Week 13 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

We've reached Week 13 of the NFL season and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network are here to tell us what they like from the week's NFL slate. With Thursday's Thanksgiving tripleheader out of the way, we'll look at all of Sunday's games.

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Fortenbaugh 3-1 (26-22-1 on season)
Youmans 2-2 (24-18-1)
Kezirian 1-1 (12-18-1)
Bearman 2-1 (13-12-1)
Clay 2-1 (19-8)
Johnson 3-0 (17-20-1)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

Sunday's 1 p.m. games

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 46.5)

Fortenbaugh: The Ravens have hung 30+ points in five straight games, 40+ points in three straight games and are averaging a league-best 35.1 points per contest this season. Some of you might look to San Francisco's top-rated defense and think the reckoning is coming for Lamar Jackson and company, but be advised that mobile quarterbacks have given the 49ers fits, as evidenced by the 26-point and 25-point outings Kyler Murray produced against this squad, as well as the 27 points Russell Wilson hung on a Monday night in Santa Clara. Those are the three highest scoring totals any team has put up against San Francisco in 2019.

As for the 49ers, the NFC's top-rated team currently ranks second in the NFL in scoring (30.2 points per game), seventh in road scoring (25.8) and has one of the game's preeminent minds calling plays in Kyle Shanahan. This showdown has "Game of the Year" written all over it.

Pick: Over 46.5 points

Cleveland Browns (-2, 39.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Youmans: A little more than two weeks after the foot-brawl game in Cleveland, the Steelers get an opportunity for payback. The Browns were 3-point favorites in their 21-7 win on Nov. 14, so why are they laying two points on the road? Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its past six. Mason Rudolph, who started the game and the fight in Cleveland, has been benched in favor of Devlin Hodges. The QB switch should be a positive for the Steelers. Hodges does not need to worry about Myles Garrett, so that's another plus. In Hodges' first career start, he hit on 15 of 20 passes for 132 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a 24-17 victory over the Chargers in L.A. Pittsburgh, 3-1-1 ATS in its past five as an underdog, has the higher-ranked defense and plenty of motivation in a division revenge spot.

Pick: Steelers +2

Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45) at New York Giants

Fortenbaugh: I have a theory that because the 49ers caught so many people by surprise this season, a loss to San Francisco tends to undervalue that team the following week. After all, the Niners were an afterthought in the NFC West this season, yet Kyle Shanahan's crew is 10-1 and outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.4 points (second in NFL).

Case in point: Teams that have lost to the 49ers and then played the following week have gone 7-1 against the spread. Green Bay fits the bill after a humiliating 37-8 loss at San Francisco in front of a national audience this past Sunday night. Also take note that the Packers are 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread coming off a loss, with a 10-point victory at Dallas and an 8-point home win over Carolina. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped seven straight by an average of 11.5 points and currently rank 26th in pass defense. I like Green Bay to roll in this one.

Pick: Packers -6.5

Kezirian: The Packers looked horrible against San Francisco, but New York's defense is a remedy for that. The Giants rank 31st of 32 teams in yards allowed per pass attempt. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day, now that Davante Adams has returned and is healthier. The new-car smell on Daniel Jones has subsided, all while the Giants have lost seven straight games. They're getting a bit healthier at the skill positions but this is still a team devoid of defense. I like the Pack to win.

Pick: Packers -.5 in a two-team teaser with Saints

New York Jets (-3.5, 41) at Cincinnati Bengals

Bearman: These aren't the best teams in the NFL, but there are reasons to think they can combine for over 41 points. The Jets offense has been rolling the past three weeks, scoring 34 in all three wins and finally showing fans of Gang Green what an Adam Gase-Sam Darnold offense can look like. Granted, it was vs. the Giants, Redskins and Raiders, but all three have a higher DVOA defensive ratings than the Bengals (30th), according to Football Outsiders. One thing we didn't see coming was the Jets shutting down the Raiders. Entering, the Jets had allowed 25.5 PPG, with four consecutive opponents hitting at least 25 points from Weeks 7-10. Maybe they figured out something, but they also aren't facing the Ryan Finley-led Bengals. Andy Dalton is back and while Dalton wasn't having the greatest year before being benched after Week 8, the Bengals offense was gaining 51.6 more yards per game in his starts.

Pick: Over 41

Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 45) at Miami Dolphins

It is hard to handicap this game with all the injury questions. Last week, the Eagles played without Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Lane Johnson and Nelson Agholor. Tight end Zach Ertz missed practiced Wednesday and there are no guarantees any of them play this week. Take the 10 with Miami, right? As Lee Corso would say, "not so fast my friends." After their mini two-game win streak, the Dolphins have allowed 78 points to the Bills and Browns, failing to come close to a cover. Not a team you can trust. This is the first time Philadelphia has been a road favorite of 7+ in a Carson Wentz start. Each of the last five times Philadelphia faced a team with a losing record, the game went under the total, including all three this season (Falcons, Jets, Bears). ESPN's FPI has it closer to 11.2, so not much of a lean there. For us at Chalk, it's a pass.

Pick: Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (PK, 48.5)

Kezirian: Jameis Winston is a figurative roller coaster. He is second in passing yards and sits two touchdown passes behind the NFL leader, while also leading the league in interceptions by a wide margin. He could win the undesirable Triple Crown. The guy certainly keeps it entertaining, which is why the Bucs have gone over their total in nine straight games. But I think this is a good spot to back them. Not only have they won two of three, but they've remained quite competitive in all of their games. Their schedule has been tough, which is why a four-win team is 16th in ESPN's Football Power Index. By comparison, they rank four spots ahead of the eight-win Buffalo Bills.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off three blowout losses and there is no reason for December optimism. Jacksonville is in last place and the return of QB Nick Foles two games ago just continued the one-sided losses. Coach Doug Marrone is on the hot seat and this team has only demonstrated its ability to come unraveled when losing permeates. It just feels like two teams headed in opposite directions.

