College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 12, we trace the decline of a longtime Big 12 contender to a postgame press conference two years ago, advise against thinking that a team that's known for its ability to circle the wagons will do so in its typical rally spot and explore some historically large spreads, including one being laid by a historically bad offense.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
UMass Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats (-40, 55.5)
Noon ET, Saturday (Big Ten Network)
How bad is UMass? Well, the Minutemen have been outgained by 911 yards the past two games versus independents Army and Liberty, allowing 63 points in each. They've been outgained by 300-plus yards in five of the past seven games and have allowed 50-plus points in six of the past eight.
We'll never tell you that you have to back this sad bunch, and we do think there's some wisdom in the idea that a team can be so bad that it's untouchable at (almost) any price. But at 40 points versus a 1-9 team with a historically bad offense, it's at least time to think about it. Who would have thought that the biggest favorite in Northwestern history would be the worst team ever fielded by the program's greatest coach? But that's what's happening, and laying the weight is not an option.
Florida Gators (-8, 47) at Missouri Tigers
Noon ET, Saturday (CBS)
Beware when teams who -- after a high-stakes loss -- are constantly asked whether there's anything left to play for, then respond with a big home win. The most recent result often seems to have answered the questions, but the rebound is not always permanent. The same motivational issues the questioners were concerned about after the loss are often still there after the following week's win. That's Florida's challenge. If Missouri quarterback Kelly Bryant returns, this is a prime rally spot for a Mizzou team whose inexperienced offensive staff has failed it this season. The Tigers have routed the Gators each of the past two years and won four of the past six in the series.
Air Force Falcons (-10.5, 59) at Colorado State Rams
7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
The underdog has covered five straight in this series between Front Range schools, including three outright upsets. The Rams have rallied from a four-game losing streak to win and cover three straight games and have covered five of their past six.
Memphis Tigers (-9.5, 69.5) at Houston Cougars
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
Mike Norvell, who may be sought by both Arkansas and Florida State, immediately turned the tables in a series that had seen the Cougars win six straight prior to his arrival. Norvell has three wins and three covers in three tries versus the Cougars. Both teams are off bye weeks, but be mindful that while an open date is a very good thing following a huge win with GameDay in town, it might not be such a boon to a team that's publicly tanking.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-31, 62.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Since the open date following a one-point win at North Carolina, Clemson has won five straight by scores of 45-14, 45-10, 59-7, 59-14 and 55-10. Impressive, but none of those opponents had winning conference records. Wake Forest is another matter. The Deacs are a good team, a candidate for the second-best squad in the ACC this year. It's worth remembering Jamie Newman, Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington -- Wake's three best offensive players -- did not play in last season's 63-3 rout by Clemson. We thought this number was bloated when it opened at 32.5, and it's still pricey even though it has come down a tick.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling and why.
Sell: Oklahoma State Cowboys
We write a lot about how the great coaches are never satisfied, always searching for answers and trying to raise the program's ceiling.
When the Mike Gundy era ends in Stillwater and fans are trying to figure out what happened to the one-time regular Big 12 contender, some might point to the postgame press conference following the 11th-ranked and 3-point favorite Cowboys' 62-52 home Bedlam loss to the eighth-ranked Sooners in 2017.
Fans and media wanted to know why. They wanted answers. They wanted accountability. They wanted assurances. They received none of that. Instead, they got excuses, they got "oh wells," they got a Jim McElwain-style, "Wow, what a heck of a college football game; too bad the ball didn't bounce our way today." Gundy didn't acknowledge that allowing 600 passing yards was big deal, that turning in a scoreless third quarter in a game that was 38-38 at halftime was a big deal, that losing this particular Bedlam was a big deal. Because to him, it wasn't. It was the moment Gundy signaled that he was no longer searching, that "close" was the best this program could do, and that "close" was good enough.
And since then, that's all Oklahoma State has gotten out of Gundy. Since then, Gundy's Pokes have played 24 regular-season games. A full third of those are outright losses as a favorite of at least six points. And since then, Gundy's public appearances have seen the coach less circumspect, more combative, more sarcastic. And his teams have been less consistent, more entitled, less effective and more OK with it all.
This is a culture in decay and a program in decline. That decline has been masked by the rare presence of an All-American running back, Chuba Hubbard, whose emergence has temporarily remade an offense that has traditionally won on the strength of throwing and catching. Hubbard's spot on the roster is not permanent, but the decay is.
Plan of action: Lots of factors win and lose football games, but culture and depth call the shots in November. The surprise emergence of the nation's leading rusher has led the Pokes to a lofty 7-2 ATS record, but we'll be ringside to watch it crumble the next three weeks, tickets in hand. Don't be skittish about backing the two worst teams in the Big 12 against Oklahoma State the next two weeks. Those are the ones best equipped to cover versus a program that's losing the battle against complacency and entitlement, that no longer respects its opponents or prepares to dominate as urgently and consistently as it did before that fateful day in November 2017 when the unacceptable became acceptable.
Sell: Michigan State Spartans
The disaster that is Michigan State's 2019 season is a confluence of off-field, schematic and personnel issues, and together they are threatening to bring down one of the Big Ten's best coaches and most stable programs. Last week this reeling squad drew a beatable Illinois team that was on an unprecedented winning streak. Sparty had the benefit of an open date -- their second in three weeks -- to rally from both the mounting losses and roster attrition. It had the blessing of plenty of sharp action, which drove the price from 12 points all the way to 15 despite heavy public backing of the underdog. And it had a 31-10 fourth-quarter lead. It was the best spot for Michigan State in a while, maybe all year, and Sparty wasn't up to the task.
Plan of action: If you're thinking that the Michigan game is a likely spot for Little Brother to circle the wagons, just as prior editions have done, stop it right now. This is not a standard Michigan State team. It is not tough enough, confident enough or unified enough to do as its forebears have done. You just saw the best rally the Spartans had in them -- and it wasn't enough to beat Illinois at home. Sell this bunch hard one more time.
Around the slate
Winless Akron remains the only FBS team without a cover this season, but Vanderbilt, Nebraska and UMass are right behind with just one cover on the year. No team is unbeaten at the window, but Ohio State and Louisiana are close, at 8-1 ATS on the season.
SMU remains the nation's best "over" team at 9-1 to the over, the latest offense-only masterpiece a 59-51 shootout with East Carolina. When it comes to unders, San Diego State rides alone. The Aztecs are 8-1 to the under so far and remarkably have cleared all eight with more than a touchdown to spare.
This week's slate delivers some truly monstrous prices, with Ohio State's trip to Rutgers joining Northwestern in the land of the unprecedented. The Buckeyes are laying 53 points, the largest price in major conference history, and they're doing it on the road.
There are no totals in the 70s this week, with the Memphis at Houston and Hawai'i at UNLV matchups sporting the highest number at 69.5. There are also no totals lower than the 43.5 on Michigan-Michigan State, which could mean opportunity in bad-weather games come the weekend.