Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Fortenbaugh 0-2 (14-18 on season)
Youmans 1-2 (17-12)
Kezirian 0-2 (10-13)
Bearman 1-2 (8-8-1)
Clay 1-1 (8-6)
Preston Johnson 2-2 (12-17)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
9:30 a.m. game
Houston Texans (-1.5, 46.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Johnson: I wanted to use Jacksonville in a teaser leg with the Lions here in Week 9. Not only are two-team, six-point teasers through the key numbers three and seven profitable long term, but the Jaguars project really well in a London game that they have regularly made the trip out for each season. Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew leads the NFL in QBR on passes of 15 yards or farther down the field, and the Texans secondary is depleted with cluster injuries to the defensive backs. Considering the pass rush will be taking a severe blow as well with the J.J. Watt injury, the Jaguars are a perfectly good teaser leg at +7.5.
Pick: Jags +7.5 in two-team, 6-point teaser with Lions
1 p.m. games
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 42.5)
Clay: David Montgomery carried the ball a whopping 27 times in Week 8, but keep in mind that game script was a major factor, as Chicago led or was within one possession the entire game. The Bears averaged 30.25 called running plays during their three wins and Sunday's close loss, but 12.0 runs per game in their other three losses. Montgomery has fallen short of 61 rushing yards in four of seven games this season. This week he'll be facing a tough Eagles run defense that is allowing 67 rushing yards per game to opposing running back units (third-fewest), as well as 3.4 yards per carry (third-lowest). Ezekiel Elliott (111 yards on 22 carries) and Alexander Mattison (63 yards on 14 carries) are the only backs to clear 45 rushing yards against Philadelphia this season. Montgomery's projection comes in at 51 yards on 13 carries.
Pick: Montgomery under 60.5 rush yards (-110)
Bearman: I continue to fade the Bears at every turn. They still have only one good win on their resume and it was a defensive battle at home vs. the Vikings, who are a bad road team. The offense continues to be a mess, with some calling for Chase Daniel over Mitchell Trubisky. Let that sink in. The Bears offense is 30th at 5.4 YPP, 29th in total yards and ranks 28th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Even the top-notch defense has fallen off a bit, allowing a combined 77 points to the Raiders, the Drew Brees-less Saints and Chargers over the last three weeks.
The Eagles are a difficult team to figure out; they were blown out by Dallas one week and looked like Super Bowl champs at Lambeau a different week. After starting the season 0-3 ATS, Philly has covered three of its last five. Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott exposed some holes in the Eagles' secondary, but Trubisky and the Bears' passing offense are not in the same category.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Fortenbaugh: It's not the three straight losses that should have Bears fans worried, it's the daily dose of dysfunction emanating from Halas Hall that should sound the alarms. One minute, kicker Eddy Pineiro tells reporters that he wanted the ball spotted at the middle of the field for a game-winning attempt against the Chargers in Week 8 and the next he says he wanted it on the left hash, which is where the offense went out of its way to set him up. Matt Nagy's playcalling has come under fire, as the second-year head coach appears to have lost his patience with the media, and Trubisky is so far out of his element that you have to wonder if he has any supporters left in the locker room. The easiest way to beat Philadelphia is by throwing the ball against the team's below-average secondary, but can you trust Nagy and Trubisky to not only create the correct plan of attack, but to implement it as well?
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Indianapolis Colts (-1, 42.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Youmans: The Indianapolis offensive line is one of the league's strongest, paving the way for running back Marlon Mack and making things easier for Jacoby Brissett. Mack ranks eighth in the NFL with 590 rushing yards (4.3 yards per carry), and Brissett has been efficient with 14 touchdown passes to three interceptions. And the Steelers could be thin at running back. James Conner, who ran for 145 yards on 23 carries Monday, has a right shoulder injury and may not play. Pittsburgh's victory over Miami (which led 14-0 before predictably falling apart) proved nothing. The Steelers have defeated the Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins -- teams with a combined record of 3-20. The Colts were flat in home spots against the Broncos and Raiders, but they have played well on the road (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS). Remember: They beat Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Colts -1
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)
At CG Technology
Fortenbaugh: Mahomes or not, I want a big piece of the Vikings in this one, as Minnesota has posted four straight double-digit wins by an average of 14.4 points per game. During that stretch, Cousins has found his game and taken it to another level, completing 78.4 percent of his passes while averaging 315 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Look for the Vikings to control the clock by deploying the league's third-ranked ground game against a rush defense that currently ranks 30th against the run and tied for 29th in opponent yards per carry. Keep in mind that Minnesota is one of the few teams in the league that has the goods on defense necessary to limit Mahomes (if he plays) and the high-flying Chiefs.