Pick: Buccaneers PK

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43.5)

Youmans: Ryan Tannehill has resuscitated the Titans' flat-lining offense. Tennessee, which averaged 16.3 points in the first six games, has averaged 29.4 points per game over the past five. Tannehill has 10 touchdown passes since Week 7, tying him for fourth in the league during that span. Running back Derrick Henry has produced at a similarly impressive level for the Titans, who are 4-1 SU/ATS in their past five games. But Tannehill and Henry will be facing a legit defense for a change. Indianapolis ranks 12th in scoring defense (20.5 PPG) and has allowed more than 20 points only once in the past five games. And remember, the Titans have been owned by the Colts, who won and covered the past three meetings and dominated this AFC South series when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. Jacoby Brissett has been only a minor drop-off from Luck. It's a good bounce-back spot for the Colts, who have lost three of four with each of the losses by four points or fewer. It's back to reality for Tannehill.

Pick: Colts -2.5

Johnson: The Colts do have a few extra days to prepare for this matchup coming off of their 20-17 Thursday night loss in Houston. We also are getting the better coach in Frank Reich (now 8-2 ATS in the division since taking over). But I ultimately think we are getting a slight market overreaction after the Titans ran through the Jacksonville defense this past Sunday. Jacksonville ranks dead last in the NFL against the run, allowing 5.4 yards per attempt. Indianapolis ranks No. 4 in adjusted line yards and No. 4 in stuff rate. Tennessee won't be able to rely solely on its rushing attack. The point spread should be on the other side of the key number 3, and we're getting -2.5, which is a worthwhile wager.

Pick: Colts -2.5

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-10, 40)

Bearman: The Redskins won last week, so naturally you want to fade them the next week. Laying 10 with the Panthers could work, but here's another way to fade Washington. Our friends in ESPN's Stats & Info department point out that the Redskins have scored two offensive TDs one time in the past eight games and that was vs. a Dolphins defense that ranks dead last in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The 19 on the scoreboard in last week's win? A kickoff return TD. 17 points the week before vs. the Jets? A pick-six in there. Before that? 3, 7, 17 (vs. Dolphins), 0, 9, 9. If Dwayne Haskins isn't taking selfies and gets the Redskins over 2 TDs, you tip your cap and move on.

Pick: Redskins team total under 14 (FanDuel)

Sunday's 4 p.m. games

Los Angeles Rams (-3, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Bearman: I think everyone saw the same thing Monday night. A Rams team that got beat in every phase of the game and has a long road ahead in terms of making the playoffs. While we need to give tons of credit to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense for utterly dominating the once-proud Rams defense, the real problem is with the offense. An offense that has scored 35 combined points over the past three games, averaging 270 yards per game. They still haven't figured out what to do with Todd Gurley and Jared Goff has reverted to rookie year Goff. The Cardinals, while not having wins to show for it, are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games, which includes the 49ers bad beat push, or it would be 6-1. The offense has been clicking, scoring 25+ in the past three and six of the past seven games before last week's bye. Kyler Murray has at least two passing TDs in his past three games (two of which were vs. 49ers) after only reaching that three times in the first eight games. He's also finding Larry Fitzgerald again as the future Hall of Famer has 17 catches over the past three games. The Cardinals are better than their 3-7-1 record, so expect them to keep this close at home.

Pick: Cardinals +3

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 39) at Denver Broncos

Youmans: Is Philip Rivers worth another shot? Maybe not, but I'll give him one here. Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in the past two games and he's well aware that most media types are announcing and writing his career eulogy. He's done and it's obvious. But most fading stars have a shining moment or two left. Rivers has defeated the Packers and Bears in the past month, so why not the Broncos? Brandon Allen went 10-for-25 for 82 yards with an interception and four sacks in a 20-3 loss at Buffalo in Week 12. Denver totaled just 134 yards against the Bills, so coach Vic Fangio is considering a QB change. Fangio's options are rookies Drew Lock and Brett Rypien. This is a must-win game for Rivers. The road team has won and covered the teams' past three meetings and Rivers' trends are better on the road. He gets one more shot.

Pick: Chargers -2.5

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 51.5)

Youmans: Overrated and overdue for a poor performance, the Raiders delivered just that in a 34-3 loss to the Jets last week. It was a flat spot and a lookahead spot with this important AFC West game at KC on deck. Derek Carr can be expected to play much better because the Chiefs make most opposing QBs look good. But Carr is without injured slot receiver Hunter Renfrow this week and that's a major loss with Renfrow ranking second on the team in receptions. It's tough to trust the Oakland offense to do its part to push this over the total of 51. Patrick Mahomes will do his part by exploiting one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. Bet on the Chiefs to score 30 or more.

Pick: Chiefs team total over 28 (Draft Kings)

Sunday's 8:20 p.m. game

New England Patriots (-3, 45) at Houston Texans

Kezirian: New England just played three straight high-profile games that are influencing public perception. The Patriots got dominated in Baltimore and then eked out wins over Philadelphia and Dallas in which their offense looked shaky. I understand the Pats have some offensive limitations, but I also think we can project a much better performance against Houston. First off, Tom Brady is 42 and understandably has struggled in tough weather conditions against the Eagles and Cowboys. All things considered, I thought he played fairly well against the Baltimore defense, orchestrating an offense that posted 20 points, and that's with settling for a field goal on the goal line. Those 20 points are the most the Ravens have allowed in the past six games. My point is that I have not given up on this New England offense and I think Brady will look a lot better in pleasant conditions in Houston, especially if the Reliant Stadium roof is closed.