. Among 80 wide receivers with 50-plus targets during the regular season, Brown ranked first in yards per target (12.5), second in yards per reception (20.2) and first in yards after catch (9.0).
During Tannehill's aforementioned 11 starts, the Titans averaged 26.75 dropbacks in eight wins and 39.6 in three losses. That's notable with a pass-heavy game script likely on tap as 10-point underdogs at the top-seeded Ravens. The Ravens' efficiency against wide receivers has been terrific (7.1 yards per target allowed was fourth lowest during the regular season), but they faced 358 targets to the position (third most) as a result of teams combining to target running backs and tight ends a league-low 31% of the time against them. Brown projects for 65 yards, but if you think Tennessee will run too much to allow Brown to hit 58 yards, consider pivoting to Henry over 92.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Brown over 57.5 receiving yards