Pick: Vikings +2
New York Jets (-3, 41.5) at Miami Dolphins
Bearman: Not alone here when I say most people won't have this one on their radar on Sunday. The game itself doesn't offer much value, as it would be a hard sell to lay 3 on the road with a Jets team whose only two covers came via a pick-six vs. Tom Brady's backup and the "still doesn't make sense" win vs. Dallas. Or do you feel comfortable with the 0-7 Dolphins, who call a timeout to set up a cover 0 blitz vs. third-and-20 up 11 points? Even up 14-0 and getting 14, the Dolphins were a blown whistle away from not covering vs. the Steelers. So what do we like?
The Dolphins, tanking or not tanking, have been outscored 130-20 in the second half this season. According to our friends at the Elias Sports Bureau, the -110 point second-half differential through seven games is the second-worst in NFL history (the 1966 Broncos were -114). I am not sure which part is worse -- scoring 20 points in seven second halves or allowing 18.7 per second half. The new coaching staff doesn't have much to work with on the field, but second-half adjustments should occur in the locker room. Until they do, look for a good Jets second-half line.
Pick: Pass on game, look for second-half Jets line
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 42)
Fortenbaugh: Assuming the Panthers get three points for home-field advantage, you're telling me that Carolina is just a half-point better than Tennessee on a neutral field? I'm pushing my chips to the middle of the table and calling that bet. If not for a Melvin Gordon fourth-quarter goal line fumble in Week 7 followed by an unbelievably terrible early whistle from the officials during the late stages of the fourth quarter in Week 8, the Titans likely would have lost six of their last seven games. Carolina surrendered 51 points off its bye week at San Francisco last Sunday, so look for the defense to batten down the hatches in an attempt to save some face. Remember, it's not as if Carolina is the first team the 49ers have embarrassed this season. San Francisco is defeating the opposition by an average of 16.6 points per game this year. But take note that those opponents have bounced back the following week to post a collective 5-1 mark against the spread.
Pick: Carolina -3.5
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 37)
Clay: Frank Gore might be deferring snaps to now-healthy rookie Devin Singletary, but the veteran is still Buffalo's top ball-carrier. In four games with Singletary also active, Gore has carried the ball 50 times on 103 snaps, compared to 20 carries on 124 snaps for his counterpart. Gore should get additional rushing opportunities this week, with Buffalo currently favored by 9.5 points at home against Washington. The Redskins have allowed 217 carries (second-most) and 909 rushing yards (fifth-most) to running backs this season. Gore has gone over 45 rushing yards in four of seven games this season. His projection this week is 59.6 yards.
Pick: Gore over 45.5 rushing yards (-105)
4 p.m. games
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2, 50.5)
Youmans: Jon Gruden deserves praise for the Raiders being 3-4 after a brutal stretch of schedule with five away games in six weeks. But Oakland's optimism is all about its offense. Derek Carr tops the league in completion percentage (72.1), and the Raiders scored 24 points or more in each of their past four games against good defenses. The Raiders rank 25th in total defense and 28th in scoring defense (27.4 PPG). The suspension of linebacker Vontaze Burfict was a blow, and rookie defensive end Clelin Ferrell, a surprise pick at No. 4 overall, is not making an impact. It was a major setback when rookie safety Johnathan Abram, another first-round pick, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1.
