Besides the Thursday night and Monday night games in Week 9, the home team won all 11 games played on U.S. soil. The week prior, it was the moneyline favorite parlays that were cashing at an extreme rate. I don't look to blindly bet home teams or stay away from teams on the road; the home-field advantage is accounted for in the point spread. But some people are more comfortable staying away from road teams -- especially short favorites -- and it's an approach that paid off in a big way in Week 9.
The Week 10 card as a whole is pretty ugly. I haven't placed a single wager yet. Interestingly enough, the market hasn't moved much, either (more on that later).
I've seen multiple people refer to Bills-Browns as a wild point spread, seeing as the 2-6 team is favored over the 6-2 team. I actually think the line is fair.
In the end, I'm never going to force action when I don't see a perceived edge, so this week is going to be light. I have one Super Bowl future that stands out to me, though, so let's get into it.
Portfolio checkup
Buy/sell
The time is now to buy low on Sean McVay's Los Angeles Rams. Despite their "slow" 5-3 start, the Rams are only a half-game out of a wild-card spot. They have the fourth-best point differential in the NFC to this point in the season, and they'll be favorites in their next five games. The Vikings currently sit in the sixth spot in the NFC playoff race, but they will be underdogs in three of their next five games (facing the Cowboys, Seahawks and Chargers, all on the road). The Rams made multiple splashes in the trade market, highlighted by the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey. His presence on a defense that already ranks fourth in DVOA can't be understated. Jared Goff and the offense need to be more effective, but that's where I trust McVay to get it right against a manageable schedule.
At a price of 22-1, the implied odds that the Rams win the Super Bowl are 4.3%. My projections expect the Rams to win it all 5.7% of the time, or a true price of +1654. As good as the 49ers, Cowboys and to some degree the Seahawks have looked, the Rams still project to be the better team. I rate only the Saints better. Similar to the Washington Nationals World Series future bet we made midseason at 25-1, the Rams are a profitable proposition at this price.
Early line moves: Week 10
There haven't been many significant line moves by this point in the week. It could be a sign of the market maturing as the season progresses or mere coincidence this time around. There were a few totals that moved down due to weather and winds on the forecast (Chicago and Cleveland), but I have one disagreement on a side in a stand-alone game Thursday.
Disagree
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Opening spread: Pick 'em
Current: Chargers -1
At one point on Sunday, the Raiders were -2 for their upcoming home matchup against the Chargers in Week 10. Despite winning and covering against the Lions, the Raiders are now sitting +1 in the market on a short week in a Thursday game. The Chargers looked great against Green Bay, too, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The Oakland offense has the third-best yards per play (YPP) in the NFL, despite facing the third-most difficult schedule to this point of the season. The Chargers have faced the 28th-ranked schedule yet grade out just 10th in YPP. The Raiders' offense ranks fifth in DVOA and the Chargers ninth. Defensively, Los Angeles has an edge, but it's fairly minimal with the teams graded 26th and 29th in DVOA, respectively. I'm curious to see if this line reaches +1.5 on the Oakland side, and if it does, I will certainly be using the Raiders as a six-point teaser leg to get them through key numbers to +7.5.
Pick: Raiders in a teaser if line reaches Oakland +1.5