Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate:
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Fortenbaugh 0-2 (14-18 on season)
Youmans 1-2 (17-12)
Kezirian 0-2 (10-13)
Bearman 1-2 (8-8-1)
Clay 1-1 (8-6)
Preston Johnson 2-2 (12-17)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday night; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
9:30 a.m. game
Houston Texans (-1.5, 46.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Johnson: I wanted to use Jacksonville in a teaser leg with the Lions here in Week 9. Not only are two-team, six-point teasers through the key numbers three and seven profitable long term, but the Jaguars project really well in a London game that they have regularly made the trip out for each season. Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew leads the NFL in QBR on passes of 15 yards or farther down the field, and the Texans secondary is depleted with cluster injuries to the defensive backs. Considering the pass rush will be taking a severe blow as well with the J.J. Watt injury, the Jaguars are a perfectly good teaser leg at +7.5.
Pick: Jags +7.5 in two-team, 6-point teaser with Lions
1 p.m. games
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 42.5)
Clay: David Montgomery carried the ball a whopping 27 times in Week 8, but keep in mind that game script was a major factor, as Chicago led or was within one possession the entire game. The Bears averaged 30.25 called running plays during their three wins and Sunday's close loss, but 12.0 runs per game in their other three losses. Montgomery has fallen short of 61 rushing yards in four of seven games this season. This week he'll be facing a tough Eagles run defense that is allowing 67 rushing yards per game to opposing running back units (third-fewest), as well as 3.4 yards per carry (third-lowest). Ezekiel Elliott (111 yards on 22 carries) and Alexander Mattison (63 yards on 14 carries) are the only backs to clear 45 rushing yards against Philadelphia this season. Montgomery's projection comes in at 51 yards on 13 carries.
Pick: Montgomery under 60.5 rush yards (-110)