Detroit just attempted to deal its top cornerback, Darius Slay, at the trade deadline, and there is some dissension in the Lions' locker room. The Lions are 5-2 over the total this season. Expect a shootout between Carr and Matthew Stafford.
Pick: Over 50.5
Johnson: Stafford and the Detroit passing game rank No. 2 in the NFL in average depth per target (10.6 yards down the field). Stafford doesn't mess around with dink and dunk like seemingly half of the league nowadays, and the Lions have benefited from it. We have a matchup of the fifth-most efficient pass offense in the NFL overall going up against a Raiders defensive unit giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt (ranks No. 28). I'm taking +8 as a teaser leg with the Jaguars at +7.5.
Pick: Lions +8 in two-team, 6-point teaser with Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 51)
Johnson: The Seahawks have oustcored their opponents by just 12 points this season. Other teams that have a similar point differential are the Bills, Jaguars and Titans. According to my projections, all three of those teams are rated in the bottom half of the league. The Seahawks grade out slightly better than this group, but they aren't an elite NFL team despite a 6-2 record.
Seattle has rushed the football with the highest frequency in the league the last two seasons. In fact, considering how effective and efficient the Seahawks are through the air (8.1 yards per pass attempt), they run the football too often. In this particular matchup against the Buccaneers, it plays into what Tampa Bay does best. The Bucs are No. 1 in the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt, No. 1 in adjusted line yards and No. 2 in stuff rate. Offensively, Tampa Bay has turned it over at an unreasonable rate (four against the Titans in Week 8 and seven against the Panthers in Week 7). The Bucs had opportunities to win each of these games in the fourth quarters despite 11 total turnovers! I know it's a big if, but even if the Bucs can keep the turnovers down to a relative minimum, they will be in this ball game. Six points is too many (+4.7 is my true line), and the matchup advantages in the run game favor Tampa Bay heavily.
Pick: Buccaneers +6
Kezirian: Some teams are better as underdogs, and Seattle is one of them. The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this season, and this spread just feels too high. The Bucs are a bit of a headache, given Jameis Winston's knack for turnovers and their 2-5 record overall, but I still think they have enough to keep this within the number. Russell Wilson is carrying this team and compensating for its shortcomings. The Seahawks rank 30th in yards per play allowed, which is pretty telling for a 6-2 team.
Pick: Buccaneers +6
Cleveland Browns (-4, 39) at Denver Broncos
Bearman: I preface this by saying I've been fading the Browns since the beginning of the overhyped offseason with great success. It takes time for a team of acquired superstars to jell and, well, it's the Browns. A 2-5 ATS mark, including 0-3 the last three weeks, speaks for itself. I can also acknowledge (and this is another reason for fading them the first six weeks) that the opponents have included the Rams, Niners, Patriots, Ravens and Seahawks -- teams that have combined for a 31-7 record. Preston hit on buying the Browns in the second half earlier in the week. I'm just taking one week at a time, and this week the Browns get a Broncos team that is struggling on offense (26th in YPP and total yards and 25th in DVOA) -- and that was with Joe Flacco at QB. With Flacco out, Denver turns to Brandon Allen to make his first NFL start. With Pittsburgh (x2), Miami, Arizona and Cincinnati (x2) left on the schedule, a win over the Broncos might be just what the dysfunctional Browns need to turn things around.
Pick: Cleveland -4
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 47.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Youmans: After a slow start, Aaron Rodgers has found his groove in Green Bay's new offense. Rodgers, finally finished complaining about his coaches, is tied for second in the league with 16 touchdown passes and the Packers have averaged 30.7 PPG over their past six contests. The Green Bay defense, meanwhile, has allowed 22 points or more in five straight games. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn dumped offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt this week, and the immediate reaction should be a more aggressive approach. The running attack has stalled and the red zone has been a dead zone for Philip Rivers. Lynn said the Chargers will "throw it 50 times if that's what it takes to win." It might take that for Rivers to match scores with Rodgers.
