Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate. (Note: Due to the uncertain status of Matthew Stafford, we do not currently have the Cowboys-Lions game up.)
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Fortenbaugh 3-0-1 (21-19-1 on season)
Youmans 1-0-1 (20-15-1)
Kezirian 1-2 (11-15-1)
Bearman 0-2 (9-11-1)
Clay 2-0 (14-7)
Preston Johnson 1-0 (13-18-1)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 50)
Youmans: Lamar Jackson is running and throwing his way into the MVP race with Russell Wilson. But let's not count out Deshaun Watson, who's at his best on the road. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Texans are 8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS away from home with only two losses by more than four points. Houston is 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a 'dog and 8-2-1 in its past 11 away. Baltimore is only 2-8-1 ATS in its past 10 home games. Trends are not everything, but the betting patterns are established with these teams -- the Texans are among the league's best road teams and the Ravens are among the league's worst home teams, especially when laying points.
Pick: Texans +4
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 49.5)
Youmans: Too many handicappers assume a bye week is always a positive. When a team is red hot and hits a bye, I consider it a negative. The Saints were in that position in Week 10 -- winning and covering six straight before a bye -- and came out flat. The offense had no rhythm, resembling Doug Kezirian on a dance floor. So while it was stunning to see the Falcons emerge with a 26-9 win in New Orleans, it was not a surprise to me to see Atlanta compete as a hungry 'dog. The Falcons' season win total was 8.5, so they were the league's biggest underachievers at 1-7 at the midway point. Atlanta had the edge on New Orleans in first downs (24 to 18), total yards (317 to 310) and rushing yards (143 to 52) and sacked Drew Brees six times. Matt Ryan returned from injury and ran an efficient offense. Was it a fluke?
The worst way to bet the NFL is to overreact to the previous week's results. This play is not an overreaction; it's more about the Falcons being better than they showed in the season's first half. With Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey slowed by a foot injury and with Atlanta winning six of the past seven meetings between these NFC South teams, there are reasons to believe in the Falcons in the underdog role again this week.
Pick: Falcons +5.5
Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 40) at Miami Dolphins
Clay: Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown eight touchdowns in seven full games (1.14 per game) and has either zero or one passing TD in five of those outings. The Bills, meanwhile, have allowed seven passing touchdowns all season, which is third-fewest in the league. They've allowed fewer than two passing touchdowns in eight of nine games this season, with the only exception being last week's 19-16 loss in Cleveland. Teams simply haven't been able or willing to throw against them, with the Bills allowing the third-fewest passing yards, third-lowest yards per attempt (6.1) and seventh-lowest completion rate (62%). Incredibly, Buffalo has allowed 43 passing touchdowns in 41 regular-season games since Sean McDermott took over as head coach in 2017. That's three less than the next closest defense.
Pick: Fitzpatrick under 1.5 pass TD (-110)
Clay: Kalen Ballage has appeared in 21 NFL games and has (A) cleared 19 rushing yards in a game three times and (B) required an untouched 75-yard touchdown run in Week 15 last season in the only game he was able to reach the 50-yard mark. A trade and suspension led to Ballage playing 88% of Miami's snaps last week against the Colts, and Ballage answered with 43 yards on 20 carries and two yards on four receptions. Horrifically inefficient at Arizona State, as a rookie and so far this season, Ballage is averaging 2.05 yards per carry, including 0.91 after contact in 2019. It will be shocking if his role isn't reduced this week and, even if it isn't, he's still unlikely to reach 50 yards. A better projection for Ballage is 41 yards, even against a Bills defense allowing 4.8 YPC (seventh-highest) this season.
Pick: Ballage under 50.5 rush yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: In 256 road games since 2000, the Bills have been favored a grand total of just 22 times (14%). What's even more surprising is that in those games, the Bills have been favored by six or more points just four times (2.5%). Enter the white-hot Dolphins (by their standards), who have won two straight and covered the number in each of their last five outings. There's value on the 'dog here, as Miami trailed the Bills by just 3 points with 1:55 remaining in the fourth quarter of their showdown on Oct. 20. For a game with a total of just 40 points, I'll gladly side with the home team getting +7.
