College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
Join us for opening week as we preview an intersectional revenge matchup, look at two teams with unexpected issues on one side of the ball coming out of camp and remind you that the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines aren't the only heavyweights in the Big Ten.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise listed.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling and why
Buy
Over/under wins: 8
National title odds: 125-1
Big Ten and national storylines abound for retooling Ohio State and overdue Michigan, but don't sleep on Little Brother despite a tough schedule that counts both aforementioned bluebloods plus the past two West Division champs among five Big Ten road games.
Like Michigan, Sparty is in the process of modernizing a largely smashmouth offense. But while Jim Harbaugh followed Nick Saban's lead in bringing in outside coaching talent to run that side of the ball, Mark Dantonio is keeping his offensive overhaul in house. The entire offensive staff returns, but there's a new playcaller and every coach has been reassigned to his original position of expertise.
We love the chemistry and unity on this unselfish staff, and that has trickled down to the players, several of whom returned to school despite projecting to go in the early rounds of the 2019 NFL draft. That means that both All-America caliber star power and ample depth return to a defensive unit that joins Alabama as the only programs to finish in the top 10 in total defense six times since 2011. Quarterback Brian Lewerke and the offense were rarely near full health last year, so a lot of players had time on the field, and now that unit has some depth as well.
This is a focused, unified team that has had a tremendous offseason and knows how to win on the road, which makes Sparty more than a dark horse Big Ten contender despite the demands of the schedule. Being a large home favorite is Michigan State's worst ATS role, so be aware that the best opportunities to back this crew might not come in the first two weeks versus Tulsa and Western Michigan.
Over/under wins: 8
National title odds: 45-1
Another team with great unity that saw a handful of players pass on the NFL draft to play their senior seasons. Both the polls and futures markets make Auburn the sixth-best team in the SEC, but we're not buying that fantasy. This is a well-led, tight-knit group that "rides for the brand," as this year's team slogan promises.
The Tigers are also as strong as anyone in the nation along the line of scrimmage on both sides. That advantage, elite special teams and a diverse array of skill players has us thinking that the Tigers can overcome a freshman quarterback and stake a claim in the SEC's top three. This team has the talent to run with anybody and the backbone to keep its head down and keep improving no matter what happens early in a campaign that won't truly be judged until November home dates with Georgia and Alabama.
Sell
Iowa Hawkeyes offense
Over/under wins: 7.5
National title odds: 250-1
More Iowa fans are worried about a defense that loses its top four tacklers and returns only one starter on the front seven than an offense that just logged its best scoring production since 2002 and returns accomplished three-year starter Nate Stanley under center, six starters overall and is as talented a collection of skill players as the Hawks have fielded in recent years.
We've seen three big red flags in camp, though, and expect this offense to disappoint over the first part of the season. Multiple wideouts have missed practice time, making it tough to establish timing and rhythm within a passing game that is replacing its top three pass-catchers, including the unprecedented loss of two first-round draft picks (T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant) at the tight end position.
And that passing game might need to drive the train at first. While the tackles are solid, the interior offensive line needs a lot more development before it's ready to anchor a productive running game. Iowa is still very much a run-first team, and if the ground game is slow out of the gate and the receivers are behind as well, that puts a lot of pressure on Stanley, and our camp read is that the senior is already putting too much pressure on himself heading into this season. Stanley looks like a guy who will need some time to get in sync with his receivers and comfortably settle in with the 2019 offense.
Alabama Crimson Tide defense
Over/under wins: 11.5
National title odds: +240
Much of the starting lineup has been limited in camp, and the staff has been cautious with the others. The linebacking corps is perilously thin, with two of the four starters coming back from serious injury, one moving to a new position of greater responsibility and the other a freshman pressed into service for a veteran injured in camp. All the shuffling and youth have made it difficult for this unit to learn to play unified team defense. This side of the ball is very green after the starting 11 and just doesn't have much functional depth right now. The roster is obviously talented, so the bench probably will develop nicely over the course of the season, provided the Tide can avoid further injuries, but don't expect this crew to meet Nick Saban's standard early in the year.
Bama will probably be an "over" team in September and Iowa an "under" team. You can of course attack a particular side of the ball with standard sides and totals, but when you have reason to believe that the market and prevailing narrative has misjudged one platoon, don't forget to shop for player props and especially team totals, plus any available derivatives like halves and quarters.
[Editor's note: Linebacker Dylan Moses is likely out for the season, after suffering a knee injury at practice.]
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for.
UCLA Bruins (+3) at Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats were two-touchdown underdogs but handled the Bruins 26-14 in last year's opener at the Rose Bowl en route to an 11-2 season. That game film isn't worth much now, because UCLA in Year 2 of the Chip Kelly era will be a much different team than the one that took the field in Kelly's first game as coach. All but three starters return, and the man tasked with turning those favorable percentages into improvement went 46-7 the last time he coached in this league. Understanding how radically different this year's challenge is -- and doing it while distracted by the uber-hyped Week 2 shot at an Ohio State program the Bearcats haven't bested since 1897 -- is a tall order for a Cincy squad that knows UCLA will be better but might be shocked by exactly how much. On the to-do list for this week: scrutinize the Bearcats' prep for any signs of overconfidence and check the status of top Bruins wideout Theo Howard, who has been limited the entire camp.
Tough spots
Think twice before backing teams facing conditions that often portend a lackluster performance.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-21) at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Always make an effort to see the game -- and the opponent --- through the players' eyes.
Mississippi State rolled up more than 600 yards of offense en route to a 56-10 rout of the Ragin' Cajuns last year. But that was with Nick Fitzgerald under center. Besides Fitzgerald, the Bulldogs are replacing four All-Americans. Key leaders have departed on both sides of the ball, and it'll be hard for the younger generation to muster appropriate respect for a Louisiana team that won't resemble the one that offered no resistance last year in Billy Napier's second game as a head coach. Now a more seasoned group all around, the Cajuns will test a rebuilt State defensive front with three SEC-caliber backs and an all-senior offensive line.
It's not hard to craft a hypothesis that an overconfident State squad with little reason to fear the opponent will be less than 100 percent focused on the game during this unusual road trip to the Big Easy. Identifying spots like this is a good start to the week, but it's not enough. Now you pay attention -- to all the information and clues you can gather from what players, coaches, fans and everybody in the program do, say, tweet and post.
Check back on Friday, where we'll tell you what we learned about Mississippi State's approach to the Superdome tilt with the Cajuns, and every week throughout the season when we'll share news, observations, lessons and reads from practice and preparations around the country to help you make your bets.