Pick: Over 47.5
Fortenbaugh: After averaging 16.7 PPG during a four-contest stretch against the lowly Broncos, Steelers, Titans and Bears, the Chargers finally said enough and fired Whisenhunt. This will present an interesting challenge for Green Bay defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who will now need to prepare for a playcaller in Shane Steichen, who has -- wait for it -- never called plays in the NFL. The public is going to load up on the 7-1 Packers here after watching Rodgers and company win their fourth straight game last Sunday night in Kansas City. Meanwhile, I'm going to hold my nose and bet the Chargers to put on their best performance of the season now that a fire has been lit following the Whisenhunt dismissal.
Pick: Chargers +3.5
8:20 p.m. game
New England Patriots (-3, 45) at Baltimore Ravens
Youmans: Plenty of trends support the Patriots, and all of that is obvious. There are conflicting trends with the Ravens, who are 0-5 ATS in their past five home games yet 5-1 ATS in their past six as underdogs. The biggest concern for Baltimore will be Lamar Jackson's ability to run against Bill Belichick's disguised defensive schemes. John Harbaugh had a bye week to prepare Jackson and his defense for this challenge. Baltimore is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS at home after the bye since 2002. Harbaugh is a good coach who has given Belichick problems in the past. The narrative about New England's soft schedule is coming to an end. Tom Brady produced only a touchdown and a field goal at Buffalo in Week 4 and has not had to break a sweat on the road since. The Caesars line has dipped to +3, but 3.5 is available to underdog players at most books.
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Clay: The Patriots are averaging 71 offensive snaps per game (second-most) and 41 dropbacks per game this season. They're operating the game-script-adjusted pass-heaviest offense in the league. That has allowed Brady to clear 275 passing yards in four of his eight games, as well as reach 249 yards in three other outings. He's averaging 284 passing yards per game this season and ranks in the top five at the position in dropbacks, pass attempts, completions and yards. Offenses have been attacking Baltimore's pass defense often and deep down field, posting a 9.0 average depth of throw (fifth-highest), 7.8 yards per attempt (ninth-highest) and 275.7 passing yards per game (eighth-highest).
Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray each cleared 340 passing yards against Baltimore, whereas Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges did not. Brady's Week 9 projection comes in at 322 yards.
Pick: Brady over 275.5 passing yards (-110)
Clay: Adding on to what I hit on the Brady capsule, Julian Edelman is averaging a massive 9.9 targets per game this season, including 11-plus targets in each of his past three games and eight-plus targets in all but one game. Edelman has cleared 74 receiving yards in four of eight games. This week, he'll be working against a Baltimore defense allowing the second-most targets (163) and receiving yards (1,364), as well as the sixth-highest yards per reception (14.7) to wide receivers this season. Edelman's projection comes in at 82 yards.
Pick: Edelman over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: With Brady and Edelman projected to go over their lines, you can probably guess where I'm going with the Patriots' top running back. Sony Michel has fallen short of 66 rushing yards in half of his eight games this season and is averaging 58 rushing yards per game for the year. Offenses have tended to throw the ball against Baltimore, calling passes 68% of the time (third-highest). The Ravens have faced the second-fewest running back rush attempts (115) and allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (497) this season. Michel's projection comes in at 46 yards on 12 carries this week.
Pick: Michel under 65.5 rush yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Brady is a ridiculously impressive 20-3 lifetime at home during the postseason, but be advised that two of those defeats came at the hands of Harbaugh. Now, consider the following:
1. This matchup is in Baltimore, not New England.
2. It will be played in front of a lubricated Sunday Night Football crowd.
3. The Ravens have had two weeks to get ready for this game.
4. Baltimore is the best team New England has faced this season by a mile.
5. You're getting 3.5 points with the Ravens.
Additionally, Baltimore leads the NFL in both rushing (204.1 YPG) and time of possession (35:00), which is important to consider because New England's opponents have held the ball for an average of just 25:47 this season. That top-ranked Patriots defense has a chance to look vulnerable for the first time if Brady isn't holding the rock for close to 35 minutes while they rest and strategize on the sidelines.
Pick: Ravens +3.5