Pick: Dolphins +7
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 40)
Fortenbaugh: The Vikings are an absolute freight train when it comes to games at U.S. Bank Stadium this season, as Minnesota is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS with a healthy scoring average of 29.7 points per game and a ridiculous margin of victory of 16.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the Broncos are averaging just 16.2 PPG on the road this season, rank t-22nd in yards per play, t-23rd in turnover differential and will lean on Brandon Allen at quarterback this Sunday in the first NFL road game of his career. Good luck!
Pick: Vikings -10.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43.5)
Johnson: Minshew Mania is behind us, and the return of Nick Foles under center for the Jaguars is here. This is a positive for Jacksonville. Jacoby Brissett expects to play for the Colts, assuming he practices without any hiccups the rest of the week, but teasing through the key numbers of three and seven is a profitable proposition long-term, regardless. With my strong conviction on the Jets this week, I used them in a teaser leg and paired them with the Jags.
Pick: Jaguars +8.5 as part of 2-team teaser (Jets +7.5)
New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 49.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bearman: Part of me is worried I am jumping on this train too late, with the Bucs' last seven games going over the total. But it's not like the Bucs are just getting past the total. In those seven games, Tampa and its opponents have averaged 65.3 points per game, over by an average of 16.9 points per game. That includes a 31-24 matchup between these teams back in Week 5. The totals have crept higher from 48 in September to 51.5 last week vs. Arizona, but we are back under 50 this week. That's likely due to the Saints defense ranking in the top 10 of most categories. But it is also the same defense that allowed the Falcons offense to wake up last week and has allowed 24-plus points in six of nine games this season.
I would not expect Drew Brees and company to struggle like last week, especially facing a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL at close to 300 pass yards per game allowed. Both offenses are capable of scoring in the high 20s, which helps toward reaching over the half century mark.
Pick: Over 49.5
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 38)
Johnson: Dwayne Haskins has been named the starting quarterback for the remainder of the Redskins' season. In his first career start in Buffalo in Week 9 (Washington was on a bye this past week), the Redskins failed to find the end zone in a 24-9 loss to Buffalo. Washington did its best to keep pressure off Haskins, rushing the ball 23 times despite trailing for nearly the entire game. Adrian Peterson ran for 108 yards on 18 carries, and if it hadn't been for his presence on the field, I'm not sure Washington would've scored at all. The concern is that the Redskins faced a Bills defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry this season (20th in the NFL), while the Jets' rush defense is the best in the league. They rank No. 1 in opponent yards per rush, adjusted line yards and stuffed rate. Washington won't have the luxury of leaning on Peterson and the running game this week. Is Haskins ready to lead this team? The Redskins' staff said otherwise for the majority of the regular season. I bet the Jets +1.5 (my projection is Jets -2.0), and I used them +7.5 in a teaser with Jacksonville +8.5 as well.
Pick: Jets +1.5 and +7.5 as part of 2-team teaser
Youmans: This game is the perfect example of why betting is beneficial to the NFL. There's no reason to watch this hideous matchup unless you have a bet on it. A 1-7 team with a one-point win at Miami is the favorite, and there's something wrong about that. Washington is starting a rookie quarterback in Haskins, who has thrown four interceptions and no touchdown passes in limited action. The Redskins need to run the ball effectively to protect Haskins from getting exposed, but as Preston mentioned the Jets a terrific rushing defense. It's time for Sam Darnold to step up and beat a rookie QB for the second week in a row.
Pick: Jets +1.5
4 p.m. games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5, 45)
Fortenbaugh: It's a short week for the Niners following Monday night's overtime loss to Seattle, which raised some intriguing questions about the San Francisco offense when tight end George Kittle is not on the field. Kittle (knee, ankle) was sidelined Monday and will likely miss Sunday's tilt with Arizona as the 49ers get set for a daunting three-game stretch vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore and at New Orleans. Without the Iowa product in Week 10, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo completed a season-low 52.1% of his passes with a season-low 5.39 yards per attempt average. As if the situation couldn't get any bleaker, top wideout Emmanuel Sanders is day-to-day with a rib cartilage injury that could sideline him. Remember, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals taxed the stalwart Niners defense for 357 total yards (season-high surrendered) and 25 points (second-most surrendered) in a 28-25 loss on Halloween.
