Plenty has changed since the start of the season. There are much different perceptions on some teams and players now that we have reached the midway point of the NFL season.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network offer some futures worth a look heading into the second half.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Super Bowl futures
New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl (+450)
Kezirian: With Drew Brees returning from injury, New Orleans has everything intact to make a Super Bowl run. At 7-1, the Saints are poised to earn home-field advantage in the NFC. Not only do they host the undefeated 49ers in Week 14, but also San Francisco has other road games in Seattle and Baltimore and hosts the Packers and Rams. The remaining schedule is much more favorable for New Orleans. Its toughest road games are Tennessee and Carolina. The Saints should be favored in the rest of their games, and I like their chances to finish strong.
The Saints have demonstrated that they are no longer a one-trick pony, ranking among the top teams in several defensive categories. Although Teddy Bridgewater exceeded expectations in Brees' absence, the defense carried the team. I did not see that coming. Plus, the offense still has the usual weapons in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. On top of that, New England showed vulnerability in Sunday's loss to Baltimore, which suggests that the Saints could even be favored over any AFC team.
Youmans: The Chiefs were my preseason pick in the AFC, but their defensive issues are a major concern. At 6-3 with Patrick Mahomes set to return, Kansas City is two games behind New England and will likely need to go through Foxborough in the playoffs. The same goes for the Ravens, who ambushed Bill Belichick and Tom Brady on Sunday but can expect payback on the road if they meet again in the postseason. I'm not betting against the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl, but I'll go with the NFC team to win it this time.
Brees' injury could be a blessing in disguise, as his arm strength was fading at the end of last season, and missing a month might make him stronger going into 2020. New Orleans' ability to win with Bridgewater said a lot and keeps the Saints alive for home-field advantage against the 49ers, Packers or Vikings. After getting robbed in last season's NFC title game, Brees and coach Sean Payton get the ultimate measure of revenge with their second championship.
Los Angeles Rams to win Super Bowl (22-1)
Johnson: The time is now to buy low on Sean McVay's Rams. Despite their "slow" 5-3 start, the Rams are only a half-game out of a wild-card spot. They have the fourth-best point differential in the NFC to this point in the season, and they'll be favorites in their next five games. The Vikings currently sit in the sixth spot in the NFC playoff race, but they will be underdogs in three of their next five games (facing the Cowboys, Seahawks and Chargers, all on the road). The Rams made multiple splashes in the trade market, highlighted by the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. His presence on a defense that already ranks No. 4 in DVOA can't be understated. Jared Goff and the offense need to be more effective, but that's where I trust McVay to get it right against a manageable schedule.
At a price of 22-1, the implied odds that the Rams win the Super Bowl are 4.3%. My projections expect the Rams to win it all 5.7% of the time, or a true price of +1654. As good as the 49ers, Cowboys and to some degree the Seahawks have looked, the Rams still project to be the better team. I rate only the Saints better. Similar to the Washington Nationals World Series future bet we made midseason at 25-1, the Rams are a profitable proposition at this price.
MVP futures
Russell Wilson to win MVP (7-5)
Youmans: No player has been better than Russell Wilson through the midway point of the season. The Seahawks are 7-2 mostly because of their quarterback. Wilson has 22 touchdown passes with just one interception, and his passer rating (118.2) ranks No. 1 in the NFL. This is a quarterback's award, but if there is odds value with a running back, it's with Carolina's Christian McCaffrey (4-1).
Deshaun Watson 8-1 to win MVP
Kezirian: Wilson is the favorite -- and for good reason. He is carrying the 7-2 Seahawks, whose suspect defense is forcing him to make plays. However, the NFL MVP is so contingent on team success, and with a point differential of only +18, I do not anticipate that success continuing for Seattle. Also, there is a strong chance the Seahawks don't win their division, given that San Francisco is a -425 to win the NFC West. The most recent MVP to hail from a team that failed to win its division was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Before that, the most recent quarterback to do so was Peyton Manning in 2008.
Meanwhile, Watson is leading a Houston team that is the favorite (-165) to win the AFC South. The quarterback is posting MVP-worthy numbers, accounting for 23 total touchdowns (Wilson leads the NFL with 25). He is behind Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson in terms of popularity, but Watson can certainly win this award. The 8-1 odds are worth a small play. If you can find 10-1 odds, that would be too good to pass up.
Division bet
Oakland Raiders to win AFC West (+450)
Kezirian: As a guy who laid heavy juice for the Raiders to miss the playoffs, I am surprised to be writing this. However, Oakland has impressed me with a level of competence and offensive execution I did not expect. The Raiders also have weathered a difficult stretch in which they went seven weeks without a home game. At 4-4, Oakland sits in second place behind 6-3 Kansas City. The Raiders host the Chargers on Thursday and then face the Bengals and Jets. I am not ready to buy the Chargers as a top-tier team, given the comments suggesting that the Packers did not approach that game with the proper professionalism.
On top of that, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes' return date is still uncertain. He has been out because of a dislocated kneecap and has battled an ankle injury. The Chiefs' defense has been atrocious, which means a Mahomes return does not guarantee wins. The Raiders are a frisky team with an offense that ranks third in yards per play.
Team to fade
Chicago Bears (opened 12-1 to win Super Bowl; currently 300-1)
Youmans: Why would anyone have faith in Chicago's coach-quarterback combo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky to suddenly figure things out? The Bears were a sharp underdog play Sunday at Philadelphia for some mysterious reason. I predicted Trubisky's demise and this team's downfall during the summer. The defense is legit, but the defense is worn down. Nagy's offense has produced more than 21 points only once in the past five games, and most of the 25 points the Bears scored against the Saints were in garbage time. Chicago is 2-6 ATS and should continue to be a bet-against team the rest of the way, with the playoffs out of reach. Play against or pass.
Team to follow
Philadelphia Eagles (opened 20-1; currently 14-1)
Youmans: It's important to begin to peak in December, just as Philadelphia did two years ago when Carson Wentz went down and Nick Foles took over at quarterback. The Eagles still have superior offensive personnel and the ability to get hot late. The betting public often overreacts to the first half of the season, and thought Wentz and the Eagles have been shaky, what matters most is the second half. The Cowboys are not running away with the NFC East.