Week 6 college football betting lookahead: Florida overrated?

We intended Monday's weekly lookahead to feature a section noting games that were off the board at opening due to key injuries, but new Sunday market leader Circa Sportsbook has been fearless with its openers. And if a book is willing to open Purdue this week, then it clearly intends to open everything and let the chips fall where they may.

The Boilermakers are iffy on the services of both quarterback Elijah Sindelar and superstar wideout Rondale Moore, a duo that accounted for 89% of the team's yards and 100% of its touchdowns when both were healthy.

Consequently, the chips have fallen in the form of Penn State tickets. The Lions opened at -16.5 and were driven all the way up to -23.5 in a couple of hours.

Portfolio checkup

Which teams we're buying, selling or holding and why.

Eighteen undefeated teams remain after five weeks. Here's a quick look at where we stand on the six who have not yet cracked the top 20 of the AP poll.

Buy: SMU Mustangs

The Mustangs are the only team in America with a perfect record both on the field and at the window. Texas transfer Shane Buechele has been a revelation at quarterback, and this team is right there alongside UCF, Houston and Memphis in terms of the AAC's best collection of skill players. Mostly, though, it's a product of a highly capable coaching staff in its second year of taking over a program that was improved rather than ruined by its previous head coach. SMU is a legitimate AAC title contender, and when assessing the Group of 5 conference races, it's important to remember that the perceived powers in those leagues are not nearly as entrenched in their advantages as the heavyweights in Power 5 conferences.

Buy: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Like SMU's Sonny Dykes, Dave Clawson is a veteran head coach who has won everywhere he has been. Clawson has built the program's roster through redshirting and development, and like SMU, Wake is a veteran, upperclassman-heavy squad. The 2019 edition is reaping the developmental benefits of three consecutive years of bowl practices, and this year Clawson has a handful of All-ACC-caliber skill players to shoot it out with opponents as needed, something the Deacons couldn't quite do against the best offenses on the schedule last year.

Buy: Baylor Bears

Yet another quality head coach from Joe Paterno's tree, Matt Rhule is steadily remaking the flash of the Art Briles era into one of the tougher, more physical teams in the Big 12. But he's also getting outstanding quarterback and receiver play, and that makes Baylor a threat to score in bunches. Interim coach Jim Grobe cleaned up quite a bit of the mess and discord from Briles' ouster in 2016 and deserves a lot of credit for leaving a shattered program in a lot better shape than he found it and facilitating the Bears' quick rise under Rhule.

Sell: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck has recruited an enviable array of offensive skill talent as well, but this team lags behind in the trenches. The lines, especially on the offensive side, have great size but not enough athleticism and technique, and the pedestrian rushing attack will render the Gophers fatally one-dimensional against the better defenses in the Big Ten. The defense relies too much on a small number of difference-makers and is still building Big Ten-caliber depth across the board.

Hold: Appalachian State Mountaineers

We're still making a thorough study of first-time head coach Eli Drinkwitz and can't yet in good faith tell you that we have a read on whether the former NC State offensive coordinator is likely to sustain the Mountaineers' impressive record as Sun Belt overlords. The good news is that the head coach's side of the ball has looked great, but there are also red flags. The defense hasn't been anywhere close to as good as usual, and the production hasn't matched the results overall. App State has been outgained in two of its wins, and the margins in the other two belie the lopsided final scores. This team was clearly downgraded by the oddsmakers after the offseason coaching change and has not been asked to give quite as much weight as last year (laying 15 at home versus Coastal as opposed to the same price in Conway last year, for example). If that changes, it might be time to start selling. Next Wednesday will be telling, as the team heads to Lafayette to play the team it beat in the SBC title game last season and one that is surely the best team in the Belt this year, if it's not Arkansas State or App State itself.

Hold: Memphis Tigers

Memphis has some of the best top-to-bottom talent in the AAC, and a good staff that got a huge boost by landing an amazing special teams strategist in 112-game winner Pete Lembo, an outstanding coach whose skills, age and record suggest a Hall of Fame career should he choose to return to head coaching at the lower levels rather than remain an FBS assistant. But the staff took a blow with Auburn's poaching of Kenny Dillingham -- Mike Norvell's right-hand man -- and that is clearly affecting the normally high-powered offense, as are the unit's injury issues. The Tigers are still among the upper division squads in the American and a danger to programs in better leagues, but we're not yet sure if they're the clear biggest threat to supposed league favorite Central Florida.

Around the slate

• There are 18 unbeatens but only three winless teams: Akron, New Mexico State and Rice. The Zips, ignominiously, are also one of the four teams who remain winless against the spread, along with Georgia Tech, FIU, Vanderbilt and Virginia Tech.

• You knew Georgia Tech would struggle, right? With a new staff, and after a decade of recruiting to a unique system that's now scrapped in favor of something radically different, major growing pains on the Flats seemed obvious and certain. But you also knew that everybody else knew this too, and common knowledge is rarely a recipe for easy ATS results. Often it's not a matter of some secret inside scoop, but just a matter of degree. And sometimes that degree is a matter of inches -- two of the Jackets' ATS failures have come by a single point, as have two of Vandy's. Don't kick yourself too hard if you just "knew" the Jackets would be lousy but haven't been pounding the other side all year.

• The flip side contains four teams who are unbeaten at the betting window: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Louisiana and SMU. If you bet Auburn in the opener against Oregon, you might have felt fortunate to cover. But since then, the Tigers have rolled off four more ATS victories, with each successive win by a greater ATS margin than the last, covering by 2, 4, 12 and 25 points. It's the offensive growth that's outpacing the oddsmakers' adjustments. Auburn's first two games went under the total, and the Tigers also went under their team total. The past three have all gone over and have all seen the Tigers get on top of both the spread and the team total by increasing margins.

• No totals opened above 70 this week, though three sit at 69: Utah State at LSU, Western Michigan at Toledo and New Mexico State at San Jose State. A pair of Conference USA tilts boast the week's lowest totals at 45: WKU at Old Dominion and Rice at UAB.

• The 46.5 points Notre Dame is laying Bowling Green is easily the week's steepest price, with Wisconsin -36 versus Kent next. Georgia (-23.5 at Tennessee) and Boise State (-21.5 at UNLV) are the week's biggest road chalk.

• Oklahoma State (-8.5 at Texas Tech) and Arkansas State (-7 at Georgia State) are the only two teams in the country who play four road games in the season's first six weeks. Both are favored on the road this week and have an open date on deck in Week 7, so make sure you understand the physical and mental effects of the schedule on each of these teams before wading into action this week.