Pick: Arizona +10.5
Bearman: The Niners have faced the Cardinals three times under Kyle Shanahan, getting swept in 2018 and winning by three points two weeks ago. The sweep in 2018 accounted for two of the Cardinals' three wins that season -- and those came with Josh Rosen at quarterback. Granted, the 49ers are WAY better this year, as evidenced by their 8-1 start, but Arizona hung in there in Week 9 as a double-digit 'dog and only trailed by more than the opening spread of 11.5 for one possession. The Cardinals only have three wins but are tied for an NFL best 7-3 ATS record, including five covers in the last six games. The 49ers are a double-digit favorite for the third time this season; they went 0-2 in the first two, including the non-cover at Arizona. Factor in short rest, an emotional, tough OT loss to Seattle, as well as injuries to key players (Kittle, Sanders) and it's a good spot to fade them a little.
Pick: Arizona +10.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5, 48.5)
Kezirian: I am as surprised as anyone that I am writing this, but the Raiders have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Jon Gruden has kept the team on track, despite going seven weeks without a true home game. This team is also playing its best ball lately, covering three straight and five of their last six. Additionally, winless Cincinnati is in pole position for the top overall pick and has shown no signs of improvement (1-5 ATS in last six). On top of that, the Bengals switched quarterbacks and are in classic rebuilding mode. This has all the makings of a blowout.
Pick: Oakland -10.5
New England Patriots (-3.5, 44.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Johnson: Everybody will be talking up the Patriots and Bill Belichick off of a loss with a bye week to prepare for Philadelphia, but Doug Pederson and the Eagles had a bye week of their own to prepare for New England. There were clear weaknesses exploited by the Ravens in Week 9, and there is no reason Pederson can't devise a game plan that attacks them, too. The concern with the Patriots before their matchup with Baltimore was their strength of schedule. At that point in the season, the Ravens were going to be the best team the Patriots had faced; it didn't go well. I grade the Eagles ever so slightly better than the Ravens, and my projection in this Week 11 matchup is Philadelphia +1.8. I'm happy to take the hook on the key number of three again and bet +3.5.
Pick: Eagles +3.5
8:20 p.m. game
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 40.5)
Clay: Even with Mitchell Trubisky struggling badly, Allen Robinson is in the midst of a very strong season. The Penn State product has cleared 63 receiving yards in five of his nine games and reached 60 yards in two others. Robinson is handling a hefty 27% target share (including a share of at least 21% in all nine games), which works out to 8.9 targets per game. Despite all of these positives, Robinson is set for what is likely to be his hardest matchup of the season in Week 11. Jalen Ramsey shadow coverage looms after the Rams' new No. 1 corner traveled with and held JuJu Smith-Schuster to three catches for 44 yards last week. A better baseline projection for Robinson is 58 yards, though that might be optimistic against one of the game's best corners.
Pick: Robinson under 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Stop looking at the Rams' offense for what it was and, instead, observe it for what it is -- a unit that ranks t-14th in yards per play, 20th in rushing and just surrendered four sacks while scoring a paltry 12 points coming off their bye in Pittsburgh last Sunday. As for the Bears, see Chicago for exactly what it is -- the NFL's 29th-ranked total offense, 27th-ranked scoring offense and ninth-ranked scoring defense. Points will be at a premium in the Coliseum on Sunday night as both offenses struggle mightily to matriculate the football down the field with any level of consistency. Take note that the under is 12-6 in games featuring the Rams or Bears this season.
Pick: Under 40.5 points
Kezirian: Both of these teams are pretty tough to figure out because you just never know what you're going to get with either quarterback. However, I like the Bears in this spot. The Rams are banged up on the offensive line, and this Chicago front should have a field day and rattle a skittish Jared Goff. It's never fun to back Trubisky, especially on the road, but I'm more than happy to grab 6.5 points in a game with a total of 40.5. It may be an ugly one, but sometimes you have to get involved in these types of games.
Pick: Bears +6.5